Last week, the list of credible challengers to the mild-mannered Seattle City Council member grew to two and (maybe) three, with the addition of Metropolitan King County Council member Dwight Pelz to an already formidable 2005 lineup against Conlin. Pelz, who had told associates he planned to run against two-term incumbent Richard McIver as recently as a few days ago, jumped instead into the Conlin race on Friday, joining Port Commissioner Paige Miller and recently resigned mayoral Communications Director Casey Corr on the roster of definite and (in Miller's case) likely Conlin challengers.
The early anti-Conlin pileup--unprecedented in a city where council races don't typically heat up until early summer--suggests that Conlin is vulnerable: something political insiders have been saying for months. (Back in November, one observer noted that Conlin was the only one who didn't "see the target on his back." The comment was, in part, a reference to Conlin's opposition to the monorail, which beat back a "recall" challenge in November by a 63.5-36.5 percent margin.) Conlin reportedly fared poorly in a recent poll, but that's hard to confirm, as no one is willing to share the results.
Pelz and Corr's criticism of the incumbent is identical in one major respect: Both challengers call Conlin indecisive and process-driven. Corr says Conlin has been "an obstructionist or a ditherer" on every major development opportunity in the city, adding that he will "absolutely embrace" his former boss Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels' methods and agenda. Pelz claims Conlin is "indecisive and wedded to process…. The solution to every challenge can't be more meetings." (Miller, a pro-business, three-term incumbent who supported a third Sea-Tac runway and who, unlike Conlin and Pelz, has said she supported the monorail, hasn't declared whether she's running or against whom.)
Conlin, a former civic activist who was first elected on an environmental platform in 1997, scoffs at allegations that he's indecisive. "The mayor wants to just announce things and have everybody on the council stand up and salute, and that's not how I do things," Conlin says. Corr, if he wins, will be widely viewed as the mayor's advocate on the council. And he takes credit for helping develop policies Conlin has challenged, including the mayor's development plans for Northgate; his proposal to turn Mercer Street in South Lake Union into a two-way boulevard; his push to give city funding to the South Lake Union trolley; and his effort to cut the city's neighborhood matching fund. "I have a long record of being effective," Conlin says--something he claims his challengers lack.
Pelz, for his part, dismisses that allegation. "I've taken a lot of tough votes. I have a strong record of achievement," he says. Pelz--who reportedly decided against challenging McIver in part because of squeamishness about taking on the council's only black member--is known as a pro-environment lefty who backed controversial laws limiting development in rural areas, pushed legislation requiring that light rail be part of any regional-transportation tax package, and torpedoed Republican efforts to kill a domestic-partner-benefits package at the county.
Corr, in contrast, is viewed as more conservative than most members of the council. Calling himself a "fiscal moderate," Corr has already attacked Conlin for voting to fund "vanity [archival] photographers" at the city instead of increasing funding for cops. (The photographers, which Mayor Nickels wanted to eliminate from the budget, will document the city's capital projects.) As an editorial columnist for the Seattle Times, Corr opposed numerous city tax increases, lambasted Seattle School District for fighting to preserve the use of race in school assignments, and said "There's reason to be optimistic" about Tim Eyman's tax-capping initiative, I-695, because it would "start the conversation" about which services the government should be funding.
Some believe Conlin may be less vulnerable than he appears. In 2001, Conlin won nearly 63 percent in his reelection campaign against former school-board member Michael Preston. And he's no slouch at raising money: In 2001, he took in more than $140,000--which, at the time, was a substantial amount of cash. Conlin also has support in the music community, thanks to his opposition to the draconian (and now obsolete) Teen Dance Ordinance; local music promoter Dave Meinert plans to host a fundraiser for Conlin later this year.
Corr, meanwhile, comes into the race saddled with low name recognition and unshakable ties to the mayor--something that could hurt him if voters decide one Greg Nickels is enough. (Corr himself says he's "not ashamed" of his link to the Nickels machine, adding, "I will help the council work with this mayor.") And in a race against an incumbent who enjoys the backing of Seattle's environmental and neighborhood groups, Corr may be at a fundraising disadvantage.
For his part, Pelz, who's known for his fiery rhetoric, may be a bit confrontational for nice-playing Seattle, which has shown little patience for hotheaded politicians like Judy Nicastro, who was kicked off the council in 2003. Last year, for example, Pelz accused suburbanites of "pretending to honor" the message taught by Martin Luther King Jr. because they opposed plans to locate the Tent City homeless encampment in their neighborhood. And he may have trouble drawing a political contrast between himself and Conlin, who's historically enjoyed the backing of the same environmentalists and smart-growth advocates as Pelz.
And as local consultant Christian Sinderman, a likely Pelz backer, notes, winning against an incumbent won't be as easy this year as it was in 2003, when voters booted three incumbents off the council. "There's a sense that the city is running more smoothly than it was and that there's greater cooperation between the mayor and the council," Sinderman says. If that sense translates into votes, taking on Conlin could be a tougher challenge than his opponents bargained for.
barnett@thestranger.com
