A heads-up to all you Slogheads out there: the Seattle Mariners, whose opening day is April 6, could be very good this year. Not just āby the standard of all the post/pre-Griffey-Mariners-teams-save-for-that-one-Brett-Boone-steroid-fueled-year good.ā Actual professional baseball good. Las Vegas has the Mās as the seventh most likely team to win the World Series. Statistical profiles of the team (with fun names like Steamer and Nate Silverās PECOTA) all agree, either giving the Mās a Wild Card berth or the AL West outright.
The Mariners have managed to have a number of superstars, even through the fallow years of the past decade. What makes this team different is the lack of egregious holes. And while yes, everything could go wrong, I donāt want to think about that today. Itās February, Iām in upstate New York where the thermometer currently reads āballs cold,ā and I want to think about what happens with the Mariners if everything goes right.
Everything could go right. And I canāt believe Iām going to type this, but thereās a version of this Mariners season that ends with a World Series win. This isnāt like the Seahawks who were favorites on their way to a second consecutive Super Bowl berth (where something happened, but I canāt remember what). But the Mariners are a legitimate threat to make the post-season for the first time since 2001, and have the pitching to win playoff series if they make it.
So what would it take for this team to overachieve? Aside from a favorable run of health and more strong performances from the teamās big guns (Robinson Cano, Felix Hernandez, and worldās smallest big gun Kyle Seager)? A few factors could cause the Mariners to overachieve their way to a truly great season. Iām gonna go through them all before the season starts, so letās start in the infield:
A Big Year from Jesus Montero
Last year, former top-catching-prospect-turned-punchline-first-baseman Jesus Montero came into camp overweight, saying that he spent the entire offseason eating. Seriously. His first interview at last yearās Spring Training involved the words, āall I did was eat.ā
This year?
Grandes Ligas ā¢ JesĆŗs Montero estĆ” en la mejor forma de su carrera http://t.co/OL8QyRX8Zo pic.twitter.com/3n3EwmY120
ā Planeta BĆ©isbol (@PlanetaBeisbol) February 22, 2015
Damn. Jesus Montero looks good. Real good. Baseball players are often reported to be in āthe best shape of his life,ā but Jesus Montero is visibly in the best shape of his life. Apparently he took off 45 pounds this offseason. Last year he got in a fistfight when our own scout bought him an ice cream sandwich mid-game to mock his weight. This year? Jesus Montero would only eat that ice cream sandwich if it were a Skinny Cow ice cream sandwich. And who would blame him? Those things are great.
If Jesus Montero were to suddenly live up to his prospect status from a few years ago (when he was considered amongst the best power prospects in baseball) the Mariners would just as suddenly project as the best team in the American League and the third best team in baseball. First base is not the Mariners strongest position. Currently they have Logan Morrison slated to play the majority of the year there, with Rickie Weeks and Montero waiting behind him. Morrison played well down the stretch last year, but expecting him to stay healthy for a full season and put up even league average numbers is a tall ask. Weeks has never been a first baseman and is over a year removed from being a good player at any position. He was a nice bargain pickup, but his upside is not very high. The longterm organizational future at the position is prospect D.J. Peterson, and heās reportedly a year away from being able to make an impact.
But Montero? Montero is all upside. Thereās a version of this year where he never plays in the Majors. But thereās also a version where he takes over the position in May and hits 35 dingers. Thatās the version I want to have happen, and looking at Jesus Montero you can maybe, just maybe, see it happening. Again, dude looks good.
A Breakout Year from a Shortstop
Last year around this time I could not have been more excited about Mariners shortstop Brad Miller. Having put together a good half-season, he was projected for great things. And like a run of homegrown middle infielders before him, things quickly went to shit. Seriously, look at this list:
ā¢ Mike Morse
ā¢ Yuniesky Betancourt
ā¢ Jose Lopez
ā¢ Dustin Ackley
ā¢ Nick Franklin
ā¢ Brad Miller
What the hell with this array of weirdly underwhelming talent? Year to year all of these guys had their moments and then followed those moments up with other longer moments that were so mind-blowingly awful as to ruin the section in my brain dedicated to remembering those earlier good moments. While Ackley looks to have (finally) relearned how to hit and established himself as a decent corner outfielder, the rest are all out of Seattle.
Well, save for Miller, and Chris Taylor who replaced Miller last year and had himselfā¦ half a good season in the middle infield. Now if either Miller or Taylor steps up, and I for one think that could happen, the Mariners infield would be in great shape, and the projections that have the Mariners being very good would have undersold a great team.
And letās live in this world where Montero hits dingers, Taylor or Miller is a league average shortstop, Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano continue to exist, and Mike Zunino mans home plate with his sick pitch-framing skills and ability to hit dingers between ugly strikeouts? Weāre now living in a world where the Mariners have the best infield in baseball.
I like this hypothetical world a lot.
Part Two of this postālater this weekāwill cover pitching and outfield.