Blogs Nov 7, 2012 at 6:51 pm

Little Drama in Today's Ballot Drop, as King County Heads Toward Record Turnout

Goldy
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Comments

1
Actually looks like R-74 has about another 10k in the lead vs where it was last night.

But yeah, I was worried that it supporters called it too soon but after today's drops I'm getting ready to call it myself.
zzyzx on November 7, 2012 at 6:54 PM Report this
2
This race is over. Why isn't it being called yet? McKenna would have needed a dramatic break his way in order to indicate a possibility that he'd overtake Inslee.

I'll go ahead and call it. Inslee wins.
Timothy on November 7, 2012 at 7:07 PM Report this
3
Can we expect a post later tonight once you've run the data through your spreadsheet? It would do much to ease my mind.
on November 7, 2012 at 7:14 PM Report this
4
While I was knocking on doors and canvassing for Jay Inslee I stopped and asked 30 complete strangers in Seattle whether they had voted on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. I asked people of all races, ages, and socio-economic backgrounds on Capitol Hill, Beacon Hill, Hillman City, the Central District and Madison Valley. Out of the 30 strangers that I asked only one person told me that he didn't vote because he wasn't registered. It's not perfect but 29 out of 30 isn't bad.
historyteacher on November 7, 2012 at 7:19 PM Report this
5
Umm... am I missing something here? The Secretary of State already provides a spreadsheet for you: http://vote.wa.gov/results/current/expor…
Tiffany on November 7, 2012 at 7:22 PM Report this
6
The new drop has improved King county's approval rate of R74, from 65.48% to 65.66%. That means today's ballots were about two percent better (in King) than the earlier ones. Ref-74 is a shoe-in.

Island County also switched from "no" to "Pro" with later ballot drops, and -- just for fun -- San Juan County is not only the most "pro-" county (70% !), but it even supported R74 at higher rates than it supported Obama ("only" 67%).
G g on November 7, 2012 at 7:29 PM Report this
7
@5 The Secretary of State's spreadsheet doesn't do what my spreadsheet does. He's providing a running total. I'm collecting daily data so that I can compare day to day trends.

So while I grab data from the SOS spreadsheet, there's a bit of massaging required.
Goldy on November 7, 2012 at 7:29 PM Report this
8
Can you please do an analysis on the trend in the Secretary of State race?
rzn2be on November 7, 2012 at 7:59 PM Report this
9
@8 - I second your request, and I'm also wondering if I-1240 might still lose, despite all the $$$ spent to pass the lousy piece of garbage
Ebenezer on November 7, 2012 at 8:40 PM Report this
10
I figure 1240 at 51.14% yes if the ballots continue on the same yes/no/novote in each county and the remaining to count figure in each county is close.
DJSauvage on November 7, 2012 at 9:34 PM Report this
11
Argggghhhh! The Secretary of State NOT going our way YET. Kathleen Drew losing by 1% - a little less than 25 thousand votes. But a whole lot of King County votes still need to be counted, so when all is said and done, Kathleen might end up beating her Tea Party Republican opponent by the length of Goldy's dress. I'm just fucking pissed at the Dems that didn't vote all the way down the ballot. P.S. Still recovering the party...
Occupy Seattle on November 7, 2012 at 9:51 PM Report this
12

Pressure on to oust or reform Chu

Obama's Second Term Could Herald Renewed Push for EVs, Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicles

http://www.insideline.com/car-news/obama…
Supreme Ruler Of The Universe on November 7, 2012 at 11:41 PM Report this
13
Why is the Secretary of State office important? (That's a serious question.)
sarah70 on November 7, 2012 at 11:45 PM Report this
14
@4 - Yet, 84% of the registered vote is ~60% of the eligible pop of King County
anon1256 on November 8, 2012 at 12:02 AM Report this
15
@13: They run elections!
Retiring GOP Secretary Sam Reed was very fair and moderate. But you can see in other states, some GOP Secs of State make ballot access complicated and unfair (e.g. Ohio's current and previous GOP Secretaries of State). Not saying the GOP candidate here is like those douchebags, but speaks to the importance of the office.

And the Sec does lots of other things too. But elections is probably the most important.
BelieveInNuances on November 8, 2012 at 12:02 AM Report this
16
On a side note send a letter to the White House to tell Obama he won the election, the GOP lost. He has no reason to cave on Social Security or Medicare.
Cato the Younger Younger on November 8, 2012 at 3:40 AM Report this
17
@13 In short: Katherine Harris. She was Florida's secretary of state during the 2000 presidential election and was instrumental in helping him win.

Republicans often try to supress the vote so having a conservative Republican in charge of elections is a problem for those who believe in democracy.
on November 8, 2012 at 6:45 AM Report this
18
Do the outstanding King County votes come from the entire county or by precincts?

If it is the latter and the outstanding precincts come from the eastside than McKenna still could have a shot. Yikes! If the outstanding ballots come from all over King County, than why hasn't he conceded?
Mrs. Dalloway on November 8, 2012 at 7:04 AM Report this
19
@13 Because it can be a stepping stone to higher office (i.e. governor, senate). Wyman has said that's her intention.
rzn2be on November 8, 2012 at 7:18 AM Report this
20
@18 While ballots are sorted by precinct upon arrival, and then processed in batches, these batches are generally processed chronologically. So the only trend we can really see from the daily drops is whether late voters trended one way or another.

It's certainly possible that some precincts are underrepresented in the count thus far, but a precinct level analysis is beyond my scope.
Goldy on November 8, 2012 at 9:01 AM Report this
21
Thanks Goldy for the info. You know your stuff.
Mrs. Dalloway on November 9, 2012 at 10:06 AM Report this

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