This guy needs to multiply by three.
This guy needs to multiply by three. David Calvert / Getty

Nevada's Dean Heller, one of two vulnerable Republican Senators up for reelection in 2018, has announced his opposition "in this form" to Trumpcare. Holding up a copy of the bill, he backed up his tentative position by citing his reluctance to support a bill that "takes away insurance from tens of millions of Americans and hundreds of thousands of Nevadans."

Principled stance? Hardly. He's like every other Republican in his disdain for covering more children, more elderly, and more working poor.

He's just scared he'll lose his seat in '18, a fate that former Trump campaign lackeys are hastening to secure. Per Politico, a pro-Trump group called America First Policies plans to slam Senator Heller with a series of attack ads for his offense to their king as early as Monday. This bit of reportage from that piece sent a shiver up my spine.

"You do not want to mess with Donald Trump’s base in a primary, particularly in a place like Nevada,” said one America First official. “This kind of money in Nevada is real. … This is a beginning.”

To explain this strategy, I turn to a representative from Saruman's army:

But don't get too excited: Heller's opposition is meaningless unless he is joined by two other Republicans. The four hyper-conservatives who came out against the bill yesterday are decoys. But there are three Republican Senators who seem at least a little hesitant: Alaska's Linda Murkowski, West Virginia's Shelley Moore Capito, and Maine's Susan Collins. Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona is up for reelection in 2018, too, but right now he seems more worried about Johnny Depp than he does about his position on a bill that regulates 1/6 of the U.S. economy.

If only Flake and Heller come out against the bill before the vote, which may happen next Thursday, the four ultra-conservatives will probably sign on and the bill will pass with a tie-breaker from Pence. But if Murkowski or Collins or Capito also comes out against the bill in the coming days, that would be...interesting. It would indicate that Mitch McConnell's grip on the so-called "moderates" is looser than it appears, and/or that he just really doesn't care if this bill lives or dies, as some have speculated.

Anyhow, if you've got friends in those states, direct them to TrumpCareTen.org, where they will find plenty of tools to put what few screws they have to their Senators.