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News & ArtsSaturday, November 3, 2012
2012 Nate Silver: "Obama led in 19 battleground state polls today. Romney led in one."
Posted by Charles Mudede on Sat, Nov 3, 2012 at 10:04 AM
538:
Although the fact that Mr. Obama held the lead in so many polls is partly coincidental — there weren’t any polls of North Carolina on Friday, for instance, which is Mr. Romney’s strongest battleground state — they nevertheless represent powerful evidence against the idea that the race is a “tossup.” A tossup race isn’t likely to produce 19 leads for one candidate and one for the other — any more than a fair coin is likely to come up heads 19 times and tails just once in 20 tosses. (The probability of a fair coin doing so is about 1 chance in 50,000.)As I have stated before, the papers want a close race because close races sell papers. True, the Obama/Romney race is close, but it may not be close enough for the kind of nail-biting anxiety that triggers an explosion of clicks on news websites. Also, do not be surprised if on the day of the election, we learn the race was never even close. There is now even talk about how the race was close up until Sandy. Sandy gave Obama the advantage. Up to that point, there was real Mitt/Romentum. If not for Sandy, that first debate (Romney's only moment in the sun during the entire race) would have handed him Obama's head on a plate. Expect this narrative, which has already emerged with Rove, to expand and harden into a fact. Indeed, as Goldy pointed out, Rove is more and more finding himself in need of a good explanation for why he failed. His right-wing billionaires will lose faith in him if he doesn't have a good excuse, and none is better than nature itself, the great unknown, the mysterious ways of Sandy. She hit Romney as hard as she hit the American coast.
1
It just hasn't been long enough for Rove's billionaires to come back. We still remember the 2000s.
That, and the generational and demographic transitions continue.
It is kind of amazing how many of the horse race stories are clear and utter nonsense--CNN calling the job report this week good news for both candidates, for example--though. They've progressed from twisting the truth to outright lies to keep this narrative going...
That, and the generational and demographic transitions continue.
It is kind of amazing how many of the horse race stories are clear and utter nonsense--CNN calling the job report this week good news for both candidates, for example--though. They've progressed from twisting the truth to outright lies to keep this narrative going...
3
@2 Exactly! The hurricane was an act of GOD, therefor, Obama's winning is GOD's will, ergo, GOD hates Republicans!
Spread it around.
Spread it around.
4
Wouldn't it be nice if the idea that Sandy gave Obama the win triggers the thicknecks of this country to confront climate change?
5
Sandy will be a key talking point of the losing presidential campaign on every Sunday morning political talk show on Nov. 11.
If Obama loses the popular vote, Democrats will blame it at least partly on Sandy impacting voter turnout in reliably blue New Jersey and metro New York.
If Obama wins - electoral, popular, or both - Republicans will say it's because the liberal media fawned all over Obama doing 'the bare minimum you'd expect of the President after a natural disaster' (which is already a lead talking point on Fox - never mind that Bush did even less after Katrina).
If Obama loses the popular vote, Democrats will blame it at least partly on Sandy impacting voter turnout in reliably blue New Jersey and metro New York.
If Obama wins - electoral, popular, or both - Republicans will say it's because the liberal media fawned all over Obama doing 'the bare minimum you'd expect of the President after a natural disaster' (which is already a lead talking point on Fox - never mind that Bush did even less after Katrina).
6
Ok, Silver is an excellent numbers guy --- no argument there, but the salient question is:
who owns the top three (and I'd appreciate the full answer on the top five) voting machine companies?
Simple question --- awaiting the response from any wise and knowing ones ......
who owns the top three (and I'd appreciate the full answer on the top five) voting machine companies?
Simple question --- awaiting the response from any wise and knowing ones ......
7
The Republican narrative will be the same as it was in 2008: "Our candidate who was not a true conservative. We need to nominate true conservatives. Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan."
8
@7 They'll double-down on one thing for sure: Prevent leadership from passing anything. Nothing will be more inportant to them. Not jobs, or defecit, or their moral soldiering.
It was a couple of years ago when I heard a blip of reason from Lindsay Graham. He noted that the minority party - his party - should influence the agenda and appointments of the majority and president but, in the end, the majority party's agenda should not be wholly blocked. Afterall, they are, in fact, representatives of the majority (aprox) of Americans.
It was a couple of years ago when I heard a blip of reason from Lindsay Graham. He noted that the minority party - his party - should influence the agenda and appointments of the majority and president but, in the end, the majority party's agenda should not be wholly blocked. Afterall, they are, in fact, representatives of the majority (aprox) of Americans.
9
I've said Sandy would be described as Obama's defining moment in the campaign. But really, Rmoney didn't have a chance. He's too unctuous, too self-absorbed.
10
I tried to imagine how President Romney would have handled Sandy. He'd have had that lights-on-nobody-home expression on his face the whole time, wouldn't have talked to the media and wouldn't have done anything himself. He has people to do "stuff" for him. He'd have phoned Christie, not to say, "What can we do to help?" but to say, "I do have your vote, right?"
11
Remember how 2008 was "too close to call" the last few weeks of the election? I was watching MSNBC and anyone with half a brain knew Obama had won it by around 5:30pm PST. But the pundits still tried to make up "imaginary" math of how McCain could still win. You know, if he could pick up California...seriously that was said.
It's the race between "Back Alley Abortion McKenna" and Pro-Privacy Inslee that I am more concerned with.
It's the race between "Back Alley Abortion McKenna" and Pro-Privacy Inslee that I am more concerned with.
12
Just to be clear, the odds of 1 tails in 20 tosses is not 1 in 50,000, it is 1 in 1,048,576. Big odds got bigger!
13
Shorter Tea-Bagging Wing-Nuts: "God sent Hurricane Sandy to punish 'Murka for teh Gays & Obama, which is why, uh...which is why...er - God let teh Gays & Obama win to punish 'Murka for teh Gays & Obama!"
14
Here, this is fun. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/…
It seems to be working with Nate Silver's numbers, calling anything he gives less than 80% odds for either candidate "undecided". I plan to have this open election night, following along.
It seems to be working with Nate Silver's numbers, calling anything he gives less than 80% odds for either candidate "undecided". I plan to have this open election night, following along.
15
@20: no, the probability is 1/52428.8. You're forgetting there are 20 different positions where the 'tails' outcome could occur in the sequence of 20 tosses.
((0.5^20)*20) = 0.00001907, which is 1/52428.8
((0.5^20)*20) = 0.00001907, which is 1/52428.8
17
Thanks for that link, MacCroc.
(For anybody playing with that page who's a little slow like me, if you wanna take any particular battleground state back to "undecided" [as opposed to flipping it to the other party], just click again on the party you selected the first time. Don't have to refresh.)
(For anybody playing with that page who's a little slow like me, if you wanna take any particular battleground state back to "undecided" [as opposed to flipping it to the other party], just click again on the party you selected the first time. Don't have to refresh.)
18
"Sell more papers"? What few newspapers are left are either overwhelmingly subscription sales or the run is determined by advertising (where do you work Chuck?). I assume all few rack sales you think are happening are also helped by scamps in newsboy caps yelling "Extra, extra. Hey Mister!"
20
Interesting that you should mention it. Until the polls started breaking for Obama on Tuesday, I would make the rounds of all the usual news websites, plus a couple extras, nervously trying to reassure myself that Obama wasn't running out of steam. Now, I don't click around nearly as much. And, it's true, I always felt that the networks and Politico were really stretching themselves to play up Romney and play down Obama. I've lost so much respect for CNN this past year. (Remember how they blew the ACA Supreme Court ruling?) Fox, for its part, has become a grotesque joke even compared to what they were. They've abandoned all pretensions of neutrality like they don't even care anymore.
21
I figured the writings on the wall when NPR pretty much only reports on Romney. I'm assuming they don't want to get into some liberal bias bullshit that the right will whine about for the next several weeks after the election.
I can only hope it's a crushing defeat and the GOP has to crawl back to the center, ideally let the Tea Party become their own goofy party.
I can only hope it's a crushing defeat and the GOP has to crawl back to the center, ideally let the Tea Party become their own goofy party.
23
I'm still waiting for all the delirious Obamamentum!!! headlines, analogous to the Mitt-mentum blah-blah we were subjected to for weeks.
24
@12: I get probability of 0.00001907, or 1 in 52,429.
Easiest explanaition: Wiki "binomial distribution" and find the probability mass function (pmf). n is 20. k is 19. p is 0.5.
Easiest explanaition: Wiki "binomial distribution" and find the probability mass function (pmf). n is 20. k is 19. p is 0.5.
25
"Also, do not be surprised if on the day of the election, we learn the race was never even close."
I agree with that. Blacks and Browns are coming out in force to early vote for President Obama, so that zaps the whole "enthusiasm gap" argument.
Not sure if Romney has to care about his billionaire supporters if he loses the election. Why would he? He will never run for anything again. In fact, he'll go on to live a very relaxed life post-November 6th. He only wanted to win to lower his taxes and for the hell of it. That's why he flips and flops so rapidly and has no core principles.
Looking forward to a good night on November 6th.
I agree with that. Blacks and Browns are coming out in force to early vote for President Obama, so that zaps the whole "enthusiasm gap" argument.
Not sure if Romney has to care about his billionaire supporters if he loses the election. Why would he? He will never run for anything again. In fact, he'll go on to live a very relaxed life post-November 6th. He only wanted to win to lower his taxes and for the hell of it. That's why he flips and flops so rapidly and has no core principles.
Looking forward to a good night on November 6th.
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