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As I write this, liberals everywhere are panicking. A Pew poll released on October 8 had Mitt Romney up 4 percent over Barack Obama nationally. A national Gallup tracking poll of likely voters had Romney up 2 percent. And everywhere—on Twitter, on progressive blogs, even in what we laughably used to call "the real world" before the internet snaked through our phones and ate our brains—Democrats are ready to call the race in favor of the opposition.
For instance, Andrew Sullivan turned into a giant wailing babyman on his blog, pronouncing that at the end of the first (admittedly disastrous) presidential debate, President Obama "instantly plummeted into near-oblivion," whatever the fuck that means. After writing that post, Sullivan clambered into his crib and cried himself to sleep in his little footie pajamas. Because Andrew Sullivan is a mewling fucking coward—and you are, too, if you're panicking right now.
Stranger Personals
Here's the thing. You can't stake your emotions on a single poll. Hell, you can't stake your emotions on seven polls. A poll is a photograph, a snapshot in time. Like a movie, you have to assemble many of those photographs together, in successive order, to create a narrative. Keep reading Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog at the New York Times, keep reading the Monte Carlo poll simulations that Darryl Holman at Horse's Ass (Horsesass.org) has been running (Holman actually predicted the outcome of the 2008 presidential election with greater accuracy than Silver, missing only that bonus electoral vote that Obama picked up in Nebraska), and you understand that no single poll can predict the outcome of the election.
And let's look at history. Have you ever seen Ronald Reagan's first debate against Walter Mondale in 1984? Reagan was rocking his early onset Alzheimer's for all it was worth, giving answers that were bloated, pause-ridden, and basically impossible to follow. But the thing about great politicians is that they never make the same mistake twice, and Reagan came roaring back to dominate the next two debates. The history of polls, too, is heavy with these kinds of potholes: John Kerry was edging ahead of George W. Bush among likely voters during this week in 2004. In September of 2008, a Gallup tracking poll of likely voters had McCain/Palin up 10 points over Obama/Biden. Surely you remember these moments in the 2008 campaign, where bloggers—including Sullivan—and hardcore liberals wrung their hands and predicted the end of the Obama campaign. We struggled as hard as we could to foretell doom and gloom: Google "Obama Bradley effect" if you need a refresher.
Look: Momentary panic is natural, especially when it's about something as huge and portentous as an election. But you fail as a grown-ass human being if you just wallow in your fear like a child or a dog hiding under a bed from peals of thunder. If you're that fucking scared, go do something. Donate money to the Obama campaign and to other causes you believe in. Even better, donate your time to causes you believe in. That'll take your mind off the panic. Don't give in to this defeatist bullshit. Dust yourself off, take a deep breath, and be a fucking adult. ![]()
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I'm reminded of that GIF from the last election cycle, the one where Mr. Obama is standing at a lectern and someone typed "Chill the fuck out, I got this". Chill the fuck out people and work for your candidate or cause. It's all you can do.
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Wow. If that isn't the pot calling the kettle black I don't know what is.
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I read his blog from time to time because I think he links to interesting stuff, but his analysis is so, so, so bad.
Looking for the good in the evil here, hoping it will be a kick in the pants to make sure everyone rooting for the President actually VOTES for the President.
Can't take anything for granted in this election.
According to those who study the electoral college vote, Romney has risen from an only 12% chance of winning the election to a 28%.
So calm down, people.
If you're gonna worry about anything, worry about -- whether they win or lose in November -- what your lawmakers are on track to screw up Social Security during the lame duck session:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/10…
This is like a basketball game where, with the home court advantage, the visiting team just shot a three to pull barely ahead at the beginning of the third quarter.
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Please, convince me that electing Gore would have been "just the same" as electing Bush. Really. Go ahead. I'd *love* to hear your arguments.
I'll send them to Baghdad, they'd find them hysterical.
In every election since 1948 except for one, if the unemployment rate did anything but go down in the second quarter (April through June) of an election year, the incumbent party lost the White House. See for yourself
In years where the rate was unchanged, the incumbent party lost very narrowly. The one exception, when Eisenhower was re-elected in 1956 in spite of an uptick in inflation, is easily explained by noting how low the rate was that year. Plus, let's face it, Adlai Stevenson was the original Walter Mondale.
Why would the unemployment indicator work? Three reasons. First, because "whether you have a job" is a damned good proxy for how optimistic you might be about the in-crowd. Second, the overall rate is a damned good proxy for how optimistic a lot of people might be. Third, because any moves in unemployment affect the economy with a time lag, changes after June don't show up in general spending or public morale until after the election.
Now look at this year. The second quarter was flat. History says Obama will lose by a whisker, just like Al Gore did in 2000, Gerald Ford did in 1976, Hubert Humphrey did in 1968, Richard Nixon did in 1960.
History's a bitch, Paul. Maybe for your next act, you can give us the history of Kool Aid, because you've been drinking it by the gallon.
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I take it that you don't know anyone in the military do you?
My fiance is in the Army National Guard and we are scared to death that Romney will win. If he does, it's dangerous for my fiance. Not only is Romney a saber rattling moron, he has also once proposed privatizing the VA.
In other words, go fuck yourself you Nader loving piece of shit.
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And troll @19, you obviously have never owned a wig. A rinse and set for them is serious business, not a "swishy antic"
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If you have the means donate to the campaign or work for it in a state that is up for grabs. I am able to do neither so I am going to my best to simply tune the election out.
But, you see, Paul isn't paid to be accurate. Just like the clowns at Fox News, he is paid to tell his customers what they want to hear. And what do The Stranger's readers want to hear? Not that Obama just might lose.
So, if I'm Paul Constant, knowing that my job pretty much depends on drinking the Kool-Aid, only a different flavor than what they drink at Fox, I will drink the Kool-Aid. There's really no downside risk, is there Paul?
2012 is not 1956, 1960, 1964, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, or 2008.
Wow, do I ever feel smart typing in all that data!
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Perfect description about the mood these past few days.
Go back to Simon Says. Geesh.
Like the one claiming that America has a "liberal media"???
Instead, what Constant should do is take a close look at the well-planned, psychometrically-weighted poll releases, and how they are designed to skew, mold and misdirect public opinion and consensus. (For some peculiar reason, some of us actually mistrust polls financed by oil companies and banks, dood!)
Later, Constant cites a blog at the New York Times, the same paper which claims that populist Hugo Chavez of Venezuela to be a "strong man" and an "autocrat" --- total bullcrap! (Yes, very infrequently some hint of truth leaks out of the New York Times, but only very infrequently.)
Later still, Constant mentions the Reagan-Mondale debates --- oh puhlease, dood, Mondale was such an establishment fraudster!
Finally, Constant takes issue with the polls indicating John Kerry ahead --- as if they weren't to be believed (they were non-Pew polls) --- when they were indeed correct!
Had Constant ever withdrawn his head from his skanky butt he would know that three of the members of the Cuyahoga County Elections Board were convicted (and at least several served jail time) for election fraud, while the entire elections board was summarily fired with prejudice!
This specific event threw the election in Ohio in Bush's favor, illegitimately against Kerry, bolstering those polls favoring Kerry over Bush!
Constant's refrain to "donate" reminds me of how Jane Hamsher (firedoglake.com) urged readers to donate to her web and elsewhere for the "public option" during the health insurance legislation --- knowing full well that the public option had long since been dropped.
Ditto those recent recall elections in Wisconsin to attempt to oust Gov. Wanker, with the same percentage of union households voting once again for Gov. Wanker.
The people are beyond dumbed down, otherwise there would be massive national support for Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party, instead of these two Wall Street "choices" we are once again presented with.
"Liberals should have started panicking when Obama appointed Gates and Geithner (and many others like them) to his administration."
And author of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (to overturn Glass-Steagall), Neal Wolin, and Gary Gensler, and Mary Schapiro, and Larry Summers (fired first Black-American woman to receive a PhD in math from Harvard, for pointing out their endowment fund investment strategy -- which they ended up losing $2 billion on -- was flawed), and Diana Farrell (number one jobs offshoring specialist in North America, editor of the book, Offshoring, and author of the McKinsey Global Institute report urging that all American jobs be offshored), and Larry "I love Walmart" Fuhrman, and Peter Orszag, and Hillary Clinton (who in turn appointed Bush inner circle types like Marc Grossman and Victoria Nuland, etc.), and Roger Hormats, and Eric Holder, and Lanny Breuer, and all those Monsanto lobbyists, and all those pharmaceutical lobbyists, etc., etc., ad nauseum.
That was the time to panic, doods!
Yeah, I recall the Mother Superior at the orphanage I grew up in, sarcastically once quoting someone saying the exact same drivel you just repeated.
Only it was a German voter who voted for Adolf Hitler back in the early 20th century, douchey!
"Please, convince me that electing Gore would have been "just the same" as electing Bush."
You appear to forget that it was the Lieberman/Gore ticket v. the Cheney/Bush ticket, in each case the dominant swine was the VP slot (and those crooked douchetards in congress referred to Lieberswine as the "conscience of the senate" --- ROFL to the max!!!!).
You also appear to have forgotten when Gore's been involved with lately, like creating a $5 billion carbon trading fund with his two Goldman Sachs buddies --- yet another extension of that shadow banking scam.
Not that anyone who signs your paycheck is going to care that we're all laughing at you or anything like that.
I read a lot of Paul Krugman's articles.
As I said, I agree with @9. I'm not panic-stricken----yet, if at all, but concerned about the dire possibility of the U.S. degenerating to a Third World Batshit Banana Republic under a Republican stranglehold.
Rethugs and their lackeys truly want he end of the world.
Which reminds me, has anyone heard the latest doomsday date set by the Reverend Harold Camping? I would have chosen April 1st myself.
Good boy.
The Mormon has widened his lead, states are turning redder faster than the leaves on the trees, Obama is breaking speed records trying to escape the black hole of his record, and it being passed on by anyone who wishes to be reelected.
Liberals aren't panicked, that's what Zoloft is for.
Mr. Gasman employed YOU as his lackey to tell us
that it's over. Well, I don't agree, and will vote accordingly
for whom I feel best represents ME as a woman, taxpayer,
U.S. born citizen, and VOTER.
And Moron Republican Frat Boy doesn't cut it.
Is the REAL reason why you, Gasman, and other cavemen so rabidly support Romney is because none of you GET IT, and THAT'S why you're NOT GETTING ANY?









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