I'm surprised they haven't started blaming Obama. Like he can do a goddamn thing. Russia will always suck their blood.

I have a Ukrainian friend who's been explaining all this to me. It's pretty complicated. One of the problems with the protesters is, uh, Nazis. Like actual Nazis (Svoboda) who want to exterminate the Jews and restrict citizenship to ethnic Ukrainians. But you also have more liberal people who look to the West. On the other side, you have people who are either ethnically Russian, or think they are (is a Russian whose family arrived in the US in 1920 a Russian or an American?) and/or are economically dependent on Russia.

Both sides are led by fantastically corrupt people, including people Westerners are attracted to like Yulia Tymoshenko. There are responsible anti-corruption politicians but they do not have massive support.

The economic problem is that Russia is a collapsing shithole but it has offered Ukraine a deal that's pretty hard to turn down: cheap gas. Their economy is wholly dependent on cheap gas to power their iron and steel industries, for instance. In contrast, the EU is offering them...austerity, along with the frustratingly vague promise of a heavenly afterlife in the bosom of unspecific prosperity. And remember, only 13% of Ukraine's exports go to the EU; they're economically tied to Russia already.

In the long run, the EU is obviously the way to go. In the short term, Russia's offering a good deal for Ukraine, but for how long? Going with Russia includes all sorts of other negatives. The leaders on both sides are dickheads. The few good people are mostly sidelined -- my friend suggests Arseniy Yatsenyuk and/or Vitali Klitschko -- and it's not clear that they have any real answers either.

Do you go with Western liberalism if that means having Nazis in your midst and another five years or longer of economic slowdown? Or do you hitch your wagon to the Russians, who also have some pretty disgusting tendencies, are historically troublesome for half of all Ukrainians, and look to be headed into the toilet? Not a fun choice.

Nice summary, Fnarf. I didn't even consider the fact that the EU's economic offer is one of austerity, though of course it's obvious when pointed out. It's easy to be sympathetic to Ukrainians who want to get some breathing room from Russia, but easy to forget that the EU is a bad choice economically, at least in the short term.

The EU offers something else. It offers civilization. It offers freedom. The exact opposite of Russia.

I have nothing insightful to say about Ukraine. it's just horrible, the country got absolutely fucked by Stalin.

@4, well, yes, but when? And with whom? The militant assholes in Svoboda are not advocating any kind of civilization or freedom I would want any part of. But Ukrainians who want to side with the EU, while not all or even mostly Svoboda, are nonetheless standing side-by-side with them. It's hard.

I'd be especially leery if I was Jewish, because the traditional solution to problems like the one Ukraine is facing is "fuck it, we'll never settle our differences, so let's turn and massacre the Jews instead".

I'm on the side of the EU, obviously. But it's not clear to me that the choice is obvious for most Ukrainians. Rock and a hard place. It's sucked to be stuck between Russia and Western Europe for what, 500 years? You must choose, or die, or choose AND die.

The thing about a government with death squads is that whatever deal they negotiate with a foreign partner whatever benefits the deal might have for the public will certainly just line the gov's pockets. So the comparisons of EUs and Russia's "deals" are kinda meaningless. This government is totally down with killing its citizens en-mass. Therefore they should oust the president and try him for treason, just like Quisling!

@1 - Listening to the tapped Nuland phone call suggests that the Obama admin is doing something: http://www.democracynow.org/2014/2/20/a_…

@2 Svoboda will never come to power in a Ukraine that has close ties to the EU; the EU would make sure that they are pushed aside.

Svoboda is a very small part of the protesters, the majority of whom are not political at this point (except for demanding Yanukovych's resignation). They are the third largest member of the opposition (receiving 10% in the last elections) and therefore they unfortunately have a small say in what is happening. In a parliamentarian system that is how it works-- the other two parties couldn't kick them out at this point. They need them to defeat Yanukovych, which has to be the first priority.

A Ukraine that is aligned with Russia is much more worrisome for ethnic and other minorities (such as Jews, Roma, gays and lesbians) than a Ukraine aligned with Europe.

Kiev and Odessa both have thriving Jewish communities. My wife (who is descended from Jewish Ukrainians and left in 1913) and I visited several synagogues while we were there last summer. There is zero chance that a pogrom happens anytime soon.