Wiggins Closing In on Sanders After King County's Latest Ballot Drop

Comments

1
One more vote for Wiggins will be coming in very late. I got flagged for an incorrect signature (for the second time in four elections, you stupid fucks), so mine won't be added to the pile for a while yet.

If he wins by one vote, can I get carte blanche to commit whatever crimes I want throughout the state and not get busted?
2
I am NOT obsessive!!!!

However, I do need to correct your numbers -

Of the ballots that have come in after election day, Wiggins is leading in King County with about 61% of the vote. That, combined with Sanders losing ground in all but three counties in the rest of the state...well, I'm optimistic.
3
Wiggins is now down by 9,806. If we were to count everything at the same % wiggins would be down by 2,129.303. I will note that almost every county that has gone in favor of Sanders except Pierce, Stevens and Ferry (how fitting) shrunk his margin of winning, while every county currently for Wiggins has gone UP except for San Juan.

King now has 195,000 ballots left to count reporting on the SOC website with Wiggins winning the county with 57.76%. But the numbers do not add up. If you see how many ballots have been counted 422,521 and subtract the total received to date according to the King County website of 747,090 there is still 324,669 votes to be counted! WHICH would push Wiggins lead to well over 17K.

BTW I could be wrong but 243,991 divided by 422,421 is actually .577701... King County needs to do math a little better!

P.S. I am more than happy to admit I am wrong on anything I just said in case i am missing something I may not see.
4
Strike my King county ballot assumption :) they are reporting to have counted 569,743 on SOS. SO I am wrong there :). See told you I am whiling to admit it!

But if 569,743 have been counted but only 422,421 voted on the race that means there is a big drop off!
5
@J-in-Tacoma -

While I can't entirely explain the discrepancy between the State and the County on ballots on hand, I can for the rest - under-votes. Thus far, only about 78% of ballots actually have a vote marked in this race.

I'll comment again after the last numbers of the day come in, but the model I use is based on the percentage of the vote post November 2 thus far to each candidate, and the estimated remaining ballots. I'm doing it county by county because I have no life, and am a total geek for numbers. :-)
6
Just legally change your name to Fnarf, Fnarf, and no more messed-up ballot signatures or torn-up checks (that's gotta get expensive). It must be hard leading this double life :D
7
@michaelp,

I am geek too that and I am emotional tied to the Supreme court as a former Campaign Manger for one of the races. Charlie killing Sanders here is of the upmost priority for me!

I am curious as to how many oversea/army ballots are out there and how they traditionally break!
8
Snohomish County ain't helping Wiggins.
9
@ J-in-Tacoma and michaelp:

The Secretary of State's "on hand" number is wrong, at least for King County. We were told today by King County Elections that they have 204,757 on hand (not 195,000). For your calculations...

Also: This suggests to me that the Secretary of State's "on hand" numbers for other counties may be a little off too.
10
@J -

Believe you me, I have allowed myself to be invested in this race more than typical, and am loving every minute of it.

At this point, I still say with confidence that it is more probable than not that Wiggins wins by about .7%, and around 14k votes, outside of the recount margin. Tuesday is when I think Wiggins and Sanders switch positions, with Wiggins on top, and Sanders bottom.
11
Now, I'm going to try to explain what my model looks like, so most of you may want to skip this, because I don't make a lot of sense.

What I did was relatively simple using Excel. I took Election Night numbers, subtracted them from returns post election-night, and got the percentage that is going to each candidate from late votes.

The easiest example - Wiggins was up in King with 56% on election night, but the votes counted on Wed, Thurs and Friday had him up with about 61%, a five point difference of his capture among the late voters.

This has been true in all but three counties across the state, with Wiggins gaining anywhere from .5-5% amongst late voters compared to election night (early voters). The three that reverse that trend did not show a significant increase in Sanders numbers, and only one was a county with significant voter population (Clark County is apparently full of homophobes and racists and nazi sympathizers...and Jim Moeller).

So, using the SecState's estimates of ballots left to be counted (which makes King County especially conservative), then reducing that by 1.5% (MOE, bad signatures, and more conservativeism), and then only including 78% of those ballots (of the ballots counted thus far, only 78% of voters even bothered in this race), then multiplying that by the percentage that each candidate gets amongst the late voters, I feel I get a much better prediction of the final result than just using the current overall percentage multiplied by ballots on hand. Especially considering how the late votes in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Spokane, Thurston, Kitsap and Skagit Counties are breaking.

In the end, this model should make Richard Sanders worry, and, if he wanted to knock out a Supreme, Eli Sanders proud. At this point, I estimate Wiggins with a 14k lead when all is said and done, and that he takes the lead on Tuesday.

Now, if you read all of that, and want to check my math - go for it. Otherwise, just tell me that I'm awesome, and buy me a fucking drink at SlogHappy if I ever go to one.
12
@michaelp

Your enthusiasm is great! i hope your this enchanted when the Gov goes and appoints someone to replace Alexander. The rumor I heard last night was this person in mind is not so progressive and could almost be just as bad as Alexander himself. SAD because she is a lame duck and can nearly do anything she wants as her political career is near dead on arrival the day she leaves office. Her only hope is a presidential appointment (likely)

Finally your projection is pretty darn close to mine. I do know from a close source that the Wiggins camp is also tracking the ballots with much vigor as we are if not more and rightfully so.

When Wiggins pulls this out I am going to go to his swearing in!
13
@J - Yeah, I've heard the same thing regarding their camp, and even my conservative friends agree (begrudgingly) with my calculation. It pleases me.

It will be interesting to see who she picks. My money's on Spearman - add some diversity to the Court - and he isn't that bad.

I will be glad when Alexander is gone. During recent arguments I was watching on the teevee, he compared child abuse to smoking. I about shit my pants.
14
Crap, I just realized that one of the models that I was doing I was reading something wrong.

Charlie Wiggins Wins
15
Wiggins = 1029985.577 Sanders = 1028784.393 a win by: 1201.1834
16
@J -

I have a range of 4k-14k. How do you do your calculation?
17
Taking current votes on hand for each county and breaking those votes by the current winning % for the candidate. I then add up those totals to the current totals to date. Its more conservative as I am not breaking whats left with the trend but overall winning %

Although I am also not counting in the % of lost votes! But since King’s late votes are breaking at a much higher % than the overall winning % it should balance out.

Nerd I am :)
18
Huh...my conservative model is basically the same, and it gives Wiggins a 3900 vote win. Of course, I'm trusting Excel with all of my calculations, and Microsoft could be wrong, I suppose.

Needless to say, I'll see you at the swearing in!
19
Wiggins 1033088.177 Sanders - 1028784.393 4303.7834

You had me second guess and for all the right reasons! Here is my totals. I had one county (thurston) not totally correctly.

e-mail me and I will share you my excel. We can be nerds together! just_leigh17@hotmail.com
20
*(8^)-|*---\8<===/

Nerdgasm!
21
@20, no shit, I'm in befuddled bystander heaven.
22
He'll win with 3,478 to spare if the county percentages reported today hold steady and if the estimates of uncounted ballots are correct. A mighty thin margin, but it is possible...
23
@Lurleen -

That's the most conservative area. The key is to base the rest of the vote on the percentages of the votes that have come in post election day. this will put Wiggins ahead by 13-18k
24
What was Wiggins' basis for supporting the majority ruling in Andersen? Was it a lack of precedent? 'cuz, well...
25
@24 -

As I have read it, he indicated he probably would have joined with the Madsen decision, not the Johnson decision, and there are stark differences between the two.

The Madsen decision relies on precedent that states that the Courts must grant "extreme deference" to the legislature, and one of the exceptions has to do with whether a group is a "suspect class". In the Madsen decision, the Court found that the gays had not proven themselves to be a suspect class, and while the legislature was stupid by drafting DOMA, and that the legislature should fix the problem, because of previous precedent, it was improper for the Court to get involved.

Personally, I believe this helped get some of the more moderate Democrats who supported Domestic Partnerships on board, but a lot of people disagree with me on that.

Now, since the Vaughn Walker decision, I read that Wiggins said that perhaps it is time to revisit the question in Washington, especially if the 9th Circuit upholds the decision - a part of that decision includes declaring gays as a suspect class (passing prop 8 took the right to marry from a specific group of people), which would, if applied to Washington (ie: 9th circuit) allow the Court to overturn DOMA, based on the Madsen decision.

Does that make sense?
26
I hate math. I love Wiggins.
27
@Baconcat

Sanders is much deeper hater on the gays. I ran the Rumbaugh race and during a forum between Sanders and Wiggins they talked about Anderson V King County. While Charlie didn't say he would vote for it he did say times have changed and it should be looked into again (as @michaelp) said. But I say this because of what Sanders said minutes later. We were at the Horizon house forum (an amazing community of senior citizens on 9th & University). Sanders went on talking about Texas v Lawrence where SCOTUS ruled the Texas law banning sodomy unconstitutional. Sanders says, and I quote “Lawrence v Texas legalized sex in the hole”.... My 19 year old intern said "what the fuck did he just say?". I was shocked and as the two youngest people int he room we were nearly on the floor in laughter as no one else caught it. This is one of many exhibits of his hatred and lack of understanding of the times.

My point is this: Mr. Wiggins does not express hate and I have seen him speak at dozens of forums pre primary and I think he can be put into a majority consensus in favor of Gay Marriage if it ever got to the courts.

Mind you it is my personal belief that Gay Marriage in Washington will not come out of the courts. We still have Triple J to worry about along with Madsen herself. I think Marriage equality will come from the legislature and follow the same path as R71.
28
MichaelP:

Update pleaseeee on whether this evening's returns still show that movement toward Wiggins we need to get that win (from the Kitsap, Pierce, Spokane, Whatcom returns). We really appreciate the elections stats crack. But it's addictive. More please!
29
Okay, Update time!

Today, Pierce, Spokane, Snohomish, Whatcom, and Kitsap Counties all reported, and Sanders is now up by 13,251, which is to be expected (he is leading in all but Kitsap).

In all of the counties but one, Wiggins improved his percentage (again), the exception being Kitsap, where his percentage of today's count, compared to his overall, was down by about .1% (still winning with late voters).

Snohomish, however, Sanders was winning just 50.8% of the vote (compared to 52.62% on election night).

According to the Secretary of State, there are approximately 369,102 ballots remaining, of which 195,000 are in King County alone (there are 221,964 estimated remaining ballots in all of the counties that Wiggins leads, 147,138 in Sanders counties)

Unsurprisingly, the more complex model has shown the end result decrease to a win of about 13.5k. However, the conservative estimate has Wiggins with a lead of around 5600 when all is said and done.

Needless to say, I think this continues to solidify my calling the race, even with Sanders ahead currently by 13,251. I'm guessing that on Monday at 4:30, when King County drops, we'll see that lead cut into the mid four figures, and stand by my prediction that Wiggins takes the lead on Tuesday.