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Monday, November 2, 2009

Politics New SurveyUSA Poll: McGinn In Statistical Dead Heat With Mallahan

Posted by Eli Sanders on Mon, Nov 2, 2009 at 12:55 PM

According to a source at King 5 television who's seen a new election-eve SurveyUSA poll the station paid for, Mike McGinn is now running just two points behind Joe Mallahan in the Seattle mayor's race.

The poll, which has a roughly four-point margin of error, will be released at 5 p.m. today.

“It’s a toss-up now," the King 5 source said. "It’s a statistical dead heat."

Remember: just before the Aug. 18 primary, SurveyUSA significantly underestimated McGinn's strength, placing him last among the top three candidates (he ended up coming in first). Remember, too, that SurveyUSA only reaches voters with land-lines, and that some of McGinn's strongest support is among younger voters—who frequently only have cell phones.

My source at King 5 says the number of undecideds in the mayor's race remains "pretty high," so keep that in mind too. But if this poll is correct—or, just as importantly, if it's incorrect in the same way it was on Aug. 18—then McGinn could win this thing.

The poll will also have new data on the race for King County Executive—data that, the source said, "is pretty consistent with what everyone else is talking about. It seems to have opened up with Dow in the lead.”

Here's a question for the McGinn campaign to ponder this afternoon while we await the official poll results:

After trashing a University of Washington poll that put McGinn eight points behind last week (citing, among other things, the Washington Poll's erroneous primary predictions), will McGinn's people now do a victory dance while holding the results from the new SurveyUSA poll (which, as mentioned above, also made erroneous primary predictions)?

Comments (13) RSS

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Have there been any recent polls concerning the likelihood of Carr getting kicked out of office like he deserves?

Posted by jw36 on November 2, 2009 at 1:02 PM

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.

Posted by ralph on November 2, 2009 at 1:04 PM

If you look at the R-71 polling, Survey USA shows a much narrower margin than Washington Poll does. Probably the difference in numbers is due to differences in how the polls are constructed, not to movement in the race.

Posted by Outos on November 2, 2009 at 1:14 PM

As long as the Cunt doesn't become Executive I am fine, the mayor's race I really don't care that much about. Both clowns scare the crap out of me; fortunately we have a pretty strong city council.

Posted by Cato the Younger Younger on November 2, 2009 at 1:20 PM

Are you going to get a quote from Baretto?

Posted by eday on November 2, 2009 at 1:32 PM

If they've addressed the methodology critiques with infills, you have to realize the voters at a later point in time are not the same as the voters at the initial point in time.

Main thing that determines this race will be one thing: voter turnout.

So mail in that frickin ballot already or drop it off without a stamp at a Neighborhood Center today - cause if you drop it off tomorrow, you may miss the last pickup as it must be postmarked tomorrow at the latest.

And consider joining the FB group I'll Bet I Can Get One Million Seattle Voters To Turn In Their Ballots. You'll find it next to the group Fluffy Bunnies Hoping For Obama To Build The Billionaires Tunnel For Free With Pretty Unicorns And Sparkle Vampires For Everyone.

Posted by Will in Seattle

on November 2, 2009 at 1:35 PM

Please let McGinn win - he's the first with the balls to run for the local brass ring on a half-progressive agenda. Yeah, he hasn't got much to show for his twenty years of supposed work on behalf of that agenda. Still, even if he mostly flails around as mayor, it'll still put on notice those who genuinely claim progressive ideas: if they don't start working to groom seriously accomplished people to run, they risk another powerhungry clown coming along to co-opt their stuff again.

With him in office it will be a seriously entertaining-to-comment-on several years. If Mallahan wins it'll be same old same old.

Vote McGinn. The leathery gay has spoken.

Posted by gloomy gus on November 2, 2009 at 1:45 PM

@2: What breed is Mallahan, then?

My vote is on an elegant Appaloosa.

Posted by Baconcat on November 2, 2009 at 2:17 PM

Hey, they called me for this poll! On my landline, btw. I dutifully punched the buttons to indicate I voted for McGinn.

Posted by leek on November 2, 2009 at 2:43 PM

I am hearing that there were get out to Vote effort going on as we speak in many part of the city. Those Knockers are from McGinn people. This is a very serious threat to our Man "Mallahan". As someone who is not only volunteered MAllahan but also advised his compaign, I am very disappointed how the things are unfolding. Mallahan has completely relied on people who are not intouch with the common voters where mcGinn invested people and held many townhall meetin as late as yesterday. Well, it looks we are seeing things we were fearing most. i am getting ready to move Montana. McGinn is as dangerous as Nick Licata.

Posted by African1 on November 2, 2009 at 2:57 PM

There are some very unenthusiastic Mallahan sign-wavers on the 45th Avenue I-5 overpass right now. I'm not saying that they're being paid to stand there, but they sure don't seem like true believers.

Posted by DOUG.