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Thursday, October 18, 2012

Inslee, Marriage Equality Up in New KCTS-9 Washington Poll

Posted by on Thu, Oct 18, 2012 at 12:37 PM

The poll I've been waiting for all week (the Washington Poll) has finally been released, and it contains some mostly encouraging news:

U.S. President
Barack Obama (D) 51.8%
Mitt Romney (R) 41.3%
Gary Johnson (L) 1.3%
Jill Stein (G) 0.3%
Other 1.4%
Undecided 3.9%

Washington Governor
Jay Inslee (D) 47.9%
Rob McKenna (R) 44.7%
Undecided 7.4%

U.S. Senate – Washington
Maria Cantwell (D) 58.3%
Michael Baumgartner (R) 34.8%
Undecided 6.9%

Referendum 74 – Marriage Equality
Yes 56.3%
No 35.6%
Undecided 6.1%

Initiative 502 – Legalizing and Regulating Marijuana
Yes 50.9%
No 40.8%
Undecided 8.3%

Initiative 1185 – 2/3 Majority to Raise Taxes
Yes 53.6%
No 31.2%
Undecided 15.2%

Initiative 1240 – Charter Schools
Yes 47.5%
No 39.2%
Undecided 13.3%

More analysis after they release the cross tabs, but my initial reaction is that yet another poll showing a small but steady lead for Inslee is very good news for Inslee, and that support for Marriage Equality looks encouragingly strong.


Comments (22) RSS

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MacCrocodile 1
Well, I'm not too happy about those last two, but at least I don't have any kids of my own that'll suffer for it.
Posted by MacCrocodile on October 18, 2012 at 12:51 PM · Report this
That poll has Obama at a lower percentage than John Kerry got in 2004, which isn't encouraging. If Obama can't pull 55% HERE, it's gonna be super tight in Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, etc.
Posted by DOUG. on October 18, 2012 at 12:53 PM · Report this
Baconcat 3
They preemptively unskewed the results in the full results but R-74 is still ~55. More encouraging, however, is the top lines which show standard talking points on either side really only grow support for R-74, but by a smaller margin. These include the "all the same rights" and "for the kids" talking points.…
Posted by Baconcat on October 18, 2012 at 12:54 PM · Report this
(Though Romney's well below the 45% that Bush got in 2004...)
Posted by DOUG. on October 18, 2012 at 12:56 PM · Report this
Goldy 5
@1 Those aren't good numbers for 1240. No ballot measure wants to be under 50 percent three weeks out. When in doubt, voters tend to break "No."

But yes, the 1185 results are disappointing. If somebody had a couple million dollars to spend to defeat it, we could. But barring that, I'm guessing it passes.
Posted by Goldy on October 18, 2012 at 12:59 PM · Report this
@Doug: Obama has an advantage in Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado relative to Washington. Washington's unemployment rate is 8.6%, well above the national average. Colorado is about average, Ohio is 7.2%, and Virginia is 5.9%. The Auto bailout has helped the Ohio economy tremendously. If Ohio's unemployment was as high as Washington's, Obama would be in real trouble there. As it is, he's in good shape.
Posted by sarge on October 18, 2012 at 1:08 PM · Report this
Cato the Younger Younger 7
Didn't Paul try to terrorize everyone last night by freaking out about a single poll showing that Obama could fall to Romney in Washington State?

And yeah, charter schools are coming which is gong to suck. So if you have kids you'd better be making a shit load of money to get a decent education for your child.
Posted by Cato the Younger Younger on October 18, 2012 at 1:09 PM · Report this
Simone 8
Not too happy about the last two. Here's hoping that those who answered yes were mostly in Eastern Washington.
Posted by Simone on October 18, 2012 at 1:09 PM · Report this
Will in Seattle 9
Isn't this some socialist poll from some rinky dink university or something?

Posted by Will in Seattle on October 18, 2012 at 1:10 PM · Report this
Will in Seattle 10
By the way, best advice is: Vote Early. Vote Often.

Get that ballot in NOW.
Posted by Will in Seattle on October 18, 2012 at 1:19 PM · Report this
That undecided for charter schools is where the work needs to go. But I think Elway polling is right: support continues to drop as you get closer to Election Day for most initiatives.
Posted by westello on October 18, 2012 at 1:24 PM · Report this
If initiative 502 passes I'm going to eat an entire batch of marijuana brownies on the steps of the state capital in protest.
Posted by Ken Mehlman on October 18, 2012 at 1:24 PM · Report this
50.4% of respondents (+/-3.5%) indicated they are "certain" they will vote to Approve R-74 and will not change their minds. That's a higher number than I would have expected.
Posted by happy renter on October 18, 2012 at 2:26 PM · Report this
Paul Constant 14
@7: I didn't "terrorize" anyone. I pointed out that PPP, a Democratic-leaning polling firm, only gave Obama a 5% lead in Washington. That seemed noteworthy. But I did point out that Obama had double-digit leads in virtually every other Washington state poll.

Please don't mischaracterize me as a prophet of doom. When I get apocalyptic, you'll know.
Posted by Paul Constant http:// on October 18, 2012 at 2:34 PM · Report this
@10 - I haven't received my ballot yet, so how could I get it NOW?
Posted by Tawnos on October 18, 2012 at 2:38 PM · Report this
pfffter 16
@15 Just ignore him.
Posted by pfffter on October 18, 2012 at 2:42 PM · Report this
Will in Seattle 17
I already got mine. Why u so slow, home boy?
Posted by Will in Seattle on October 18, 2012 at 2:47 PM · Report this
KCTS asked poll questions on the intiatives and the state budget deficit, but not the AG race??
Posted by data please on October 18, 2012 at 3:42 PM · Report this
Not sure why you'd post registered voter numbers, when it's likely voters that matter.

Anyway, Inslee's up 0.8% among likely voters. Game on.
Posted by nickj116 on October 18, 2012 at 6:04 PM · Report this
Obama is only at 52% in this state? If that's accurate, then Romney is a shoo-in nationally. I'd also say marijuana and charter schools are in trouble, and so is Jay Inslee.
Posted by Mister G on October 18, 2012 at 10:37 PM · Report this
LEE. 21

a batch?? that's gonna really screw with your week, man.
Posted by LEE. on October 18, 2012 at 11:15 PM · Report this
@21 Yeah, but it will be less painful than self-immolation.
Posted by Ken Mehlman on October 19, 2012 at 7:41 PM · Report this

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