The only way you could pull off something like this, especially on 11 bars, would be with the element of surprise on your side. That makes me guess this a-hole is bluffing. Not that you can count on that.
Yeah, I don't see how someone is going to sneak poison into the drinks of 55 people after publicly announcing their intention to do so. Not bloody likely!
On the other hand, someone cuckoo enough to write those letters has probably had suspicious behavior in the past that will lead the authorities straight to their door, as in the case of the Unabomber.
I am a science nerd, and have to point out that it is not a good idea to scale up LD50 by weigh. The doseage will depend on metabolic variation, organ size, etc.
Jonathan, with your background, I would have thought you would know this, but apparently not: a pill that says "200mg" weighs a lot more thatn 200 mg; it contains 200 mg of the active chemical but most of a pill is just buffer substance. 2g of ricin is nowhere near as big as 10 ibuprofin pills, and 70mg would be a barely visible trace amount. It would be no problem to hide that much in a drink, even if it didn't dissolve.
By the way, here's another scary thing about ricin: it's not too hard to prepare without sophisticated equipment. You can get it from castor beans.
It's on the King 5 website now as well and mentions both the Seattle police and the FBI but says the joint terrorism task force isn't involved yet.
I was going to say something similar to David, but I didn't want to contradict anything Mr. Science says because he makes me nervous. I'll just add that it may be difficult but not impossible to manufacture ricin but it is a big risk to the person doing it (for example the guy in the Las Vegas hotel room).
I think at the very least someone could, if all their ducks were in a row, pull off making a bunch of people very sick. The question is if the purpose of writing the letters was to make people fearful or to actually carry out the threat. In which case, it was probably kind of dumb to send the letters ahead of time.
PopTart's comment contains the key insight that explains why the police probably aren't too worked up about this danger: Anyone who seriously wanted to do this and was smart enough to pull it off wouldn't make his task harder by advertising it beforehand. Almost certainly these letters are from someone who couldn't or wouldn't pull do the deed, but saw in it an easy way to instill fear in some people he hates.
Paranoid @ 13: If you are snorting white powders you got from strangers in bars, there is a very long list of risks you should be more worried about that ricin poisoining.
"Anyone who seriously wanted to do this and was smart enough to pull it off wouldn't make his task harder by advertising it beforehand."
Why do people believe that a crazy person will behave rationally in the prosecution of a hate crime? You sound like a smart guy, David, I'm sorry to pick out a quote from you but it was handy.
It's likely the person is just a blow hard, but also possible that he thinks himself smarter than the police, or worse, on a divine mission. Regardless, the threat in itself is a crime and should be taken seriously.
@11 -- even going with J's numbers -- if 2.1 g of ricin is the same as 10 ibuprofen pills (are we talking normal 200 mg version or the 800 mg super ibu pill?), 70 mg of ricin (enough to kill a person) would be one third of one pill. I could crush that in a drink. Unless it was one third of one 800 mg ibu super pill, then no.
Let's not forget that injection is -- by far -- the most dangerous way to administer the stuff.
The KGB executed a man with just the amount of ricin that could be injected into a tiny hole in a BB. They administered the BB via a glorified pellet gun.
Honestly, the only way this person could target this and have it work is to go for the airborne route - putting it into individuals' drinks would just not be effective given the number of sites they say they're targeting. All the sites might want to make sure that their ventilation systems are reasonably secure or keep an eye on them.
Given that they say they'll do "at least five" targets at each location, airborne may not be the plan... but it's a good thing to keep in mind.
In January its so nice
While slipping on the slidey ice
To sip hot chicken soup with ricin
Sippin' once, sippin' twice
Sippin' chicken soup with ricin!
You know, you can find many lethal things, some of which can destroy entire buildings, just under your kitchen sink and in your bathroom cabinets. And in your laundry room.
However... If they're in it for the attention and celebrity, they might realized that after an attack, lots of goofballs will come out of the woodwork and claim credit. Sending the letters ahead of time helps to make sure that doesn't fly. And if he succeeds even after giving warnings, then pulling it off increases his stature.
I think it's fake because the letter is so preciously written and overly melodramatic. But you never know...
So how often do you see people doing lines in the back room of your average gay bar? That seems like a good way to distribute the stuff by inhalation. Don't know how common that is but I think I would lay off the nose candy if I lived in Seattle.
There's a potentially fatal error in real-life scientist Jonathan Golob's research. The generally-accepted LD50 for ricin in humans is at best 30 MICROgrams(mcg)/kilogram(kg) - not 30 MILLIgrams/kilogram.
In short, he's off by a factor of 1,000 - 10,000 (most sources give LD50's in the 3.0 mcg/kg ballpark).
The LD50 for ingested ricin (like you'd get in a drink) is a thousand fold higher than for inhaled or injected. As it says in my post. My numbers are correct, coming from a carefully curated medical site. Yours are from random shit found on google. You fail.
Don't believe me? From TFA to which I linked: "The median lethal dose (LD50) in mice is 30 mg/kg, or approximately 1000-fold higher than by injection or inhalation."
On the other hand, someone cuckoo enough to write those letters has probably had suspicious behavior in the past that will lead the authorities straight to their door, as in the case of the Unabomber.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/1688…
Hence the post. JAMA is by no means my favorite journal, but they do this sort of article so well.
Kateness--
"Mice aren't little people." Yup.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/wo…
By the way, here's another scary thing about ricin: it's not too hard to prepare without sophisticated equipment. You can get it from castor beans.
"Seattle police say they are taking this threat very seriously and are working with multiple agencies to resolve this case."
I was going to say something similar to David, but I didn't want to contradict anything Mr. Science says because he makes me nervous. I'll just add that it may be difficult but not impossible to manufacture ricin but it is a big risk to the person doing it (for example the guy in the Las Vegas hotel room).
I think at the very least someone could, if all their ducks were in a row, pull off making a bunch of people very sick. The question is if the purpose of writing the letters was to make people fearful or to actually carry out the threat. In which case, it was probably kind of dumb to send the letters ahead of time.
Why do people believe that a crazy person will behave rationally in the prosecution of a hate crime? You sound like a smart guy, David, I'm sorry to pick out a quote from you but it was handy.
It's likely the person is just a blow hard, but also possible that he thinks himself smarter than the police, or worse, on a divine mission. Regardless, the threat in itself is a crime and should be taken seriously.
God, who's making up these numbers?
The KGB executed a man with just the amount of ricin that could be injected into a tiny hole in a BB. They administered the BB via a glorified pellet gun.
Given that they say they'll do "at least five" targets at each location, airborne may not be the plan... but it's a good thing to keep in mind.
Silent but Deadly.
While slipping on the slidey ice
To sip hot chicken soup with ricin
Sippin' once, sippin' twice
Sippin' chicken soup with ricin!
Maurice Sendak and Carole King I hate just a little more.
Just saying.
However... If they're in it for the attention and celebrity, they might realized that after an attack, lots of goofballs will come out of the woodwork and claim credit. Sending the letters ahead of time helps to make sure that doesn't fly. And if he succeeds even after giving warnings, then pulling it off increases his stature.
I think it's fake because the letter is so preciously written and overly melodramatic. But you never know...
In short, he's off by a factor of 1,000 - 10,000 (most sources give LD50's in the 3.0 mcg/kg ballpark).
Did nobody bother to check this?
google ricin + ld50 + microgram
The LD50 for ingested ricin (like you'd get in a drink) is a thousand fold higher than for inhaled or injected. As it says in my post. My numbers are correct, coming from a carefully curated medical site. Yours are from random shit found on google. You fail.
Don't believe me? From TFA to which I linked: "The median lethal dose (LD50) in mice is 30 mg/kg, or approximately 1000-fold higher than by injection or inhalation."