Slog Comments
Santorum Fills Democrats with Joy
1
I'm still hoping for the GOP to split. Split in two, hand the O a fifty state electoral plurality, fifteen Senate seats and 100 in the house, and crumble into tiny pieces as a result.
2
Are you people all insane?
The reason Romney's vote turnout is low is because his supporters know what matters and what doesn't. Last night didn't matter. If you think that's going to carry over into the general election, you're nuts.
In addition, this idea that "the base hates Romney" has to go away, or you're going to get blindsided. Romney is every Republican's first or second choice. Santorum voters will vote happily for Romney in November; so will Gingrich voters, Bachmann voters, Perry voters, and so on down the line. (Ron Paul voters will be too busy digging out their bomb shelters). Romney is not unpopular with any significant segment of the Republican voter pool.
Look at the two remaining non-Romney "candidates". Neither is serious about winning the nomination. They're not on ballots, they've got no money and no organization. Yes, this situation WOULD be an opportunity for Santorum to surge, except that Santorum doesn't even have a real organization in the remaining states. He's not a real candidate. There is NO plausible path to the nomination for him. Look at the remaining states, i.e., almost all of them.
It's fun to watch the Republicans stumble around but it worries me that you're being ridiculously complacent.
The reason Romney's vote turnout is low is because his supporters know what matters and what doesn't. Last night didn't matter. If you think that's going to carry over into the general election, you're nuts.
In addition, this idea that "the base hates Romney" has to go away, or you're going to get blindsided. Romney is every Republican's first or second choice. Santorum voters will vote happily for Romney in November; so will Gingrich voters, Bachmann voters, Perry voters, and so on down the line. (Ron Paul voters will be too busy digging out their bomb shelters). Romney is not unpopular with any significant segment of the Republican voter pool.
Look at the two remaining non-Romney "candidates". Neither is serious about winning the nomination. They're not on ballots, they've got no money and no organization. Yes, this situation WOULD be an opportunity for Santorum to surge, except that Santorum doesn't even have a real organization in the remaining states. He's not a real candidate. There is NO plausible path to the nomination for him. Look at the remaining states, i.e., almost all of them.
It's fun to watch the Republicans stumble around but it worries me that you're being ridiculously complacent.
4
Fnarf is right on.
I was ponding though, if by remote chance that Santorum did win the nomination, that Dan Savage would be offered millions to take spreadingsantorum.com down!
I was ponding though, if by remote chance that Santorum did win the nomination, that Dan Savage would be offered millions to take spreadingsantorum.com down!
5
I would kill to see Santorum get the nod. If Obama's team and the Democrats played it smart, I'm willing to bet they could sweep all 50 states. Sure, there's a lot of conservative Xians out there, but there are A LOT more people who aren't. And Santorum is an evil enough little shit to get a lot of them out to the voting booth.
6
Fnarf @2, Respectfully disagree. Voter enthusiasm drives voter turnout, and in a nation as divided as ours, GOTV is the difference between winning and losing, up and down the ticket.
7
@4 I, too, love to pond. Maybe we can be friends.
But sometimes I start looking at other peoples ponds, around here, and part of me wants to roll around all in their slimy algae covered bottoms of personal projections, and it starts to turn me on and revolt me at the same time.
So, I try not to look at other peoples ponds too much; (i'm rarely dressed appropriately for ponding when the oppertunity arrises; and meetings tend to suck when covered in pond-scum.)
But yours is very nice.
But sometimes I start looking at other peoples ponds, around here, and part of me wants to roll around all in their slimy algae covered bottoms of personal projections, and it starts to turn me on and revolt me at the same time.
So, I try not to look at other peoples ponds too much; (i'm rarely dressed appropriately for ponding when the oppertunity arrises; and meetings tend to suck when covered in pond-scum.)
But yours is very nice.
8
Fnarf -
We're not insane, just giddy at the prospect of a terribly divided and pathetically un-enthusiastic Republican base. It's exciting to see how little love the "front runner" generates among even his most dedicated followers, and it bodes very well for our team. We're all still watching the polls closely and donating money to the Obama campaign. But without being complacent, you gotta agree that this a perfect moment to be kicking the hell out of Mitt while he's down.
We're not insane, just giddy at the prospect of a terribly divided and pathetically un-enthusiastic Republican base. It's exciting to see how little love the "front runner" generates among even his most dedicated followers, and it bodes very well for our team. We're all still watching the polls closely and donating money to the Obama campaign. But without being complacent, you gotta agree that this a perfect moment to be kicking the hell out of Mitt while he's down.
9
I don't know, Fnarf @2. I don't agree that all of the Santorum/Gingrich/Perry voters will happily line up behind Willard in November. They won't switch to Obama, of course, but some of them will be so disillusioned and unhappy with Willard that they'll just stay home. Maybe a significant number of them. Voter turnout has been down in nearly all of the primary states. That seems to indicate a lack of excitement by voters. It is true that republicans generally are not as apathetic and fickle as democrats, but they still seem to have a GOTV problem this year.
10
@2
We are not being complacent.
And you are wrong to say that the low turnout does not mean anything. It means that none of the GOP candidates have excited their base. (polling data also shows this -- Democrats are much more excited to vote in November than are Republicans)
It also means that Romney's organization is very weak. Obama is known for having an amazing grassroots organization. It is how he won the nomination in 2008, especially in the caucus states. (I know this as a Clinton delegate in 2008) It is also how he won the 2008 general election by a wide margin.
Obama is doing that again. He already has campaign offices opening up in battle ground states. For the 2012 Iowa Democratic caucus, the Obama campaign opened 8 offices, more than any of the Republicans.
Low enthusiasm on the part of Republicans could hurt their turnout in November.
It's all about who has the organization to motivate their supporters to go vote.
As of this minute, Obama has it and Romney doesn't.
We are not being complacent.
And you are wrong to say that the low turnout does not mean anything. It means that none of the GOP candidates have excited their base. (polling data also shows this -- Democrats are much more excited to vote in November than are Republicans)
It also means that Romney's organization is very weak. Obama is known for having an amazing grassroots organization. It is how he won the nomination in 2008, especially in the caucus states. (I know this as a Clinton delegate in 2008) It is also how he won the 2008 general election by a wide margin.
Obama is doing that again. He already has campaign offices opening up in battle ground states. For the 2012 Iowa Democratic caucus, the Obama campaign opened 8 offices, more than any of the Republicans.
Low enthusiasm on the part of Republicans could hurt their turnout in November.
It's all about who has the organization to motivate their supporters to go vote.
As of this minute, Obama has it and Romney doesn't.
11
#2
You don't know grassroots Republican politics.
One amazing thing (that I have yet to figure out) is they all hate George Bush. Yes...go and ask. Bush is never mentioned and if his name comes up its all boos...and these are republicans!
You don't know grassroots Republican politics.
One amazing thing (that I have yet to figure out) is they all hate George Bush. Yes...go and ask. Bush is never mentioned and if his name comes up its all boos...and these are republicans!
13
That's really clever of Missouri, Colorado and Minnesota to ironically vote for Santorum. Next level, guys.
14
@9: Voter turnout is low because it’s the primaries, fed up with the infighting, caucuses are a hassle, it’s cold, etc. But rest assured, apathy will turn to passion in November as the hatred of Obama on the right is almost as intense as the hatred of Bush on the left in 2004. This intensity will blow any disillusionment with the nominee by the party and core conservatives – not to 100% of course, but close enough.
15
@ Fnarf, you're being a worrywart. This is 2004 for the Republicans, only worse. Heck, even gurldogg has this one right. If you don't believe, get on some right wing blogs and see what they're saying about R-money.
They don't like him.
That doesn't mean take our eyes off him, or plan our inauguration party plans, but R-money's in bad shape right now, nowhere near ready for primetime. Time to start thinking about something more important.
Congress.
It's time to start giving the max to all the orgs that support Dems running for the House and Senate. Give to your local candidates, give to national committees, give to Dem SuperPACs and 527's, because an Obama re-election won't mean a thing if the GOP keeps the House and/or takes the Senate.
They don't like him.
That doesn't mean take our eyes off him, or plan our inauguration party plans, but R-money's in bad shape right now, nowhere near ready for primetime. Time to start thinking about something more important.
Congress.
It's time to start giving the max to all the orgs that support Dems running for the House and Senate. Give to your local candidates, give to national committees, give to Dem SuperPACs and 527's, because an Obama re-election won't mean a thing if the GOP keeps the House and/or takes the Senate.
16
And how well did that work out for Kerry eight years ago?
as the hatred of Obama on the right is almost as intense as the hatred of Bush on the left in 2004.
And how well did that work out for Kerry eight years ago?
17
@14- voter turnout is down compared to previous primaries. It's the primaries ever primary season.
18
The Rs have been running this race for over a year. They're tired. The will catch a second wind after the primaries are over.
The anyone but Obama crowd is huge. If Romney convinces some religious nut or some freedom nut to run as VP, the Rs could win.
The anyone but Obama crowd is huge. If Romney convinces some religious nut or some freedom nut to run as VP, the Rs could win.
21
Someone has probably already covered this, but a friend just told me that he saw posts on two left-ish Colorado-centric communities reminding people to go vote for Santorum. Missouri and Minnesota do hold open primaries. Colorado does not, but I don't know what the obstacle would be to voting in that state's republican primary if one has no need or interest in voting in the democratic primary (are they even holding those?) So my question is this: how much of this Santorum surge could be due to Democrats gaming the system?
22
Sorry, @21, you can't vote in a Colorado caucus unless you're a registered member of that party. Period.
23
@ 21, in addition to @ 22, you can't just show up and declare your registration, either. The deadline was months ago, so if anyone wanted to fuck with the Colorado GOP caucus, they would have had to do a lot of pre-planning.
It's safe to say that there were very few if any non-'pubs who did this here.
It's safe to say that there were very few if any non-'pubs who did this here.
24
You keep mentioning this Santorum guy, buy you haven't dutifully been linking to his website. Why is that?
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