...Or did Sandy fill Obama's sails. Silver thinks it has more to do with the economy than the storm. But even I can't help wondering if this natural disaster has had a hard and almost immediate impact on American politics. The polls this weekend, unlike those last weekend, were clearly dominated by Obama. And, according to 538's math, Obama's chance of winning is back to where it was before Denver. What might voters have seen in Sandy that made such a strong impression? I think it was Bush. The storm returned Bush to the center of the race. Best of all, that famous horse judge could not resist opening his mouth and drawing the media's attention...
"Brown, you may recall, had a lot of experience as a horse judge and no experience managing emergencies...
Sadly, you would know nothing about Obama's current domination of the polls if you visit CNN or Politico. They are still calling it a tie, very close, a tossup.
Margin of error: Why neither candidate has broken through
This, of course, is not information; this is entertainment.
Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the leader in the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.