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News & ArtsTuesday, October 27, 2009
Politics
McGinn Campaign Questions Attacks, Mocks, and Otherwise Trashes The Washington Poll
Posted by Eli Sanders on Tue, Oct 27, 2009 at 11:14 AM
McGinn volunteer media contact Aaron Pickus, seeing that one of the people behind the new Washington Poll told me the McGinn people are probably "just upset" about being down in the polls, responds:
It sounds like he's a little bit embarrassed by how off his polls always are. We're feeling great. I think he's just feeling upset that his polls don't seem to reflect reality.
Pickus was trying to remind me that the Washington Poll was way off in predicting the outcome of the primary—which McGinn won. He also asked why, "if they're experts in polling and have PhD's," the people behind the Washington Poll misspelled Susan Hutchison's last name (as Hutchinson) and Mayor Greg Nickels' first name (as Nichols) in their cross-tabs.
OK. But is the McGinn campaign willing to release its vaunted internal polling so that we can lay it side by side with the new Washington Poll's findings? Nope.
"We like to have a surprise ending," Pickus told me.
But then, without too much prodding, he revealed what he thinks the surprise will be.
"We're going to win."
UPDATE:
Matt Barreto, the UW pollster who earlier characterized the McGinn campaign's complaints as coming from people who are "just upset" about their poll standings, called the latest criticism from Aaron Pickus "hilarious."
The typos in his cross-tabs, Barreto said, are simply the result of "grad students up late working on this so we could get it ready for early morning release."
1
Good to see ol' "gosh'n'gee, let's play fair" McGinn is finally fighting back.
A week before the election. Oops.
6
Did Barreto bother to talk about their projections for the final results of the primary?
7
You got 512 age and gender matched voters (including people who voted first for Obama and then in the Primary this year)?
In Seattle?
If not, you have at best a non-diverse sample pop for a skewed t-sample in Seattle and can't answer ANY question.
Even King County Exec would need 512 in King County.
ROFLMAO.
8
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(sad sad sad having to teach them how to conduct a basic poll)
10
11
You can't actually answer any question - you lack statistical power. You'd need a bump up to at least 256 to even have a wonky poll, and I'm seeing no age/sex breakdown or pop graphs by LD. No economic stats (income) to validate you're not oversampling rich jerks with views.
Come back when you learn stats.
As in every election, *our* polls (whichever campaign is speaking) show us winning and those other polls were done by idiots.
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