(This post has been updated to change the live-Slog start time.)

...and here is my one rock-solid Oscar prediction: Everybody I want to win will lose, except maybe Daniel Day-Lewis. Here are things I cannot predict about the Oscars:

Will host Seth MacFarlane be the douchiest Oscar host ever, or will James Franco hold onto the title for one more year?

Will Anne Hathaway's feigned shock at winning an Academy Award be even remotely believable?

Will the James Bond tribute involve too much or just enough modern dance?

Will every single male star in attendance be wearing a Tom Ford tuxedo, or will Alan Arkin buck fashion trends by digging up an old Armani?

Will Ben Affleck take his revenge on this year's Best Director winner onstage, or after the show?

Will Snow White and the Huntsman actually win one of the two Academy Awards for which it's been nominated?

Dan Savage, David Schmader, Christopher Frizzelle, Megan Seling, Dominic Holden, Goldy, and I will be discovering the answers to all those questions and more in a live-Slog right in this here blog-space today, starting at 4:30 pm Seattle time. Bring snacks, booze, and a desire to mock beautiful people. We'll take care of the rest.

(And if you're looking for a place to watch the Oscars, Central Cinema's annual Oscar party is unfortunately sold out, but The Spectator in Queen Anne is giving out prizes at their viewing party.)