Things look bad for mayoral contender Mike McGinn. Right? SurveyUSA reported last night that McGinn holds 36 percent support to Joe Mallahan's 43 percent—and McGinn trails among all demographics except liberals, Asian Americans, and people making under $50,000 a year.

But I'm becoming skeptical of the recent local polls from SurveyUSA*. In the two most closely watched races this year, Seattle Mayor and King County Executive, SurveyUSA underestimated support for the liberal candidates. For instance, the final poll before the primary election showed county executive candidate Dow Constantine with only 13 percent support—18 points behind rival Susan Hutchison. But results from the primary election, six days after the poll was released, show Constantine with 27 percent of the vote—just six points behind Hutchison.

Likewise, the poll for mayor just before the primary showed McGinn with 16 percent of the vote, five points behind Nickels. But the primary results showed him with 27 percent of the vote, in first place.

Another Mallahan vs. McGinn poll showed them evenly tied, with support for Mallahan slipping on all fronts, but now he's gaining. Is SurveyUSA's methodology off? I don't know, of course. But the company uses robo-calls, which are arguably flawed because they question the first person to answer the phone in a household. They also won't call cell phones, which is the only phone a lot of younger, progressive voters have. In addition, the universe of "likely voters" could be skewed this year from the older voters who typical dominate off-year elections. Lots of young voters registered to vote in 2008—for Obamania—and now the campaign for I-1033 and especially R-71 are targtting those younger voters to turn out. Which would help McGinn.

But, obviously, some of the discrepancy between polls and results exists because undecided voters made up their minds (who doesn't know who they're voting for six days before an election?). But if that's what's making the difference, then there's even more hope for McGinn, as 21 percent of voters are still undecided in that race, says the recent poll. And, if Slog comments are any indication—the ultimate gauge of voter attitudes everywhere—McGinn is swaying lots of undecided and Mallahan votes by announcing (after this poll was conducted) that he'd tolerate the tunnel.

* Yeah, yeah, I rejoice when polls look good for guys we like and dismiss them when they support vote-evading, corporate-lexicon-spouting slouches. Acknowledged.