I'd bet that Referendum 1 will be approved next Tuesday by 53 to 47 percent. Maybe more. Credit a compelling message—a dishonest message, but a compelling one—and money.

Let's Move Forward, which is advocating that voters approve the measure to proceed with the deep-bore tunnel, has been running TV spots in heavy rotation (McGinn and Eyman want surface option that would replace the viaduct with "nothing"), a mail campaign ("one vote to end gridlock"), and a steady drumbeat about transit ("includes more frequent bus service"). None of that is actually true, but those lies resonate.

As for cash, the latest filings from the Seattle Ethics and Elections Commission show that Let's Move Forward has raised $447,521, more than four times anti-tunnel campaign Protect Seattle Now's $95,374, which was spent mostly just getting on the ballot.

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Let's Move Forward has raised $420,669 in large contributions, much of those over $5,000, which makes up 94 percent of their haul, according to campaign records. Business interests that stand to make money off the tunnel's construction—the tunnel contractors—are the largest backers.

For comparison, Protect Seattle Now has raised only $48,640 from large donors, which make up 51 percent of contributors. Many of those donors are progressive grassroots organizations and individuals:

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The anti-tunnel message has never been terribly concise, relying on data that show the tunnel is underfunded and performs poorly, and suggesting that surface/transit would be the default result of killing the tunnel. I think those more nuanced arguments lose next to the pro-tunnel battle cries. (Free buses! Progress! Vote or you'll die on the viaduct! The mayor's in bed with Voldemort! I'll give you my steering wheel when you pry it from my cold, dead hands!)

It's legal to be dishonest about a referendum, there are no contribution limits in ballot measure campaigns, and there's nothing un-American about protecting business interests by bankrolling a campaign. It's all fair game. So, much as I'd like to see voters reject this thing, I suspect that liars are going to win this one.

But I'm hoping you prove me wrong, Seattle.