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Thursday, November 1, 2012

New KCTS 9 Washington Poll: Inslee Up Narrowly, Marriage Equality Passing, Pot Legalization Passing, Ferguson Ahead in AG's Race

Posted by on Thu, Nov 1, 2012 at 10:03 AM

The final KCTS 9 Washington Poll came out this morning, and it shows Democrat Jay Inslee beating Republican Rob McKenna in the governor's race, 48.7 percent to 45.6 percent among likely voters.

It also shows marriage equality being approved 57.9 percent to 36.9 percent among likely voters. But, when the pollster, Matt Barreto of the University of Washington, adjusts for the likelihood that some poll respondents may not feel comfortable revealing their true opposition to marriage equality, the result is different.

With "social desirability bias" factored in, the Washington Poll has R-74 being approved at the polls by about 52 percent to 46 percent among likely voters.

Both of those results, it's important to remember, are potentially within the poll's margin of error. This Washington Poll surveyed 722 registered voters and 632 likely voters between October 18 and 31. Among likely voters, the margin of error was 3.9 percent. However, Barreto said it is pretty safe to call the R-74 findings outside the margin of error, because of the low probability that both the for and against findings would be off by 3.9 percent.

The poll also shows Obama clobbering Romney in Washington State (57-36 among likely voters); Cantwell clobbering Baumgartner (60-33 among likely voters); Ferguson beating Dunn in the AG's race (45-34 among likely voters, but with a large number of undecideds: 21 percent); Tim Eyman's 2/3-majority-requiring Initiative 1185 passing (52-37 among likely voters); the charter schools initiative, Initiative 1240, passing (56-38 among likely voters); and the marijuana legalization initiative, Initiative 502, passing (55-38 among likely voters).

There's a lot more in these poll results, and I'll post a deeper look at the numbers soon.

 

Comments (31) RSS

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brandon 1
Yay?
Posted by brandon on November 1, 2012 at 10:23 AM · Report this
Cato the Younger Younger 2
I'd like to point out (or ask why) the link that shows up on The Stranger's webpage for the Progressive Voter Guide is fucking split on chater schools. (not cheat sheet but some outside website)

Why isn't there a bigger case being made against charter schools on the part of the left?
Posted by Cato the Younger Younger on November 1, 2012 at 10:31 AM · Report this
3
No link to the Washington Poll so we can look at it ourselves?
Posted by TJ on November 1, 2012 at 10:34 AM · Report this
Eli Sanders 4
@3: It's not up yet. I'm at the press conference now.
Posted by Eli Sanders http://elisanders.net/ on November 1, 2012 at 10:35 AM · Report this
5
surprised the pot initiative is doing so well. Marriage equality will pass, I really don't see that "bias" being as much of an issue in washington.
Posted by sanotehu on November 1, 2012 at 10:46 AM · Report this
Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn 6
...the pollster, Matt Barreto of the University of Washington, adjusts for the likelihood that some poll respondents may not feel comfortable revealing their true opposition to marriage equality.


What the fuck? He read their minds? Just added some made up fudge factor? Assumed the same error as the old Prop 8 polls? Reminds me of the way Fox News is making magic numbers up to make things look less dire for their guy.
Posted by Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn http://youtu.be/zu-akdyxpUc on November 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM · Report this
7
Eli, do you know the D/R/I party affiliation split?
Posted by nickj116 on November 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM · Report this
Sir Vic 8
700 people who answered land lines and sat through an insulting "poll"? Yeah, I'm taking that as gospel.
Posted by Sir Vic on November 1, 2012 at 10:52 AM · Report this
Matt the Engineer 9
@2 No kidding. This will pull money from the public school system, amounts to a subsidy for the rich, and is fooling people with the whole "it's only 40 schools" thing (any school can convert to charger with a majority of teachers or parents agreeing).

It's worse than privatizing our schools - it's privatizing our schools using public money. Middle-income parents will be paying taxes to send rich kids to private schools, while their kids get worse public educations.
Posted by Matt the Engineer on November 1, 2012 at 10:54 AM · Report this
10
@6 The difference is that in this case the pollsters are trying to make the poll MORE accurate rather than less accurate like Fox does.

The published both their straight poll results and their modified poll results, so it's not like they are hiding anything.

We'll find out after the election whether they were right or not.
Posted by SLCamper on November 1, 2012 at 10:54 AM · Report this
11
@6 - it's based on the Bradley effect. If you know anything about polling and past elections, you'd know that going into the election for LA mayor, Bradley was ahead by a comfortable margin. In the end, he lost. It was because when polled, people wanted to seem not-bigoted, and would vote for an African-American. But in the privacy of the poll booth, voted for the white guy.
Posted by TJ on November 1, 2012 at 10:55 AM · Report this
Joe Szilagyi 12
@8 if this poll is tied to land lines than I bet you can add +2% to +3% in favor of anything lefty or progressive on this. Traditional land lines are still the province of older, more settled moderate and conservative voters.

So:

* Marriage up 60-33 OR up 55-43
* Inslee up 48-43
* Pot up 58-35
* Obama up 60-33
Posted by Joe Szilagyi http://twitter.com/joeszi on November 1, 2012 at 10:57 AM · Report this
13
@2 because Fuse Washington is a gutless organization led by cowards. The "education reform" movement is led by the right, yet "progressive" groups can't bring themselves to loudly denounce it? Then again, groups like Fuse have been suspiciously silent when it comes to rallying their base against McKenna.
Posted by motown philly on November 1, 2012 at 10:57 AM · Report this
14
Isn't this the way The Stranger wanted us to vote?
Posted by Beat Masterson on November 1, 2012 at 10:59 AM · Report this
15
@8, @12 - did either of you check out the link?

"calling both landlines and cell phones"
Posted by TJ on November 1, 2012 at 11:03 AM · Report this
Pope Peabrain 16
Vote!
Posted by Pope Peabrain on November 1, 2012 at 11:04 AM · Report this
Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn 17
@11

Yeah, I've heard of the Bradley Effect. Knowing it might be there is not the same as knowing how large the error is. If you could read minds you wouldn't need a poll.
Posted by Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn http://youtu.be/zu-akdyxpUc on November 1, 2012 at 11:06 AM · Report this
18
@17 - also, he uses the poll he took just before passage of R-71, and compares his results to the actual votes a few days later. He's added questions to the current poll to help elicit responses from respondents. If there is hesitation, even if they've previously said yes, he counts them as a no. In this manner, he won't over-estimate the results.
Posted by TJ on November 1, 2012 at 11:20 AM · Report this
pfffter 19
I'm encouraged by these poll results, but please don't be lulled into complacency. We need to make sure we win and by a comfortable enough margin to avoid an automatic recount. We do this by getting out the vote. WA United for Marriage still needs you to phone bank or canvass. If you were considering doing so, don't let this poll change your mind and make you feel like it's not necessary. Please go volunteer. We CAN win and successfully defend marriage equality in WA state.
Posted by pfffter on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 AM · Report this
20
@6: This pollster actually goes about it in a pretty smart way: "It asked voters if they were uncomfortable about any of the topics raised and also if they lied" on any of their answers. They then adjust some of the answers based on known correlations (initial research that this is based on I believe was about the Bradley affect/race). [Description of the methodology is here, and refers to the previous round of this poll: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/… ]
Posted by G g on November 1, 2012 at 11:23 AM · Report this
21
Ugh I knew the morons in this state would pass the 2/3rds shit and charters. Oh well, maybe they can be overruled in court
Posted by asdfffff on November 1, 2012 at 11:37 AM · Report this
Sir Vic 22
@15 Of course I didn't read the link! Eli put so much info into the post, why bother reading the original info?

Honestly, I had always thought that cell phones were off limits to pollsters and telemarketers. I guess times have changed. Thanks for the tip.
I still have to wonder about people that will sit through one of those phone calls. If I do answer that call, it's ended with a quick "fuck off".
Posted by Sir Vic on November 1, 2012 at 11:38 AM · Report this
23
A margin of erro
Posted by Joel_are on November 1, 2012 at 11:41 AM · Report this
24
I have this gross feeling that McKenna is going to win. Hopefully I'm wrong. Although Jay Inslee doesn't really impress me either.
Posted by miguel sanchez III on November 1, 2012 at 11:43 AM · Report this
25
Charter schools are not a left/right issue, which is why you don't see a clear answer.

When wealthy (primarily white) people have a choice about where to send their kids to school and others who can't afford private school or the ability to live wherever they want cannot, that's an equality issue.
Posted by charterschoolsarenotthedevil on November 1, 2012 at 12:12 PM · Report this
26
@22 - I admit to sitting thru a few this season. Other incoming calls sometimes go to voicemail. It entirely depends on how I'm feeling when the phone rings.
Posted by TJ on November 1, 2012 at 12:20 PM · Report this
Will in Seattle 27
@15 @22 a lot of younger voters in the 18-29 age range don't answer blocked calls.

Ever.

The ones who too tend to be more gullible and more likely to vote for Republicants.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on November 1, 2012 at 12:35 PM · Report this
Will in Seattle 28
@21 probably this year.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on November 1, 2012 at 12:37 PM · Report this
29
Heh. Ref 74 is polling almost exactly the same as Obama.
Posted by madcap on November 1, 2012 at 9:35 PM · Report this
30
The days when pollsters made no adjustments for cell phone response rates are behind us.

Their weightings still aren't perfect, but they know it, and increase margins of error accordingly.

It's a little weird to see politics-blog-commenters assume that people who earn a living doing polls have never heard of cellphone sampling issues.
Posted by robotslave on November 2, 2012 at 12:40 AM · Report this
31
Shame about 1240. At least if 502 passes the state will at least take in SOME money rather than pissing it all away on rich kids.
Posted by Concerned Voter on November 6, 2012 at 3:41 PM · Report this

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