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Republicans will probably harp on the phone call to his daughter bit. If were lucky, he'll do a parallel between 30 rock and him running for office. Jack runs for Republican office, while Alec runs for Democratic office.
Baldwin went on a rampage on Conan a decade ago, pretty much saying that he wanted to see several key Republicans dead.
It's taken as common wisdom that he said he would leave the country if Bush won the 2000 election. He didn't actually say that, but since when does the truth matter in politics?
Baldwin has long been lumped in with the Hollyweird Left. I honestly have no idea what his actual political positions are, but that also doesn't matter. His opponent will paint him as a liberal loony who's out of touch with "real" America, and he will lose the election in a swing district.
You can't make decisions based on what Republicans will say about you because they will say anything, no matter how false, to get what they want.
Martin Luther King never raged and ranted about killing people on national television.
You can make decisions about who is electable. And Alec Baldwin is not electable, not in any district that's remotely competitive.
Al Franken had less baggage, and he barely beat a smarmy brown-noser too cowardly to either repudiate Bush or stick with him.