The risk of a George W. (wolves?) reelection is one notch higher than when we first started tracking the threat back on April 29.

Here's why: In toss-up states like Ohio, Republicans have hired 3,600 people to upend Kerry's potential trump card--newly registered voters. The "monitors" (Republican-speak for racist goons) are getting $100 to stand inside polling places in heavily Democratic "urban neighborhoods" to challenge voters' qualifications.

As for Kerry's other potential trump card: the latest embarrassing news from Iraq, where 380 tons of powerful explosives disappeared from a U.S.-controlled military facility--don't bet the election on it. Given that horrific Abu Ghraib torture photos, carnage in Fallujah and subsequent insurgency, Nick Berg's beheading, and zero WMD or al Qaeda connection failed to put Kerry over the top, it's hard to imagine this latest catastrophe will do the trick--even with the deadlocked election awaiting a nudge. --JF