As Eli's already pointed out, Initiative 1125 isn't doing so well. In fact, if the poll numbers are to be believed, the Eyman/Freeman anti-tolling/anti-light-rail initiative is going to fail.

Yeah sure, the top-line numbers show a 41-40 statistical dead heat, but scratch just beneath the surface and you see I-1125's support weak and weakening. When you look only at those respondents who are "certain" to vote Yes or No, I-1125 now ends up on the losing side of 25-30 margin, meaning there's a lot more room to sway Yes voters than No. No wonder then that as election day draws closer, I-1125 loses support. Over the first 10 days of the survey, the initiative led by a cumulative 42-37 margin; over the final 10 days it trailed 41-43, a significant 7-point swing.

Eli's right that the I-1125 benefits from an extremely advantageous ballot title, but with little money to market the measure in the face of a couple million dollar No campaign, it's just not advantageous enough. I've covered enough initiatives to know a losing one when I see one. And so a week before the ballots are due, I'm ready to call it. I-1125 will fail, and by a comfortable margin... maybe 7 to 9 points, when all the ballots are counted. Maybe even double digits.

So now that I've stuck my neck out, please send in your ballots and prove me right.