Trump has a path to victory, says Nate Silver.
Tuesday was another pretty good day of polling for Donald Trump. It’s also not an easy day to characterize given the large number of polls published. You could cherry-pick and point to the poll that has Trump up 7 percentage points in North Carolina, for example, or the ABC News/Washington Post national tracking poll that has Trump up 1 point overall. And you could counter, on the Hillary Clinton side, with a poll showing her up by 11 points in Pennsylvania, or a national poll that gives her a 9-point lead. Our model takes all this data in stride, along with all the other polls that nobody pays much attention to. And it thinks the results are most consistent with a 3- or 4-percentage point national lead for Clinton, down from a lead of about 7 points in mid-October. Trump remains an underdog, but no longer really a longshot: His Electoral College chances are 29 percent in our polls-only model—his highest probability since Oct. 2—and 30 percent in polls-plus.
Earlier this week Silver said the odds of the Cubs winning the World Series were the same as Donald Trump winning the election. The Cubs were down 3-1 when Silver made that prediction. The Cubs won the next two games and could wind up winning the World Series tonight. And Trump's numbers are up in the days since Silver made that prediction. So, yeah, um, fuck. I'm not sure what to do with this information. If the Cubs beat the odds and win the World Series tonight... is that a bad omen? A sign that Trump will beat the odds and win the election? Are we supposed to root against the Cubs now?