King County Elections projects that it will release the tabulation of about 230,000 ballots at 8:15 p.m. tonight. That's about 19 percent of registered voters, and about 58 percent of the projected final countywide turnout of 33 percent.
Keep those numbers in mind when looking at tonight's results. That's a big enough statistical sample to reliably determine the top-two in most races. But late ballots do sometimes trend differently than early ballots, so tonight's results might well leave the second spot too close to call in the mayor's race (and conceivably, the contest between Kshama Sawant and Brian Carver to take on Richard Conlin in November).
My guess is that Ed Murray and Mike McGinn make it through the primary tonight, but if things go particularly poorly for the mayor, it will more likely be a long and painful week than quick and merciful death. But that's just an informed guess.