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Fun with Numbers: Voter Turnout
2
I like how almost all Google searches bring up the old domain name and thus that charming "this domain has been retired" shit instead of, say, bus schedules.
3
I'm pretty sure that there should be more than 137,421 ballots left to come in in washington state. first, it's only 20k more than the number left in washington. second, it's exactly the same as the amount of votes that 1033 is currently losing by. might want to check that. i have no idea about local voting patterns, however.
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@3, There are probably not that many more to come in the mail. If it was mailed on election day before the late evening it probably was delivered yesterday. Some will come today but after that its really only the out of state voters that are going to be left.
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i actually don't care about this at all, but i just want to say, @4, OH SNAP. ok i'll stop being a douchebag now.
also, it seems to me that if king county is only missing 110k ballots, the state missing 850k is wayyy too much. especially since there are no congressional races. i'm betting that the state will have pretty low turnout (comparatively) and king county (and possibly a few other western counties) will be higher than a normal off year. just a thought. that being said, go mcginn!
also, it seems to me that if king county is only missing 110k ballots, the state missing 850k is wayyy too much. especially since there are no congressional races. i'm betting that the state will have pretty low turnout (comparatively) and king county (and possibly a few other western counties) will be higher than a normal off year. just a thought. that being said, go mcginn!
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As to the question of the order in which they're counted, I dropped my ballot in a drop-box early on election day and according to the status site it has not been counted. Assuming it's not been lost, I find some comfort in the fact that McGinn's current total is shy by at least my vote
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@11: As long as you promise to take your heart pills and diabeetus meds. I'll wear a nametag, in case you forget my name.
Do you need some kind of ramp or special walker for this sort of thing?
Do you need some kind of ramp or special walker for this sort of thing?
13
My husband and I checked our ballots - not received yet apparently, or not scanned into their system yet. Mailed them on Tuesday, hope they didn't get lost. This whole voting by mail thing freaks me out a bit. I miss voting in person.
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I think the late ballots should skew uberliberal/McGinn, because lazy stoners like me tend to procrastinate. And be uberliberal.
15
Sent my ballot Monday from university . . . in Montréal. My ballot status shows it hasn't been delivered by USPS yet.
(yeah, there are a few of us way out there).
Funny enough was the parked car I saw on the way to the mailbox which had WA plates. That alone is extremely rare to see in Québec, but the owner of this mid-80s Mercedes was clearly flouting something illegal: the rear plate was series X, while the front plate was a much older series M. I was all, "Let me guess, you tried to avoid paying for the monorail tabs when that was still on the front burner by re-registering your car in Twisp instead of Woodinville."
(yeah, there are a few of us way out there).
Funny enough was the parked car I saw on the way to the mailbox which had WA plates. That alone is extremely rare to see in Québec, but the owner of this mid-80s Mercedes was clearly flouting something illegal: the rear plate was series X, while the front plate was a much older series M. I was all, "Let me guess, you tried to avoid paying for the monorail tabs when that was still on the front burner by re-registering your car in Twisp instead of Woodinville."
16
My ballot and my wife's were mailed from the same mailbox at the same time on the day of the election. Mine's been received, hers hasn't. I'm guessing there's a large pile of ballots that haven't been scanned as received yet.
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Jesse, the Secretary of State's web site has a tab on the election results that shows ballots counted, estimated turnout and estimated remaining ballots left to count.
http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/WEI/VoterTu…
http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/WEI/VoterTu…
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@17 The numbers on that site do figure into my calculations. But the percentage they give is not estimated voter turnout; it's voter turnout so far. Also, "estimated ballots on hand to be processed" does not include ballots not yet received.
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Jesse,
Even though King County Elections has received 164,113 Seattle ballots, they have only processed 109,874 of them. That means that they are still sitting on 54,239 ballots in addition to any that are still trickling in in the mail.
http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/200…
Even though King County Elections has received 164,113 Seattle ballots, they have only processed 109,874 of them. That means that they are still sitting on 54,239 ballots in addition to any that are still trickling in in the mail.
http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/200…
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@12: It probably wouldn't hurt to get some of those dog stairs for the bedside so I can get up there and do my bidniss.
And how did you know I'm a huge Wilford Brimley fan? DIABEETUS!!!
And how did you know I'm a huge Wilford Brimley fan? DIABEETUS!!!
22
Jesse - I applaud your work, but unless I'm reading you wrong, your turnout forecasting could stand some refinement. Simply lumping all elections as presidential/non-presidential skews things badly. Turnout in any given year tracks most closely to the same point previously in election cycles, eg 2009 with 2005, 2008 with 2004, 2007 with 2003. At the very least, seperating on- and off-year elections would give you much closer results. It's standard practice in the campaign industry to judge turnout based on prior turnout in on- and off-years, not "pres vs non-pres". Take the last four points you have data for on a voter (including primaries) in the given cycle and use that to judge if they'll vote again. Usually 3/4+ (that is, someone who has voted in at least three of the last four elections - for this general, that would have been 2009 primary, 2005 p&g, and 2001 general) can be counted on to vote again. So I'm afraid your turnout predictions will be high as you're including even year turnouts in your off-year predictions.
Also, @9,@10,@11 as a sequence made my morning.
Also, @9,@10,@11 as a sequence made my morning.
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A quick note: "ballots received" is not the same as "ballots counted". So if you're trying to get an idea of how many more votes we're waiting to appear on the scoreboard, take a look at the "ballots cast" on the results page.
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The only comparison to this year would be a non-presidential year with no US Senators or Congressmembers on the ballot and at least one contentious ballot issue - and a mayoral race that was close. Where people mailed in their ballots.
In other words, we have no comparison.
In other words, we have no comparison.
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I'd say the biggest issue with trying to predict an outcome based on past turnout is our switch to all-mail ballots. How many people who used to be too lazy to go to a polling place in an off-year election were still too lazy to sit down in their living room & fill out the ballot? Or will all-mail actually improve "turnout"?
We have almost no information regarding past "late voters" unless you want to start with the hypothesis that the people who mailed in their ballots late Tuesday are also the ones who went to the polling place late in prior elections. I don't think it works that way, though.
We have almost no information regarding past "late voters" unless you want to start with the hypothesis that the people who mailed in their ballots late Tuesday are also the ones who went to the polling place late in prior elections. I don't think it works that way, though.
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You could extrapolate out a pretty good guess at expected returns by looking at the number of permanent absentees in 2005 and their rate of return.
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My Ballot Status tracker says 'Ballot mailed', then 'Ballot received', then 'In the bed of Tim Eyman's truck', then 'Buried outside Sequim'. Is that bad?
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