Last night's initial drop of ballot results suggested trouble for King County Council member Jane Hague. Of the 24,517 ballots counted in District 6, the 17-year incumbent received only 39.3 percent of the vote, with Democratic challengers Richard Mitchell and John Creighton trailing by 27.9 percent and 25.2 percent respectively. But this afternoon's ballot drop looks even worse for Hague.

Of the 4,694 ballots counted in the district today, Hague only tallied 36.2 percent of the vote, with Mitchell trailing slightly at 34.9 percent. Creighton's share of this second drop was only 22.1 percent. These are mostly ballots that arrived yesterday, meaning that late voters appear to have trended away from Hague and Creighton, and toward political newcomer Mitchell. This is not a place an incumbent wants to be.

Of course, the second drop is a relatively small sample, and I'm working with only two data points, but if I were Hague, I'd be awfully damn nervous about keeping her job.