Slog
News & ArtsWednesday, April 18, 2012
2012 Here Come the Mittmentum Stories
Posted by Paul Constant on Wed, Apr 18, 2012 at 11:26 AM
Lately, there have been a number of stories about Mitt Romney catching up to President Obama in the polls and gaining "momentum." Here's the latest example. There will be more over the next two weeks or so. I have two things to say about this:
1. Any Republican would be polling even with Barack Obama at this point in the race. The Republican primary has more or less finished and conservatives are aligning behind their anointed candidate. Any idiot could see this coming.
2. National polls are entirely meaningless. All that matters is the electoral college.
But there is a corollary: Though these polls are totally foreseeable and not a big deal, it's important to note that if the media gets bored enough, it could pursue an Obama-is-in-trouble narrative, and that narrative could wind up becoming the reality. The Obama campaign had better be working overtime to make sure the media doesn't get bored enough for that to happen.
2
He has so much momentum, today he proposed taxing our 401(k) plans.
No, seriously, it's on the Washington Post.
Oh, but Citi giving the CEO an excessive pay package that 60 percent of shareOWNERS voted against - Mittens loves that!
No, seriously, it's on the Washington Post.
Oh, but Citi giving the CEO an excessive pay package that 60 percent of shareOWNERS voted against - Mittens loves that!
3
There are a lot of people out there who really don't like Obama, for whatever reason (ahem). OK, nobody "likes" Romney either, but unlike Democrats, Republicans will hold their noses and vote for him anyway.
Paul's right about the electoral college being the only thing that matters, but that's where it gets really scary. That's pretty much a coin toss too.
Paul's right about the electoral college being the only thing that matters, but that's where it gets really scary. That's pretty much a coin toss too.
4
Paul,
Your spin is intriguing. Would you have said that had a Republican been President? I have a guarded respect for polls. This one was national (read the piece in the NYT). @3 is right. It's the EC that counts. It's very close there too. It's the state surveys that are much more important especially the swing states. Yep, this race is very close.
Your spin is intriguing. Would you have said that had a Republican been President? I have a guarded respect for polls. This one was national (read the piece in the NYT). @3 is right. It's the EC that counts. It's very close there too. It's the state surveys that are much more important especially the swing states. Yep, this race is very close.
5
@3,
The bitching on Slog notwithstanding, Obama has a very high approval rating among Democrats. And most of the liberals who claim to hate him will vote for him anyway.
The bitching on Slog notwithstanding, Obama has a very high approval rating among Democrats. And most of the liberals who claim to hate him will vote for him anyway.
7
The Obama campaign has a history of angling for the on-the-ropes / underdog narrative, then comes out swinging when the election nears. Expect this summer and fall to be tedious and agonizing.
8
@5 Agreed. There really only seems to be about 5 people like me who are upset enough with him to not vote for him. Pisses me off to no end, but it's the truth.
9
@5, I still believe there may be a danger in quite a few disaffected lefties and some youth sitting on their hands rather than voting for Obama: Since getting elected his administration has gone out of their way to bash the left base of the dems (many of those people manned the phone banks and banged on doors for Obama's election), punish whistleblowers, and allow the crimes of Wall Street and the Bush Administration go uninvestigated and unpunished on top of bending over backwards to placate republicans.
As far as the electoral college, one could be more reliant on it assuming a fair election, but also beware of those touch screen voting machines with hackable software and no paper trails that always seem to favor republicans when vote totals are close.
As far as the electoral college, one could be more reliant on it assuming a fair election, but also beware of those touch screen voting machines with hackable software and no paper trails that always seem to favor republicans when vote totals are close.
13
The Electoral College is close?? That's news to me.
Between "safe" and "strong", there are 305 EV for Obama.
Between "safe" and "strong", there are 305 EV for Obama.
15
@ 12, we'll be able to judge by the comments you make, the posts you make them on, the posts you leave without comment, and whether you'll ever be active on Slog after the election is over.
16
@14: No, I really am gay.
@15: Fair enough. But you're really clasping at stereotypes if you conclude that my lack of comments on Jen Graves posts means that I never got my gay license.
@15: Fair enough. But you're really clasping at stereotypes if you conclude that my lack of comments on Jen Graves posts means that I never got my gay license.
17
Of course the polls show Obama and Romney running neck and neck. Of course they show support for Romney solidifying. The primary season is effectively over.
A few months of "Obama is on the ropes" news chatter isn't necessarily a bad thing. If nothing else it will help with his efforts to raise funds (yes he needs the money cut those $10 n $20 checks people, this is going to be expensive n brutal), it will also help with his grass roots organizing efforts. Oh yeah Obama is on the ground, fucking everywhere quietly organizing n working.
This election is going to be ugly, brutal, revolting, disgusting, and likely the most expensive in our history. (adjusted for inflation 1898 holds that title now).
As for all you liberals and progressives out there who are butthurt because, OMG "Obama can't walk on water, raise the dead, part the sea" or whatever. Get The Fuck Over It.
Think the Tea Baggers are scary now? Think your Uterus is in trouble now? Think we are mired in senseless wars now? Think our health care system is a mess now? Think income inequality is a problem now? Think your civil liberties are in trouble now?
Then sit on your ass crying into your hemp hankie. Go on do it. Let Romney get elected with his balls firmly locked in a Tea Bagger neo-con vise. Then tell me four years from now how well that worked out for you.
A few months of "Obama is on the ropes" news chatter isn't necessarily a bad thing. If nothing else it will help with his efforts to raise funds (yes he needs the money cut those $10 n $20 checks people, this is going to be expensive n brutal), it will also help with his grass roots organizing efforts. Oh yeah Obama is on the ground, fucking everywhere quietly organizing n working.
This election is going to be ugly, brutal, revolting, disgusting, and likely the most expensive in our history. (adjusted for inflation 1898 holds that title now).
As for all you liberals and progressives out there who are butthurt because, OMG "Obama can't walk on water, raise the dead, part the sea" or whatever. Get The Fuck Over It.
Think the Tea Baggers are scary now? Think your Uterus is in trouble now? Think we are mired in senseless wars now? Think our health care system is a mess now? Think income inequality is a problem now? Think your civil liberties are in trouble now?
Then sit on your ass crying into your hemp hankie. Go on do it. Let Romney get elected with his balls firmly locked in a Tea Bagger neo-con vise. Then tell me four years from now how well that worked out for you.
18
I'm concluding it based on your shilling for Rmoney, specifically the things you say in his support.
Who knows - you may surprise me with something in the future and make me question my conclusion. I kinda doubt it, though.
Who knows - you may surprise me with something in the future and make me question my conclusion. I kinda doubt it, though.
20
What do you mean "COULD pursue an Obama-is-in-trouble narrative"??!!?? They started that months ago, and now the full-court-press is starting with The Washington Post -
"The GSA and Secret Service scandals: A political problem for President Obama?"
Daily Beast: "Obama's Sexy Scandals: Secret Service Colombian Hookers, GSA Vegas Trips"
You're going to be seeing "Obama - scandal" "Obama -prostitution" headlines over and over again.
"Clinton - Whitewater" "Clinton - Whitewater" "Clinton - Whitewater"...
"The GSA and Secret Service scandals: A political problem for President Obama?"
Daily Beast: "Obama's Sexy Scandals: Secret Service Colombian Hookers, GSA Vegas Trips"
You're going to be seeing "Obama - scandal" "Obama -prostitution" headlines over and over again.
"Clinton - Whitewater" "Clinton - Whitewater" "Clinton - Whitewater"...
21
Imagine the right-wing aneurysm if Obama were to lose the popular vote, but win in the Electoral College. You think the Tea Party's nutty now? It's a truly frightening thought.
22
@17 were you alive in the year 2000? how about 2004? if so then why do you still believe that voting makes a difference? or which side wins for that matter? it's all just a show and you're too engrossed in it to see what's really going on
23
@22 - Voting makes a difference because we got two conservative Supreme Court justices under Bush. It's safe to say that we can thank the people who didn't vote for Gore for Citizens United.
(By the way - I get sick of people shrugging and saying, "The court was headed that way anyway." So, because the court was headed that way, we shouldn't have done everything possible to prevent it from ending up there? Jesus.)
Kagan, Obama's sole appointee, decided against CU. There's no possible reason to believe the that the two appointments that Gore didn't have a chance to make would have done differently; Instead of a 5/4 decision for CU, it would have been 3/6 decision opposed. Even if one of Gore's appointees goes against it, it fails.
So, voting matters for that reason, but also for all the reason @17 lists.
(By the way - I get sick of people shrugging and saying, "The court was headed that way anyway." So, because the court was headed that way, we shouldn't have done everything possible to prevent it from ending up there? Jesus.)
Kagan, Obama's sole appointee, decided against CU. There's no possible reason to believe the that the two appointments that Gore didn't have a chance to make would have done differently; Instead of a 5/4 decision for CU, it would have been 3/6 decision opposed. Even if one of Gore's appointees goes against it, it fails.
So, voting matters for that reason, but also for all the reason @17 lists.
24
@22 Oh that's easy. Cuz the Electoral College actually works. It works in both unfortunate and fortunate ways.
There is a reason for the tension.
That doesn't change the fact that now is the time, now is the hour, to pull hard and drag the frightened in the direction of their own self interest.
Yeah it is sad. But it is what it is.
22 get over it. Step up and actually look for solutions rather then how butthurt your feel.
There is a reason for the tension.
That doesn't change the fact that now is the time, now is the hour, to pull hard and drag the frightened in the direction of their own self interest.
Yeah it is sad. But it is what it is.
22 get over it. Step up and actually look for solutions rather then how butthurt your feel.
25
GDFR, why did you just suddenly show up here now? Why weren't you posting your love for Romney, the candidate of your dreams, all during the primaries?
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