Can Wiggins Win? The View from His Westin Suite, Plus Some More Math

Comments

1
We're not going to know for sure for several days. But if you use the trajectory of late votes on R-71 from last year's election, you know that things can swing wildly at the end.

The late attention to Sanders' antics and attitudes will surely make the late votes for concentrated for Wiggins.

Also consider, too, that there is likely to be a lesser "non-vote" for the judicial position in the late ballots.

Wiggins will probably not eek out the victory, but it's plausible.
2
Possible, but not very likely. You are grasping at straws here.
3
Optimism!
4
Your calculations assume that every single person who submitted a ballot voted in this race, and that one of each of the two candidates was selected by each voter, with no accounting for write-ins, signature failures, or just plain blank entries as potential variables.

In a race this close, that's being a bit optimistic.
5
@4: True, though you could argue that the dynamic you're describing affects both candidates' totals equally. (And, if anything, helps Wiggins because his late voters would likely be more motivated.)
6
I've been crunching the numbers all morning, and assuming that the SecState is correct in all of his estimates, and assuming that the margins remain the same, Sanders probably wins in the 3-6k range.

HOWEVER, I do believe that the late voters in King, Snohomish and Kitsap counties, where you have a lot of people who regularly read the Times, will definitely break more in Wiggins direction. And from what I heard last night - three hour long lines to vote in person, and people taking ballots down to Tukwila - I agree that King County will have more votes than expected by Reed.

No matter what, this will be close.
7
@6: What happens if you factor this into your calculations?
8
Fuck, you made me actually do a lot of work.

SO, based on the SecState numbers for estimated ballots left, and assuming they all break the same way as those already counted, Sanders wins51.28-48.72, and my total number is completely off, so shut it.

Now, let's say the total number of ballots that are received, when all is said and done, in King County is 809,000 (the ballots already received plus those received today plus drop boxes), valid ballots equal 796,865 (1.5% off of 809k for the purposes of bad signatures), and that 78% of those actually vote in this race (current percentage), that means in this race, of the 422,924 valid ballots, 329,881 will have marked this race. Putting that number into my model, the margin goes to 50.62-49.38 Sanders, with a vote difference of 21,283.00

However, these damned recentish events. Let's say that gives Wiggins a point pickup in late voters in Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston and Kitsap Counties, and a few points in King County, there is a slight chance he can get over 50%, win by about 3k, force a recount, and hopefully keep the win.

I'm waiting for tonight's drop before having too much optimism, but I'm hoping.
9
I'd wait for Friday's drop, actually.
10
So, to update my previous comments -

Continuing to use my model, no late break would have Sanders winning 50.84-49.16.

However, the smaller counties that have reported actually have Wiggins gaining, percentage wise, against Sanders, and the 37k KC drop that just happened didn't put him up by much, but he took over 60% of the drop, so using the model, I would say the margin now would be either a 600+/- Sanders win, or a 4000+/- Wiggins win. So, yeah. He's still in it.
11
I'm not sure if anyone is even reading this anymore (does it ping somewhere if they are?), but based on all the numbers that I'm keeping track of (EVERY county), Wiggins has a much better chance of winning than I originally thought.

With today's King County drop, he has increased his lead in late votes to 61%. Assuming that there are only 270k left in King County, as the SecState says, he may be able to win, and be out of recount range.

Almost every other county has shown a decrease in Sanders support, by 2 points in Pierce County, by 1 point in Snohomish, by 1.5 in Kitsap, and by 5 points in King. By 1 point in Spokane, even.

This is going to be close, nonetheless.
12
I voted for Sanders...so I am sorry to say that my statistical model has officially "turned" to a Wiggins victory.
13
Wiggins by at least 6,000
14
"Don't Let Wiggins Steal This Election"