Slog
News & ArtsThursday, February 9, 2012
Gay Marriage / Election Republicans Put Gay Marriage on the Ballot at Their Own Risk
Posted by Goldy on Thu, Feb 9, 2012 at 4:10 PM
One of the more interesting things about yesterday's House vote to approve marriage equality, was that it happened yesterday.
There had been a lot of speculation that House Dems might wait to the very last moment to approve the bill and send it on to Governor Gregoire for signing, so as to give opponents as little time as possible to gather signatures on a referendum. But apparently they've chosen not to play that particular game.
Why? Well, one reason might be the assumption that a referendum is a foregone conclusion. With national anti-gay organizations pledging big money to the cause, the signature threshold won't amount to much of a hurdle, no matter the allotted time. Maybe.
But I also wonder if the the Democratic leadership might not welcome a referendum this fall?
One of the truisms about initiatives and referenda is that ballot measures drive turnout, and high turnout almost always favors Democrats. Sure, such a referendum would drive turnout among both supporters and opponents, but if a recent Washington Poll can be trusted, this still should work to the Democrats' advantage.
According to the poll, 55 percent of respondents said they would vote "Yes" on a referendum to affirm marriage equality legislation, while only 38 percent said they would vote "No." But more importantly from a turnout perspective, 47 percent said they "strongly favor" such a referendum, while only 31 percent said they "strongly oppose" it.
The passion appears to be more on the Yes side.
There's a reason why backers chose 2012 as the year for both marijuana legalization and gay marriage to hit the ballot. A presidential election cycle turns out more voters, and disproportionately liberal voters to boot. But these ballot measures will also turn out more liberal voters on their own, and that means more votes for Democrats like Barack Obama, Maria Cantwell, and Jay Inslee.
So while I'd prefer to see marriage equality just coast into law unchallenged, if conservatives want to help turn out Dems by putting it on the ballot, I say bring it on. It just might provide the electoral edge, say, Inslee needs to push him into the governor's mansion.
1
Goldy, this is an aside to your larger point, but I wouldn't be so sanguine about that 55% report from the WA poll.
The Field Poll in California has included the question in their regular surveys for some time, and before the Prop 8 fight began it reported attitudes also slightly in favor. The Yes on 8 campaign shifted attitudes. There is no reason to think the same couldn't also happen here, sadly.
The Field Poll in California has included the question in their regular surveys for some time, and before the Prop 8 fight began it reported attitudes also slightly in favor. The Yes on 8 campaign shifted attitudes. There is no reason to think the same couldn't also happen here, sadly.
2
But don't you dread having to listen to historical ignoramuses parrot the nonsense about how minority rights have never been won at the ballot box? And how there's some great imaginary principle that some guy in his jammies on the Internet once made up that says you can't vote on civil rights?
That shit gets old and we're going to have to hear it all over again it for like a half year. I thought it was Wikipedia's job to disabuse people of their bullshit notions. List Of Common Misconceptions. Am I right?
Shut up. I am right.
That shit gets old and we're going to have to hear it all over again it for like a half year. I thought it was Wikipedia's job to disabuse people of their bullshit notions. List Of Common Misconceptions. Am I right?
Shut up. I am right.
4
Goldy,
Any thoughts on the possibility that we might have both a referendum and an initiative? Will that confuse voters (and like the booze thing) and just make them vote no on both? Or not matter? Or...???
Any thoughts on the possibility that we might have both a referendum and an initiative? Will that confuse voters (and like the booze thing) and just make them vote no on both? Or not matter? Or...???
5
See, put it on the ballot and young people vote.
And that is not good for them.
Now all we need is a Monorail on the ballot paid for by a Tax on Billionaires, and the whole state will go Blue.
And that is not good for them.
Now all we need is a Monorail on the ballot paid for by a Tax on Billionaires, and the whole state will go Blue.
6
After witnessing the gross and dishonest campaign the prop H8ers ran in California in 2008, you should be wary of what any polls tell you before the ads hit the airwaves. They've been at this for years and they are very good at what they do.
7
is it legal in WA to stand next to signature gatherers on the street and take photos of people signing initiatives/referendums?
8
@6 They are, and unfortunately our side is pretty piss-poor at adapting their campaign tactics to suit.
@3 That was domestic partnerships, so don't assume the outcome will be the same. I mean, if the two were easily comparable, we wouldn't be having this conversation right now, right?
@3 That was domestic partnerships, so don't assume the outcome will be the same. I mean, if the two were easily comparable, we wouldn't be having this conversation right now, right?
9
I will stand by my homo citizens and fight this presumed ballot measure till the bitter end.
GO FUCK YOURSELVES, BIGOTS!!
GO FUCK YOURSELVES, BIGOTS!!
10
it might all be academic anyway. the 9th circuit said in the perry decision handed down tuesday that it's unconstitutional to give the right to marriage to a group and then take it away. so i'm thinking that as long as the legislation takes effect before the vote, it's all good, regardless of the outcome. i'm still a student, though, so i might be missing something - any lawyers out there, feel free to school me.
11
To people invoking Prop 8, that was 4 years ago in a different state with a Democratic presidential candidate that was LGBT-shy. My how times have changed.
12
The most consistent statistic in guiding what happened to Prop 8 was that religious groups are able to sway their congregants on novel social issue votes. Given that California is significantly more religious than Washington State (surprising, I know!) and the existence of R-71, that factor is greatly diminished.
Another factor in the pre-Prop 8 polling was that for some time opponents were able to point out that this was a ban on marriage equality. The first polls all suggested a solid "yes" on Prop 8 while subsequent polls bounced back and forth within that narrow ultimate margin.
There's also the fact that Prop 8 was brought up because of a court decision. Legislative acts typically elicit a far softer response. And if we've already gone through a legislative rodeo -- like with R-71 -- it's even less contentious.
That's not to say this will be easy, but it's not as hard as it sounds. There's no need to be scattered out into the wilderness over this. If we compare the WA Poll between R-71 and October 2011, we see an interesting trend: support grows among all groups, +2 for Dems and Republicans and a whopping +6 for Independents. Men also moved +5 points. Millennials also shifted.
What we know is that independents, democrats and young voters turn out in larger proportions in a presidential election year. The trend is positive in that respect.
This early it's all about trends and knowing that trends have moved pretty steadily in our direction we're in a pretty good position.
Stay the course, keep up with the APPROVE MARRIAGE EQUALITY message and don't let up. Don't get into fights over "he's a bigot" and "she's a bigot", just keep it about APPROVING MARRIAGE EQUALITY.
Another factor in the pre-Prop 8 polling was that for some time opponents were able to point out that this was a ban on marriage equality. The first polls all suggested a solid "yes" on Prop 8 while subsequent polls bounced back and forth within that narrow ultimate margin.
There's also the fact that Prop 8 was brought up because of a court decision. Legislative acts typically elicit a far softer response. And if we've already gone through a legislative rodeo -- like with R-71 -- it's even less contentious.
That's not to say this will be easy, but it's not as hard as it sounds. There's no need to be scattered out into the wilderness over this. If we compare the WA Poll between R-71 and October 2011, we see an interesting trend: support grows among all groups, +2 for Dems and Republicans and a whopping +6 for Independents. Men also moved +5 points. Millennials also shifted.
What we know is that independents, democrats and young voters turn out in larger proportions in a presidential election year. The trend is positive in that respect.
This early it's all about trends and knowing that trends have moved pretty steadily in our direction we're in a pretty good position.
Stay the course, keep up with the APPROVE MARRIAGE EQUALITY message and don't let up. Don't get into fights over "he's a bigot" and "she's a bigot", just keep it about APPROVING MARRIAGE EQUALITY.
13
Goldy .. i am sure the homo-phobs have 90 days to get the signatures from the time the govenor signs the bill regardless of when she signs it.
Thats 12 bible-thumpin sundays ....
Thats 12 bible-thumpin sundays ....
14
@10 If the opposition gets a referendum qualified for the Nov. ballot, the marriage equality law won't got into effect until after the election (if we win). So the Prop 8 scenario probably won't work in that case. But, if the referendum doesn't get on the ballot but the initiative does and passes, the law would have been enacted before it was revoked and the Prop 8 scenario would apply.
I think.
I think.
15
AmyC: A successful referendum petition delays enactment of a law. So, if they get enough signatures turned in, it must wait until after the November election.
17
As far as attacking us with something new -- they can't.
In essence they already put marriage on the ballot with R-71. Their talking points, which flooded churches, talked about SB5688 as marriage.
Read for yourself: http://www.protectmarriagewa.com/index.p…
http://protectmarriagewa.com/images/stor…
http://protectmarriagewa.com/images/stor…
Those talking points and fliers, though? Yeah, same talking points they'll use this time around. Just better funded.
In essence they already put marriage on the ballot with R-71. Their talking points, which flooded churches, talked about SB5688 as marriage.
Read for yourself: http://www.protectmarriagewa.com/index.p…
http://protectmarriagewa.com/images/stor…
http://protectmarriagewa.com/images/stor…
Those talking points and fliers, though? Yeah, same talking points they'll use this time around. Just better funded.
18
Goldy is correct, and don't forget the antipathy for Romney on among the hard right will hurt Republican candidates (and issues) down the line...
19
Goldy, I think that's wishful thinking.
I don't see this issue bringing out more Democrats for it than there are Republicans against it. Maybe the marijuana issue. But not this.
Republicans vote against marriage equality because God told them so and if they don't their soul can burn for all eternity in a lake of fire.
Democrats vote for marriage equality because of a belief in some intellectual thing called equality, or because they know someone who is gay.
Who's more enthusiastic about voting on this?
Unless you are gay yourself or have a gay member of your IMMEDIATE family, you're probably not as enthusiastic as the guy in Spokane who thinks his soul's at stake.
(another reason why we need more atheists in office)
That's not to say that I hope I'm wrong and this goes down in flames while Inslee is elected in a landslide.
I don't see this issue bringing out more Democrats for it than there are Republicans against it. Maybe the marijuana issue. But not this.
Republicans vote against marriage equality because God told them so and if they don't their soul can burn for all eternity in a lake of fire.
Democrats vote for marriage equality because of a belief in some intellectual thing called equality, or because they know someone who is gay.
Who's more enthusiastic about voting on this?
Unless you are gay yourself or have a gay member of your IMMEDIATE family, you're probably not as enthusiastic as the guy in Spokane who thinks his soul's at stake.
(another reason why we need more atheists in office)
That's not to say that I hope I'm wrong and this goes down in flames while Inslee is elected in a landslide.
20
@13
No, they have 90 days from the end of session. They have until June 6th.
http://blogs.sos.wa.gov/FromOurCorner/in…
No, they have 90 days from the end of session. They have until June 6th.
http://blogs.sos.wa.gov/FromOurCorner/in…
21
2008 and 2009 both saw higher than average turnout in liberal counties.
I reckon this year will be no different ;)
I reckon this year will be no different ;)
22
@1 Liberal, but very religious, minorities make up much less of our population and so even if they turn out in droves and vote no it probably would not effect things too much. Certainly not to the extent it did in California.
23
@19, Young voters support marriage equality in far greater numbers, and far more passionately than older voters, and it is young voters who are by far the hardest to turn out. If this measure helps bump up the youth vote—which it will—that will in turn be a huge boost for Dems up and down the ticket.
As for comparisons to Prop 8 in California, this is a less churched, more libertarian state, and public opinion to gays in general and gay marriage in particular has trended sharply over the past few years. It's an entirely different electorate.
I'm not saying this will be easy. But a five point or greater margin in favor wouldn't surprise me.
As for comparisons to Prop 8 in California, this is a less churched, more libertarian state, and public opinion to gays in general and gay marriage in particular has trended sharply over the past few years. It's an entirely different electorate.
I'm not saying this will be easy. But a five point or greater margin in favor wouldn't surprise me.
24
The other way to look at it is that the Presidential election and the pot initiative will bring out a bunch of young voters, who will also vote for marriage equality because they are already voting, so why not?
25
Carl Rove has used this very ploy to get the opposite effect in red states. We won't only be voting for president next fall; we'll also be voting for governor, so this might be Gregoire's parting shot at McKenna. Get the dems motivated to vote. WA's electoral votes will go blue, as always. The votes for governor ore less assured.
26
Just make sure you don't grow complacent. Someone needs to be ready for when NOM brings the hate, and that requires money and energy.
But I do think we have less of a battle than Prop8 entailed. As Lurleen pointed out in #11 above, Prop 8 was 4 years ago, it was a reaction to a court ruling, not a legislative action, NY has already paved the way, and we already have "everything but marriage".
To be honest, I'm surprised the issue progressed here as it did, as I assumed having the "everything but marriage" law in place would make the legislature reluctant to put the finishing touches on it. But they did, so kudos to Gregoire and whoever else mustered up the political will.
But I do think we have less of a battle than Prop8 entailed. As Lurleen pointed out in #11 above, Prop 8 was 4 years ago, it was a reaction to a court ruling, not a legislative action, NY has already paved the way, and we already have "everything but marriage".
To be honest, I'm surprised the issue progressed here as it did, as I assumed having the "everything but marriage" law in place would make the legislature reluctant to put the finishing touches on it. But they did, so kudos to Gregoire and whoever else mustered up the political will.
27
I'm afraid I don't have your confidence, Goldy (or Baconcat). Yes, it has polled ahead recently, but was that poll of recent actual voters? There is a difference between polling the general public, polling registered voters, and polling people who actually consistently vote. The people who actually consistently vote are generally older. Older people as a group are still firmly against marriage equality. Unless we can actually drive newer younger voters to actually fill out their ballots and mail them in, we could be fucked, and not in a good way.
We cannot dismiss the ugliness, lies, and distortion of the coming campaign. All the money the Mormons and NOM threw at Prop 8 shifted the California electorate several points against marriage, and they'll do the same thing here.
This will be a very close thing, and it could very well go either way. When I see people saying "Bring it on", it makes me cringe. This is not a sure thing.
We cannot dismiss the ugliness, lies, and distortion of the coming campaign. All the money the Mormons and NOM threw at Prop 8 shifted the California electorate several points against marriage, and they'll do the same thing here.
This will be a very close thing, and it could very well go either way. When I see people saying "Bring it on", it makes me cringe. This is not a sure thing.
28
Now or later, the battle is going to have to be fought at the polls eventually. A presidential election year with a pot legalization initiative on the ballot is about the best time I can imagine going for it. Somewhere, eventually, some state is going to have to pass a marriage equality referendum. Why not us? Why not now?
29
I am skeptical of any electoral bonus ... but if they want a high-profile showdown in our state this year?
Bring 'em on, and take 'em down.
Bring 'em on, and take 'em down.
30
such a great post it is. i appreciate your look. such a great job you have done. waiting for more post on this. marriage
31
@27: It was real actual and genuine voters.
The first part of victory is assuring yourself that victory is possible.
The first part of victory is assuring yourself that victory is possible.
32
@7 It is legal to take a photo of anyone or any thing from a public place. You may not use a person's image for commercial gain but for editorial use all is good.
Advertisement
Most Commented on Slog
-
It's Spring! Who's Ready for Street Harassment? by Cienna Madrid
-
New Gun Enthusiast... by Dan Savage
-
SL Letter of the Day: Gonna Boil My Laptop After Answering This One by Dan Savage
-
America Doesn't Care About Black People by Charles Mudede
-
Bigot Florist Files Countersuit by Dominic Holden
-
US Military Grants Itself the Power to Police American Streets and "Quell" "Civil Disturbances" by Brendan Kiley
-
SL Letter of the Day: Living Discomfortably by Dan Savage
-
Slog Super Poll: Who Should Be Mayor? by Dominic Holden
-
Black Market Elimination Fail: Draft Pot Rules Call for Ban on Hash and Hash Oil by Ben Livingston
-
Tim Burgess Quits the Mayor's Race by Dominic Holden
Stranger Personals
The Stranger
RSSSeattle Art & Performance Quarterly
A complete guide to Seattle's current art, film, dance, and theater season.
Facebook
Twitter
Comments (32) RSS