Even early on, it didn't look good for Paul.

Someone's number was up on primary night. Everyone knew the suddenly surging Mark Sidran would emerge as one of the top two vote-getters on Tuesday night and advance to the general election this November. The only question was, who would be eliminated? Would Paul Schell be the first incumbent Seattle mayor in decades to get booted in the frickin' primary, putting the cherry on top of a bizarre and disastrous term? Or would desperate mayoral wannabe Greg Nickels find out the hard way that voters aren't interested in his namby-pamby "Seattle Way"?

At 7:30 p.m., a mere half-hour before the first election returns were expected, a small crowd was gathered for Schell's party at Fremont's Red Door Alehouse. Of the people in the bar, at least half were Fremont locals who came to check out the recently relocated Red Door's new digs. Passion was in short supply among the few Schell supporters milling about. When asked about Schell's chances for a second term, the best that self-proclaimed Schell supporter Curtis Boozer, a 48-year-old architect, could come up with was, "Who knows?" Another supporter, Lester Eastlick, captured Schell's appeal in Greg Nickels-worthy blather: "Schell brings people together... with the right holistic approach to bring everyone to the table."

By 8:30 the room had filled up; there were now close to 100 people digging into goat cheese quesadillas, crab meat, shrimp, and kebabs, including a few city council members (Nick Licata, Peter Steinbrueck, Margaret Pageler) and a handful of reporters. But Schell was nowhere to be found and, mysteriously enough, the election returns weren't rolling in. For an hour and a half after the polls closed, only the absentee ballots were up on King County's website, showing Sidran way ahead, with Schell trailing Nickels by two percentage points.

(These early returns also showed alleged Schell-basher Omari Tahir-Garrett doing much better than cross-dressing, Cobain-was-murdered conspiracy theorist Richard Lee--revealing that Omari is clearly Seattle's most electable lunatic.)

Over at the Sidran party at Kell's in Post Alley, the media had gathered around tonight's sure winner before any election returns were in. The P-I, the Times, KIRO, KING, and Q13 were all there, with reporters and camerapeople enjoying Avenue One's hors d'oeuvres ("inspired by the great bistros and cafes of 1930s Paris"). American flags coated the podium, and a cake decorated with Sidran's face awaited a knife.

Greg Nickels' party at the Carpenters Union Hall (Greg's the labor/pander candidate, dontcha know) was practically deserted at 8:30 p.m.--stunning when you consider that up until three weeks ago, Nickels was way ahead in every major poll. Twenty-six nervous-looking Nickels supporters milled around while one lonely-looking TV crew (Q13) tried not to look disappointed.

When the first election results finally came in, everyone could read the writing on the wall. At 9:30 p.m., with 8% of precincts reporting, Schell was trailing Sidran and Nickels by a significant margin--22% for Schell, 29% for Nickels, and 36% for Sidran. You could hear Schell's short political career come screeching to a rather embarrassing conclusion.

By 11:30 p.m., election returns were looking even worse for Schell--and significantly better for Greg Nickels. With 96% of precincts reporting, it was Schell 22%, Sidran 33%, and Nickels 34%.

So despite the Sound Transit-bashing and gimmicky commercials, Sidran isn't going to crush Nickels, as some feared. We've got a real mayor's race going into November. Too bad for Mayor Schell that he's relegated to the sidelines.