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Thursday, November 5, 2009

City Mallahan Campaign: Recount Looks Inevitable

Posted by Dominic Holden on Thu, Nov 5, 2009 at 5:55 PM

Reacting to the latest results in the mayor's race, Joe Mallahan's campaign spokeswoman Charla Neuman says, "I don't see how this doesn't go to a recount. Something very abnormal would have to happen at this point." Mallahan is trailing by only 515 votes, which is just a 0.4 percent difference.

Despite three sets of returns showing Mike McGinn with a razor-thin advantage, Neuman has "some initial reasons to be optimistic," she says. Certain legislative districts may be underrepresented among the votes tallied thus far. Those uncounted votes, she says, "are from neighborhoods that could be more favorable to Joe Mallahan."

According to a summary of results from election night, released earlier today by election workers, the 34th and 46th Legislative Districts favored Mallahan. McGinn held an advantage in the 11th, 37th, and 43rd Districts. The 36th District was essentially tied, favoring Mallahan by only 50 votes. Again, those are only election-night results. Over 60,000 votes have been tallied since.

If the ballots yet to be counted disproportionately represent voters from the 46th and 34th Districts (northeast Seattle and West Seattle), we could see Mallahan take the lead. "We will know more after tonight when we get a better look," says Neuman. King County is estimated to have slightly over 80,000 uncounted Seattle ballots on hand.

Comments (20) RSS

Oldest First Unregistered On Registered On Add a comment

LOL.

Won't help.

Seattle has spoken.

Posted by Will in Seattle

on November 5, 2009 at 5:55 PM

Dino Mallahan, eh?

Posted by Baconcat on November 5, 2009 at 5:58 PM

I sure hope that's the case.

Posted by Michael from Washington on November 5, 2009 at 5:59 PM

Jesus Will, you are such an ass in this campaign. Give it a fucking rest.

Posted by Shut up already on November 5, 2009 at 6:02 PM

@2, pretty funny following Eli's blog post about how we're in "required by law" automatic recount territory right now.

There's nothing more refreshing than trashing a fellow Democrat, though, is there? I know you're only following The Stranger's lead on the childish attacks, but get over it already.

Posted by serotonein on November 5, 2009 at 6:08 PM

I like Will. His thousands of pro-McGinn comments all over the Internet may have made the difference in this super-tight election.

McGinn told me privately that he's going to return the favor by building 100 story residential towers in the middle of every city park.

Posted by also will grant a restraining order on fnarf on November 5, 2009 at 6:10 PM

#5: Sure, the anti-bike trail, anti-light rail, pro-new highway guy whose only community experience is fundraising for a church that hosts anti-abortion groups and Ken Hutcherson is a democrat. The guy whose last political job was working for Slade Gorton is a democrat. Just like Susan Hutchison, right?

Posted by Your vote was bought by a conservative douche on November 5, 2009 at 6:16 PM

@2 McGinn would say the same thing if he were down by 515 votes.

Posted by Nic in Greenlake on November 5, 2009 at 6:16 PM

Will, your work here is ultimately what caused me to vote for Mallahan as I couldn't decide between the two. I wonder how many other votes you lost.

Posted by zzyzx on November 5, 2009 at 6:20 PM

It's okay @9, the rest of us here have more than cancelled you out...

Posted by COMTE

on November 5, 2009 at 6:23 PM

You guys have apparently never watched an election in this state. We will be allowed to continue voting for Mallahan until a majority of us vote for him.

Remember the Statium, the Viaduct, the Sonics, the Governer, etc... etc... etc...

Is there really that much difference? Do you really care?

Posted by six shooter on November 5, 2009 at 6:24 PM

@8 Dino McGinn is the scariest name you've ever heard.
Dino McGinn = Gangs of New York + The Sopranos.
Dino McGinn doesn't need a recount, he just waltzes into the Sec'y of State's office and has a chat.
Dino McGinn drives a matte black Escalade with illegal tinting and puncture-proof tires.

Dino McGinn is NOT your new bicycle, you cocksucker!

Posted by samiaint on November 5, 2009 at 6:29 PM

@5: Oh, can the feigned offense.

Charla is jumping out of the gate before the final tally and is all but calling for a recount. With 80k votes left. Right. @8 may be right about McGinn saying similar if things were reversed, but that's not the case right now so hypotheticals don't matter one shred. Charla is writing a narrative.

And of course, you can't POSSIBLY be clutching your pearls about trashing people, can you? Wow.

Posted by Baconcat on November 5, 2009 at 6:31 PM

I think what the Mallahan camp is telling us more specifically is that Joe's committed to a recount if he can get it. Shot noise on the 130,000 ballots counted so far is 0.3%, so give it a 1/2σ, 30% chance that McGinn improves his share of the vote for the last 80,000 uncounted from 50.2% (not counting write-ins) to 50.35%. Final vote gap is then nearly 1100, or 0.52% of the vote total.

So there's actually a pretty good chance the recount isn't automatic, all things being equal (which they're not, I know). What IS unlikely is that McGinn carries the 50.9% of the uncounted ballots he'd need to escape Mallahan's recount option. Call it a 5% chance.

This one's gonna last a few more weeks, I think.

Posted by devilsmoke on November 5, 2009 at 6:44 PM

Oh my. Certain legislative districts MAY be underrepresented, and those neighborhoods COULD be more favorable to Joe Mallahan. Check.

Posted by w7ngman

on November 5, 2009 at 7:11 PM

I'm actually fairly indifferent to the eventual results of the mayoral race, but this crowing about how "Seattle has spoken" and against recounts is especially nonsensical. In any race of this size separated by such a small number of votes, reading these results as decisive and unworthy of confirmation is perversely blindered.

Posted by josh

on November 5, 2009 at 7:18 PM

"perversely blindered"

petition to forcibly change Will's name to this

Posted by Reader1 on November 5, 2009 at 8:31 PM

These hair margin elections are sort of frightening.

I mean, it seems like as a People we're 50-50 split on so many things...can it really be that way?!

Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe