Voters Take Prejudice to the Polls
A UW Researcher Examines Why a White Candidate Swept the Vote in Eastern Washington
As the results in the race for Washington State Supreme Court Justice Position 8 rolled in after the August 7 primary election, it seemed clear to seasoned political observers that something was very wrong. Kitsap County attorney Bruce Danielson, who was described by the head of his local bar association as having "zero qualifications to be on the bench," and who had raised exactly $0 for his largely nonexistent campaign, was pulling in nearly 440,000 votes and winning 29 counties, including every single county in Eastern Washington.
His opponent: Incumbent state supreme court justice Steve Gonzalez, who was flush with endorsements, had raised $340,000, and ended up with only 10 counties on his side, all of them in Western Washington.
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Due to the large populations of those Western Washington counties, Gonzalez won the election, netting 60 percent of the statewide vote to Danielson's 40. And, following the unique rules for two-person judicial primaries, that was that—Gonzalez will keep his seat for the next six years. Clearly, however, something odd had happened in this race.
When The Stranger and other news outlets suggested that the only way to really explain the results was prejudicial voting by Eastern Washingtonians who apparently preferred the Anglo surname Danielson over the Latino surname Gonzalez—candidate qualifications be damned—many cried foul.
"Not so fast," wrote one commenter on Slog, The Stranger's blog, on August 8. "Perhaps the part of the state that's basically Republican used their right to vote to vote for someone who apparently shared their values." (Never mind that there was no statewide voters' pamphlet this year due to budget constraints, so it would have been hard for most Eastern Washington voters to know what Danielson's values actually were.)
Similarly, in an August 17 letter to the Seattle Times, Michael G. Hanks of Federal Way argued with a Seattle Times editorial that said the Danielson-Gonzalez results showed "racially polarized voting" and proved the need for election reform. "The Times suggests supporting evidence for its assertion will be provided in the coming weeks by University of Washington researchers," Hanks wrote. "Can't The Times wait for those fact-based conclusions before it disparages every nonminority voter who decided to support Bruce Danielson?"
Well, now those fact-based conclusions are in.
"The answer in the data is that there is a lot of racially polarized voting going on in Eastern Washington," says Matt A. Barreto, a pollster at the University of Washington who led an effort to crunch precinct-level results in the Danielson-Gonzalez race and gave The Stranger an exclusive first look at his findings. "It's especially prominent in low-information elections like this one—we have to remember the backdrop was that there was no voters' guide."
Barreto's findings show, for example, that in Eastern Washington's Yakima County, Danielson drew a full 75 percent of the non-Latino vote (helping Danielson receive 64 percent of the vote overall in that county to Gonzalez's 36 percent). In fact, non-Latino voters flocked so decisively to Danielson in Yakima County that he outperformed fellow conservative Rob McKenna there by 14 points. "Danielson should not have outperformed anyone," Barreto says, "because he had no name recognition and no money."
Same story in neighboring Grant County: Danielson won the county 67 percent to 33 percent, outperformed McKenna by 7 points, and pulled in 70 percent of the non-Latino vote.
Contrast those results with the results in Western Washington's Snohomish County, where Gonzalez won. In Snohomish, Danielson polled roughly even with McKenna, which makes sense, and is a sign that voters there were making choices based on ideology rather than on a candidate's last name. This allowed the non-Latino vote in Snohomish to be more evenly distributed: 44 percent of non-Latino voters there went for Danielson, while 56 percent went for Gonzalez.
Barreto has more findings showing how racially polarized voting helped Danielson in Eastern Washington, and he's posted them at http://goo.gl/HdNHn. But he points out that one doesn't necessarily have to go all the way down to precinct-level data and engage in regression analyses, as he and his colleagues at the UW did, to see something awry.
In the race for Supreme Court Justice Position 2, he points out, incumbent justice Susan Owens, who raised less money than Gonzalez and seems roughly similar to him in ideology, won every single county in the state. If ideological choices were driving Gonzalez's results in Eastern Washington, then her election results should have mirrored his.
Barreto, who has testified as an expert in federal voting-rights cases, says his research "points to a definite problem in the state. I think when you look at some localities in Central and Eastern Washington, that there are some specific localities that have a history of failing to elect Latinos or other minorities to their school boards—if that is happening at the same time that racially polarized voting is happening, then the federal Voting Rights Act says you could have a lawsuit on your hands."
In fact, Yakima County is currently facing a federal Voting Rights Act lawsuit brought by the ACLU. Although Latinos constitute 41 percent of the population there, Yakima has never elected a Latino to the city council—"not even once," says Seattle attorney David A. Perez, who is following the case. The alleged problem: The same racially polarized voting that contributed to the Danielson-Gonzalez result, combined with a lack of district elections in Yakima County, ends up diluting Latino votes and preventing Latino candidates from receiving a majority in local elections.
Perez says a solution for Yakima County—and the nine other Central Washington counties that have zero Latino port commissioners, county officers, county judges, or county commissioners—is the proposed Washington Voting Rights Act, which he and others have been pushing, unsuccessfully so far, in the state legislature. He says it would allow voters to challenge unfair election procedures when necessary.
But a lot of lawmakers simply don't believe racially polarized voting is happening in Eastern Washington, Perez says. Now he hopes they'll believe it. "We'd still rather that not have happened," he says of the blatantly prejudiced voting that led to the Gonzalez-Danielson result. "But the consolation prize is it's out in the open now." ![]()
This article has been updated since its original publication.
Have you ever BEEN there?
Huge surprise.
I'll alert the media.....
Unfortunately, even if these Judicial contests were decided with the same (General Election) electorate, the closest thing we'd have to a comparison case is complicated by money, religion, etc.
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Did you ask what our so-called not-racist Secretary of State Sam Reed whether he thinks there is widespread voter racism in our state? And whether he knew that when he decided not to mail out statewide voter pamphlets, because he was counting on the racist vote making decision on nothing but the whiteness of someone's name? Too bad it didn't work out the way these racist Republicans wanted to. Maybe they shoulda thought about voter suppression to prevent these brown voters from voting altogether. Oh wait. They DID think of that!!! We are so fucking screwed.
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So no surprise here that white voters voted for the white name, not the Hispanic name. Is Eastern WA racist- not necessarily. But is it Rethug- sad to say- yes. The proper question to ask is not "is E WA racist?", but "is E WA Rethug?"
Nobody should be silly enough to think that ANY Rethug county in the nation is going to vote Hispanic. Republicans are racists- hello! As a Yellow Dog Democrat, yes-it's hard to live here.
Bad article based on bad research, Eli. Ask the proper questions if you want the correct answers.
@6- You're right- about 1/3 of E WA is Dem/progressive, but don't live here if you can't stand the rednecks. You're surrounded, and Wenatchee, thanks to Seattle transplants, is less Rethug than most counties over here. Try living in Grant County!
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Have you ever BEEN there?
Huge surprise.
I'll alert the media.....
98% of African Americans vote for a candidate whose skin looks (sorta) like there's.
They must be some deeply deeply racist assholes. Right?
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Unfortunately, that familiarity has not translated into harmony as it historically has done in this melting pot of a country. No, quite the opposite.
Why? Are the vast majority of white people in Eastern Washington simply racist. No more explanation needed? Is it a backlash against Latino gang activity that has been a blight on the livability of so many communities, Yakima especially?
Is it a language barrier that persists despite multiple generations of Latino families? If you watch the Latino assimilation from the youngest up you often see color- and race-blind youngsters befriending each other at the elementary school level.
Unfortunately, for whatever reasons, the Latino families often do not accommodate or even tolerate friendships outside their culture and those early friendships fade away. The product of this can be seen at the middle school and especially high school levels where the cultural divide begins taking on a hostile feel.
Of course this is not true in all cases. Nothing is ever that simple.
But whatever the cause of the blind bigotry in the Gonzalez election, the Latino assimilation into our society, or lack thereof, should be studied in the communities of Eastern Washington.
But it also could be an interesting case study to see why voters in King County so heavily and automatically cast their ballots for anyone with a "D" after their name. But that's for another day.
What I'm saying is, it's ridiculous to say race isn't a factor in this, but it's clearly not the only factor. Let's also take the likelihood that a fairly large number of voters might look at the internet, a newspaper etc. The easiest bit of info to find out about Gonzalez is that he was appointed by Gov. Gregoire. So here we have the two most readily available pieces of info about this candidate being: Latino=Democrat, and appointed by a Democrat. 1+1=Democrat. He's not going to get votes in EWA.
In any event, the bottom line?: electing judges is the dumbest thing ever. The Gov. should appoint the entire supreme court and county execs or commissioners should appoint county-level judges.
first those crying foul clearly said when Stranger said all of the danielson vote was racist, that's not fair -- only SOME of it is.
the new data confirms this. Some of the danielson performance matches standard GOP performance. in other districts and precincts, the danielson performance exceeds gop performance, in the story this is shown by the places where inslee voters voted for danielson. to that extent, yes e washignton is racist, as "those crying foul" clearly said. so in the end they were right and Strange was wrong in saying the mere fact he got 43% shows 43% are racist. What one crying foul said was clearly only about half those 43% are racist. So yes EW racist, yes STranger exagerated, and yes the new data proves this. So in the end the lumping together of nonracist with racist was the kind of overgeneralization we shouldn't make. being factually wrong.
So....
98% of African Americans vote for a candidate whose skin looks (sorta) like there's.
They must be some deeply deeply racist assholes. Right?
Oooh, that's gotta hurt when Western WA brains process it.
The biggest disconnect I see is between the sheeple of Urbanized voting and the independence of Rural voting.
Urban voters NEED goberment programs because they have fouled their nest so throughly, where as the Rural voters are pretty much doing things on their own.
Seattle would weep if he saw his land now.
Given Republican policies have been such that better than 90% of the black vote already goes to the Democrat, your argument only applies to a small fraction of a fraction of a small fraction of the overall population. If we simply conceded the point, it would still not be a true equivalence in numbers or more importantly, power.
Racism is bad on its face, but it isn't truly corrosive and dangerous until it is coupled with power:
The ability to project these beliefs into the future through indoctrination.
The ability to inflict the consequences of these beliefs on others.
The ability to enforce a narrative and shape reality.
One solution: WA State Voting Rights Act. We almost got it through last session, we'll be pushing for it this session. Help out, get involved. Put the heat on jurisdictions that are just fine with the status quo with the threat of cases being brought by voters who can't elect people who will fight for them.
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And thank GOD for this! It's like we here on this side of the mountains have to drag the rest of the state, kicking and screaming, into the 21st century... I know that not everyone in Eastern WA is an ignorant racist, I actually know this for a fact... But it would appear that MOST of the folks 'over there' are, in fact, ignorant racists.
Of course, this study released by the UW will make no difference whatsoever to these folks because it's SCIENCE and they don't believe in that.
I'll be interested to see what happens with the WA Voting Rights Act.
Great reporting, Eli, thank you.
Now I moved to E Washington - believe it or not, there are a lot of progressive democrats over here. Racism here is no more apparent here than it was in Seattle (where everyone says they're not racist, but only because there aren't enough minorities to be racist against...) Definitely not a "MOST" of the folks are ignorant racists.
You can keep the traffic, the clouds, rampant taxation, passive aggressive dbags, and constant gridlock. I'll take the sun, the snow, proximity to trout country, and great schools / neighbors. If there is "rampant" racism over here, I've not seen it in my dealings with some of the friendliest down to earth people in Washington state.
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Sure, there are racists everywhere, and racist attitudes even among people who think of themselves as progressive. But in Western Washington, in elections, that prejudice is masked or overwhelmed by other factors, such as people voting for party as a proxy for how racist they are. But Eastern Washington has an additional bit of measurable bigotry that is not found in Western Washington, and is not about party differences (because it doesn't happen in races with only white candidates). That's reality. Deal with it.
I don't want the Good Name of the State of Washington to be associated with the largely spiteful eastern half (more like 2/3rds).
Besides, they are the beneficiaries of the state's tax flow. Cutting them off would actually boost our per-capita tax revenue by keeping our taxes here -- maybe even reduce them -- or use them to do the things they are supposed to do! Like, say, smaller class sizes, instead of adding lanes to 50-mile highways in the middle of nowhere.
Western Washington and Eastern Washington are diametrically opposite each other. We are effectively two states in terms of not only culture, but also biosphere. And more than once we have actually been effectively detached from them via land. It's stark just how different the two are. We should let that nature advise our borders.
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I've even had to accept the awkwardness of friendhips with some conservative country bumpkins who speak of God like s(he)'s Santa and are always a risky invite to our very gay-friendly and racially-mixed parties. Why?! Because despite the difference in political views and the ignorant racism and the possibilty that I am sometimes used as an example of a crazy lesbian they know, they STILL somehow, for some wholly mysterious reason, are loving, caring, shockingly thoughtful people. I've stopped focusing on much of what they are saying and begun watching how they treat their friends and family. I don't just shrug off hearing them call Obama the N-word but have learned that there is a time and place to challenge their views. And I,in turn, know who I'm calling if someone breaks into my house in the middle of the night.
Yet, this is all too over-simplified. The reality is that living in a liberal oasis is nice and fun and all, but it's not the next level of integrating back into the frustrating society that includes conservative folk (some of whom are a lot better spoken than given credit for). That's where people create change on the smallest level. Maybe that's the most meaningful level? Where homophobic, racist, sexist humans the "enemy" and find out they are their friends.
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Just thought I'd mention something that complicates the convenience of calling Washington's East/West politics so blithely.
Geographically, Washington isn’t like Oregon, where East/West is obvious. Generally speaking, WA has four distinct regions: 1. Olympic peninsula; 2. Puget Sound corridor ;3. Central (Cascades to Columbia); 4. Eastern (east of the Columbia).
I happen to live in Central, and now we’re part of Bellevue’s Cong. district! Admittedly, we can be pretty primitive over here, but so are many in, say, eastern Snohomish, Skagit & Whatcom Counties, who make far eastern WA hardasses seem like midsummer night fairies.
I deem Seattle’s own Eastsiders (e.g. Kemper Freeman & Co. et al) more troublesome than a thousand dimbulbs from Adams County.
Pie charts and bar graphs are Beck-friendly, but it ain’t necessarily as convenient as that.
We can at least breathe easier with Gonzalez on the bench, and many of us in Central didn’t take the Anglo bait.
One more thing: remember Alberto Gonzales? Bad association. It might’ve confused ‘em in Moses Lake.
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You should care about the impact on the Presidential election, as right now the Democrats are virtually assured of about a dozen electoral votes, whereas with a split several of those votes would swing red under a new Eastern Washington.
That you lumped the greater Spokane metro area unceremoniously and without comment into Eastern Washington makes it awfully hard to accept your analysis.
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35-49. The last bifurcation of a US state was Virginia/W. Virginia in 1863. The expense is prohibitive - at least that's what will be whimpered first. Even California doesn't discuss it any longer.
I for one would be delighted if mass bifurcation occurred in this once semi-coherent nation. But history has always shown that empires get busted up. Stay tuned...
In Grant County , Gonzalez received 29.5% of non Latino votes, while Jay Inslee received 28.7%. Yet, the analysis compares Danielson's votes (70.4%) to McKenna (58.3%) instead of Gonzalez to Inslee. Why?
Also, the total of the percentages for the Supreme Court race adds up to 99.9%, while the percentages in the analysis in the governor or Senator race adds up to about 86% . Why is that?. I don't know the answer, but could the other approximately 14% of voters not accounted for in the Senate or Governors race in the UW professor's analysis have been another conservative alternative such as a 3rd party candidate who received votes that otherwise would have been cast for Baumgartner or McKenna?
Please see the link in the article for the analysis. It would be nice to get an answer from the UW professor, Matt Barreto.
I'm not trying to be racially insensitive or argue with his conclusion, but it would be enlightening to receive an answer to these questions.
Also, don't forget tha in 1990 an unknown lawyer with little in the way of campaigning but a friendly last name of Johnson defeated what most thought was a far more qualified incumbent with the unfortunate last name of Callow. Both were white, but the voters just went off a name. Danielson is within the same family tree and structure of last names as Johnson.
In Grant County , Gonzalez received 29.5% of non Latino votes, while Jay Inslee received 28.7%. Yet, the analysis compares Danielson's votes (70.4%) to McKenna (58.3%) instead of Gonzalez to Inslee. Why?
Also, the total of the percentages for the Supreme Court race adds up to 99.9%, while the percentages in the analysis in the governor or Senator race adds up to about 86% . Why is that?. I don't know the answer, but could the other approximately 14% of voters not accounted for in the Senate or Governors race in the UW professor's analysis have been another conservative alternative such as a 3rd party candidate who received votes that otherwise would have been cast for Baumgartner or McKenna?
Please see the link in the article for the analysis. It would be nice to get an answer from the UW professor, Matt Barreto.
I'm not trying to be racially insensitive or argue with his conclusion, but it would be enlightening to receive an answer to these questions.
Also, don't forget tha in 1990 an unknown lawyer with little in the way of campaigning but a friendly last name of Johnson defeated what most thought was a far more qualified incumbent with the unfortunate last name of Callow. Both were white, but the voters just went off a name. Danielson is within the same family tree and structure of last names as Johnson.
E-V-E-R-Y ADULT CAUCASIAN WHICH HAS BREATH NEEDS TO VOTE-OUT THE COLORED IMPOSTER AND RETURN A CAUCASIAN MALE TO Pennsylvania Avenue. EVEN THOUGH, THAT "House" IS NO LONGER "White," A CAUCASIAN MALE'S RETURN TO THAT RESIDENCE WILL PRODUCE A PSEUDO-BLEACHING EFFECT.
WAKE UP, CAUCASIANS! RETURN TO YOUR HERITAGE. YOU HAVE SUCCESSFULLY PROVED YOU SUPPORT EQUAL OPPORTUNITY.
CHRISTOPHER ALLEN HORTON
IT IS QUITE REVEALING YOU MENTIONED THE CLASS PRESIDENT AT YOUR MAJORITY CAUCASIAN HIGH SCHOOL IS NEGRO.
WHEN NEGRO STUDENTS ACQUIRE KNOWLEDGE TRANSMITTED BY CAUCASIAN SCHOLARS, A "WEALTH" OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS IN THEIR LIVES.
ON THE OTHER HAND, INNER-CITY SCHOOLS ONLY PREPARE NEGROES FOR UNWANTED PREGNANCIES AND THE JAILHOUSE.
CHRISTOPHER ALLEN HORTON
Many of the same people and commenters that jump to the conclusion that a vote is cast based upon race appear to be doing the same thing in projecting voting for a specific party or candidate this year. In my experience there is no worse racist organization than the NAACP or the National Democratic Party when they call out Republican Blacks as Toms, Oreo's, or worse. Remember; MLK Jr was a Republican!
YOU ARE WRONG. Martin Luther King, Jr., WAS NOT REPUBLICAN. HOWEVER, I UNDERSTAND YOUR REASONING.
THE PERIOD FROM CIRCA 1950 TO 1965, WAS AN "EVOLVING" PERIOD FOR CAUCASIANS WHO DISAGREED WITH THE HORRORS OF Ku Klux Klan. ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HAVE VOTED "OLD-SCHOOL DEMOCRAT" OUT OF TRADITION, THEY HAD PROBLEMS WITH THOSE CAUCASIANS WHO LYNCHED NEGROES.
IN REFERENCE TO Reverend King, IN THE NEGRO MIND, CIVIL-RIGHTS HAD NO PARTY ALLEGIANCE. AFTER THE PASSING OF LEGISLATION IN 1965, Rev. King PUBLICALLY ALIGNED HIMSELF WITH "TODAY'S-STYLE" DEMOCRATS.
CHRISTOPHER ALLEN HORTON
YOU ARE FUCKED-UP "IN THE HEAD" - ON ONE HAND, YOU SAY Rev. King WAS REPUBLICAN; ON THE OTHER HAND, YOU SPEAK OF THE RACIALLY-BIASED VIEWS OF, Jesse Jackson, Sr. AND Al Sharpton.
"MIT," WHOSE SIDE ARE YOU ON?
CHRISTOPHER ALLEN HORTON
In “A Covenant With Life: Reclaiming MLK’s Legacy”, Dr. Alveda C. King, niece of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., states:
“My grandfather, Dr. Martin Luther King, Sr., or ‘Daddy King’, was a Republican and father of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. who was a Republican.”
See the video of Dr. Alveda C. King affirming her uncle was a Republican at: www.NBRA.info
http://images.nbra.info/docs/library/Nat…
Here, I will help you, since you probably have a difficult time thinking for your self;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_idio…
If you really want the truth all you really have to do is look for the real facts and interpret them honestly. Good luck.
I STAND BY MY COMMENTS. BUT, YOU CARE ABOUT THIS MORE THAN I; I AM REPUBLICAN AND DO NOT CARE ABOUT "black" ISSUES. YOU WIN BY DEFAULT.
CHRISTOPHER ALLEN HORTON
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You guys are both seriously a disturbed and deranged dudes. You are entitled to your views, but just do us a favor and take some meds. OK?
I love both parts of the state because it allows me to enjoy the diversity of the land. What other state has rain forest to desert and everything in between? Find your way across the Cascades and enjoy the other side of the state, no matter which side you live on. And remember, you are blessed to live in Washington.
Surprise!
Print a pamphlet next time. The voters in these counties were ignorant because the were not offered the information they needed. If there is a charge of voter fraud it needs to be leveled AT THE STATE for depriving people in poor counties of the opportunity to fully participate in this process.
The Seattle Metro area drains far more tax dollars than all of eastern Washington. Keep your taxes. Those of us on the east side of the state will be happy to use our own billions in ag and industry tax dollars for our far smaller population. We'll even stop shipping our multi-billion dollar wheat and apple crops from the Port of Seattle. We can do it just as easily from any of our own ports on the Columbia.
a Hispanic name ? I was in the Navy with a guy
named Gomez. He had blonde hair and blue eyes..
read. Wonder why the likes of a scumbag like patty murray win elections ?? patty panders
to illegals to get thier vote and morons like
sam reed wonder why ? Giving illegal driver licenses and register them to vote and sending
illegal ballots. It is illegal for a non citizens to vote.
Below is another ignorant statement by seattles
dumbest poster....yes andrew bush. what a stupid
idiot. Enjoy ;)
Andrew Bush · Top Commenter
Go Michelle Obama!!!
I think she is one of the prettiest first ladies we have ever had.
Obama/Biden 2012
Obama gets about as much of the black vote as the average Democratic candidate. We can speculate that he gets some benefit from these voters from being black, but his vote total is predictable by the D after his name.
Danielson, conversely, did much better than conservatives in the precincts cited. His success also can not be predicted by his campaigning (he didn't), his qualifications (virtually nonexistent), etc. The explanation that best fits the facts is that the difference is Anglo vs. Hispanic name preference.
It's worth remembering that not all racism is the burn a cross, hurl an epithet type.
@81 Of course, the Greater Seattle area uses more tax dollars than Eastern Washington, we have more people and we chip in more money. You're the asshole who only chips in a buck or two, but then gets pissy when the guy who paid for most of the pizza doesn't give you half. Seriously. We've also noticed you buy cheap beer and then drink our good stuff. Shut your piehole.









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