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Juris

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Nov 18 Juris commented on Cat-Scratch Fever.

Clearly the only acceptable answer is Kitten Mittons: http://www.hulu.com/watch/108489/its-alw…

Nov 5 Juris commented on Zia Mohajerjasbi the Genius.

Ugh, I am not into local hip hop at all but I have watched that clip far too many times in the last few minutes because it is indeed beautiful and I'm nothing if not a sucker for civic boosterism in all its wonderful forms.

Nov 5 Juris commented on Fun with Numbers.

You could extrapolate out a pretty good guess at expected returns by looking at the number of permanent absentees in 2005 and their rate of return.

Nov 5 Juris commented on How Many Ballots Are Left to Count?.

@53: Agree entirely! There's just too much goddamn noise between one batch and another. You can't pull any trend at all from the first two day's return. They're going to be different groups of voters and we don't know how they differ. There's a really strong argument for late voters going either way - the conventional wisdom of early voters are older and more conservative (Mallahands!) would give things to BikeSnobSEA, but that could be countered by a number of hypotheses, such as: conventional wisdom doesn't hold for an off-year municipal election because all voters are more motivated to turn out than the norm (norm being even-year, 'big' election voters) and so younger, liberal voters are as likely to return their ballots early or the particular last minute moves of either and both campaigns screw up CW: McGinn's "flip-flop" on the tunnel and the subsequent attack ads of Mallahan wins late voters for Mallahan, Mallahan's last-minute attacks backfire, McGinn's better ground-game turns out more voters...

etc., etc., etc.

The only thing the politically minded thing a person can do right now? Drink away the part of the day that you cannot sleep away. Until 4:30pm.

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Nov 5 Juris commented on Fun with Numbers.

Jesse - I applaud your work, but unless I'm reading you wrong, your turnout forecasting could stand some refinement. Simply lumping all elections as presidential/non-presidential skews things badly. Turnout in any given year tracks most closely to the same point previously in election cycles, eg 2009 with 2005, 2008 with 2004, 2007 with 2003. At the very least, seperating on- and off-year elections would give you much closer results. It's standard practice in the campaign industry to judge turnout based on prior turnout in on- and off-years, not "pres vs non-pres". Take the last four points you have data for on a voter (including primaries) in the given cycle and use that to judge if they'll vote again. Usually 3/4+ (that is, someone who has voted in at least three of the last four elections - for this general, that would have been 2009 primary, 2005 p&g, and 2001 general) can be counted on to vote again. So I'm afraid your turnout predictions will be high as you're including even year turnouts in your off-year predictions.

Also, @9,@10,@11 as a sequence made my morning.

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Oct 27 Juris commented on The Arrivals.

I wonder what Derrickito is eating right now.

Oct 27 Juris commented on McGinn Campaign ~~Questions~~ Attacks, Mocks, and Otherwise Trashes The Washington Poll.

To be fair, Matt Barreto is kind of a cocky asshole.

Oct 26 Juris commented on Scarf Attack.

Um, not to draw attention to a hobby I've developed this year, but those are all standard, boring, SSFC scarves, right? They're not special editions or a new design? They look from that photo like the split-crest one. I'm up to 8 now and still missing a bunch, ergh.