WaPo:

New Washington Post-ABC News poll. Likely voters in the new poll split 49 percent for Obama to 46 percent for Romney, basically unmoved from the poll two weeks ago, just before the two candidates met in Denver for their first debate. On topic after topic, the survey portrays an electorate that remains deeply divided along partisan lines and locked in its views.

Politico:

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters puts Obama ahead of Romney 49 percent to 48 percent, a statistical tie and the same as the week before.

However, a look at the recent history of the POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll shows Obama only lost a single point after the debate.

As for Romney being more likable, my guess is that those gains were made among voters who are going to vote GOP no matter what but didn't like like the candidate—Paul Constant has written extensively about this.

The sad thing is this: Obama still has to be cautious. He still has the lead. He just can't "go rogue" during the debate or at any other part of the final stretch. Going rogue is something a black man must not do.