As noted in yesterday's Morning News, King County will avoid cutting much bus service over the next two years. This is good, considering Metro was forecast a few months ago to cut nine percent of service overall (fewer buses and less service at fewer times of day). Instead, nearly every bus trip will remain.
But there's a downside. Rising the bus is about to get more expensive—again. Fares are already scheduled to go up by 25 cents on the first day of 2010; this plan includes another 25-cent jump in 2011. That would push the cost of an in-city rush hour trip to $2.50, twice its cost before 2001.
Most of Metro's increases this decade have come in the last two years. In-city peak rates were raised from $1.25 to $1.50 in 2001, but didn't see another 25-cent increase until 2008. Another followed this year, hiking the fare to $2. Is that enough to send more commuters back into their cars?
“Long and short of it, our ridership has declined quite a bit this year," said Kevin Desmond, Metro's general manager. “Our ridership trends really will depend on how soon jobs come back.” But Desmond doesn't blame the drop in ridership on the increased fares.
Like other recent increases, all full-price fares will go up by a flat 25 cents, whether the trip is one mile or 20. Over the last ten years, these flat-rate increases have pushed the cost of Seattle bus trips closer to that of longer trips to the suburbs. Before 2001, the cost of two-zone trip (from Seattle to the suburbs) was 40 percent more than an in-city trip. In 2011, the difference will be just 20 percent. It's the result of an agreement to standardize fare systems between several transit agencies, says Desmond. “As part of that, we all agreed to move fare increases a quarter at a time,” he said, although saying that has the potential to change.
The higher fares aren't Metro's fault, either. The agency is scraping by as best it can. It doesn't have any further taxing authority under state law—it tried earlier this year, but the governor in May vetoed a provision in a bill that would have allowed a car-tab tax to go to the ballot. But Desmond says they'll be back this year. “We’re gonna look at everything," he said. "I think the key is this is a very very deep structural problem.”
Sure, there's quite a bit of a downside to all this, but it's a far cry from the disaster scenario that the county was looking at a few months ago, and Metro seems to have managed to dodge a barrage of bullets.
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