@81: I'm just going to ignore the fact that you linked a paper entirely unrelated to the abstract you posted, and assume you made a minor error. Now, as for the paper (Turner et. al 2016
) whose abstract you posted:
Really? THIS is your best evidence that there's actually an increasing trend in methane emissions due to natural gas extraction? First off, their argument hinges on a trendline drawn through three points, as seen in Figure 1. What are those points? They're the Ch4 emissions (in Tg/yr) at three points in time as estimated by three separate groups using three separate methodologies. They're comparing apples and oranges; to be precise, they're comparing aircraft and satellite measurements using entirely different models. While all of those are useful on their own, it's hilariously irresponsible to draw conclusions from direct comparison. Chronologically, they show increasingly high emissions estimates, but chronologically, they also reflect a shift from atmospheric to satellite measurements; there is no attempt to address this possible confounding factor. (If satellite measurements tend to overestimate emissions relative to atmospheric measurements, that's the trend explained by measurement errors right there.)
You may also note that they mapped out where, in the continental USA, estimated methane emissions have increased the most. (See Figure 2.) If you look at a map of shale gas reservoirs
, you'll notice several dramatic discrepancies. Why would there be negligible increases over the Barnett and Antrim plays, which are major areas of gas production from fracked reservoirs, and yet massive increases over northern Baja California and over Georgia, where there is practically no gas extraction going on? It doesn't exactly fit with your narrative.
Next time, I recommend you actually read the papers you're looking at before you share them. Don't just skim the abstracts to see if they agree with you; READ the body of the paper to see if it's worth citing.