The Mariners should be a good baseball team this year. All signs point to good, with some signs pointing to very good, and some other signs pointing north because their logo is a compass. This week, though, we’re envisioning what could happen to make this a great baseball team. We already looked at a couple spots in the infield where the team could overachieve, so now let’s turn our attention to the pitching staff and outfield.
The Kids All Pitch All Year
As of three years ago, the Mariners had three massive, elite, big-time pitching prospects: James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, and Danny Hultzen. In those the intervening years, all three of them have spent time injured and inconsistent. Hultzen’s injury was the worst: a shoulder surgery that left him sidelined for 18 months. While the other two missed time, Paxton managed a tantalizingly good half-season of baseball last year, and Walker has flashed good stuff in his call-ups. But none of these guys has put together a full season of big-league ball.
This year, though… maybe.
Starting with the best news, I expect Paxton to contribute in a big way this year. He’s locked into the number-three spot in the rotation, he’s a hard-throwing left hander with a track record of striking guys out and limiting home runs. His fastball is a huge weapon, and his curveball is good enough to get guys out as a complementary offering. His changeup is fine, and were it to develop into a third great pitch, he would be an All-Star-caliber pitcher for as long as he’s able to stay healthy. Even if that pitch doesn’t develop, he’s still a great third-best starting pitcher to have.
BUT! Paxton is already dealing with a stupid injury during this spring training after falling down during agility drills. He’ll probably be fine, and is reportedly on pace to start throwing soon… but he’s a pitcher, so maybe not! Who knows? Rooting for young pitchers sucks so much. Once you push past the tedium of bad baseball games, the fragility of young pitchers is the second-biggest hurdle to overcome as a new baseball fan. (But you do it because sometimes those young pitchers become Felix Hernandez or Randy Johnson, and that’s just the best.) All that said, Paxton being good is part of the Mariners being good, and he could potentially be great. And if he’s great? That’s a big part of the Mariners outpacing their projections.
Of the trio, Hultzen is the biggest question mark. After surgery that left him feeling like he “has a new arm,” the former second overall draft pick faces a long road back to the majors. A new arm is both a good thing and a bad thing for a pitcher to have: good because the old one was broken, but bad because he’s gotta figure out how to use this one. Hultzen’s reputation coming out of school was as a deeply intelligent player; if anyone is going to figure out how to use the tools he has as effectively as possible, it would be Hultzen.
Can we expect to see Hultzen start even 15 big-league games this year? No. But could he be an interesting option late in the season, either out of the bullpen or as a replacement in the wake of whatever injuries do befall this team? That’s the dream.
Walker is where the most upside lives. He is a 22-year-old strikeout machine who hasn’t given up a lot of runs in his short stints in the Majors. That said, he has dealt with shoulder injuries, which are terrifying, and also has a propensity for walking batters. Last year, he walked 4.3 per nine innings, whereas 3.3 is average. An extra walk a game is a big deal. The good news is that his career average in the minors was 3.5, suggesting he can improve his control.
I get that looking at possible walk rates for the Mariners’ fifth starter might seem a little tedious, but it answers the question, can this guy be good? And the answer with Walker is: yes, very. If he were to stay a big-time strikeout pitcher and improve his control with age, the sky is the limit for Walker. And with Felix, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Paxton, all excellent options in the rotation, a fourth great starter would make the Mariners a great team. Walker could be that guy.
A Big Year from Center Field
The Mariners have historically had great center fielders. Ken Griffey Jr.’s tenure was the greatest, but since Griffey patrolled center, we’ve had the criminally underrated Mike Cameron, a few cameos from the great Ichiro, and Franklin Gutierrez, who had one of the great defensive seasons of all time at the position in 2009. Since then, however, Gutierrez has suffered from a ludicrous run of maladies, and the position has been fallow.
Last year, Stefan Romero, Abe Almonte, Endy Chavez, and James Jones were Mariners outfield regulars. That’s a bad list of professional baseball players. The Mariners responded by acquiring Austin Jackson at the trade deadline last year in exchange for reserve infielder Nick Franklin. Jackson was an instant upgrade over everyone the team had.
He also quietly kind of sucked.
Jackson hit for no power, his contact was inconsistent. He was still the best center fielder that the Mariners had, but that speaks far more to the Mariners' other options than what Jackson accomplished.
The good news is that Jackson is a good player, and he’s likely to be better this year than he was down the stretch last year. He was good recently enough as to suggest that his underlying skills have not eroded. Also, the team has identified a pattern of fatigue that has led to him underperforming late in seasons (a phenomenon that Lookout Landing has found was not unique to his time with the Mariners) and is planning on resting him so he does not fail again come September.
The other possibility is that Franklin Gutierrez himself is healthy and can step in. I mean, he’s at spring training. And anything is possible!
You’re right, that is too optimistic even for a best-case breakdown of the Mariners' chances this year.
So Let’s Total This Scenario Up
A great year from the Mariners is one that involves no injuries to the superstars, a breakout performance from Jesus Montero and either Brad Miller or Chris Taylor, a healthy season from James Paxton, a big step forward from Taijuan Walker, a big-league cameo from Danny Hultzen, and a bounce-back year from Austin Jackson. That’s actually not crazy. That could happen. That’s a World Series-caliber team.
Or, more likely, a few of these things could happen, the Mariners squeak into the play-offs, and then Felix, Paxton, and Iwakuma could take over a couple of play-off series. That very good version of the Mariners is also in the World Series. And if you don’t think it’s possible, there’s an easy argument to be made that the Mariners were better than both of the World Series participants last year, and they’ve done nothing but get better this off-season.
