Not only that (thanks for the link to check our ballots), but President Obama's approval went up today too.

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas!

There are several more counties left to report tonight, most of which will break in Johnson's direction.

Even so, the key races we're concerned with Wiggins for Supreme Court and Rick Larsen for House should be absolutely secure by this time tomorrow.

Okay, at this point, with Clark, Pierce and SnoCo all reporting (Sanders Counties), Sanders is only up by 2,258 votes. There are estimated 271,013 ballots to be counted. 125k of those are in King County, where Wiggins is taking 61.1% of late voters.

Stick a fork in Sanders, he is done.

If 71000 were counted in King today, the undervote was significant- only 69 percent of today's batch voted in the Wiggins-Sanders race. Hopefully Eli is correct that 130,000 King votes are all valid and will be counted tomorrow. Sanders spread will increase tonight with conservative Benton, Yakima and Spokane counties reporting later. Wiggins will need all the King help he can get to squeak this one out

We may not have taken down both bigot twins but at least we got one! Triple J will be left without his buddy sanders on the bench!

Wiggins = 1008962 Sanders = 1000862 Win Margin = 8100

Another egalitarian leftist on the bench to help us reach our racial utopia, Mao would be so proud!

Dare I dream, is denying institutional racism in the judicial system becoming the new 3rd rail of politics?

7, How is he a racist? By stating facts? Like that blacks commit more crimes than any other race.

@8: lulz

I READ IT IN A BOOK. SHUT UP SHUT UP YOU'RE WRONG I READ IT IN A BOOK I READ IT IN A BOOK I READ IT IN A BOOK I READ IT IN A BOOK FACTS FACTS FACTS FACTS FACTS FACTS FACTS FACTS FACTS I READ IT IN A BOOK

Eli, my cat didn't beat Johnson :-(

Luckily he has his fallback job:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0jB7NJ87…

9, huh?

@12: Yeah, exactly.

@8 Baconcat's got my back, I don't need no facts.

But in case you're bored, you could always read Michelle Alexander's "The New Jim Crow: Mass Incarceration in the Age of Colorblindness." I think you'll like it.

@14: That's the fastest way to turn him off from your point of view. Books tend to aggravate and consternate the thin-witted.

@16: I HAVE DISCOVERED THE INTERNETTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

@#17, see # 16 and try to find anything in it that is not true.

@#17, see #16 and try to find anything in it that is not true

And the final numbers of the night are in!

While I have the utmost respect for Mr. Sinderman (and his hair), and 100% believe that he exists, I believe he is being generous to Sanders with his estimate of the race.

Of course, he's a professional, and I'm a hack, but whatever.

At this point, Sanders is up by 3,785 votes, and my models give a Wiggins win of 9-14k.

Considering that, still, over half of the ballots remaining are in King County, and late votes in some counties have higher Wiggins percentages than Sanders (most notably Whatcom, where Wiggins is winning the late vote by four points, but was losing the county by four points on election day), it's in the bag for Wiggins.

And it's in the bag outside of the recount margin.

I previously have estimated that Wiggins will be up by around 4K tomorrow, I would now say it will be 5-7K.

This is absolutely amazing, and everyone who voted for Wiggins deserves a drink or two. And I'll take a few extra once all is said and done just for good measure.

@18/@19: wherein you try to make the sociological equivalent of claiming "the sky is blue" as a thesis-worthy scientific statement.

You are a might FACTASAURUS REX, raaaaaaaaaawrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!

@ 21 see my comment @ #16 and please point out anything in it that is not true.

Oh, that's right, YOU CAN'T! That's why you make such lame impotent insults! LOL@YOU

I took all of the counties vote totals, assigned a percentage to each candidate (by county), and then divided the total by the number of total votes cast, and then assigned the votes likely to be cast in this race and assigned them based on the percentage of votes each candidate is getting, and right now the expected win is Wiggins at about 9,000 votes.

@22: Explain at length the sociological basis for the current state of affairs that lead to a higher incidence of crime in at-risk cohorts like young black males, especially those cited and those living in at-or-below poverty level communities in urban areas. Tie this in to your thesis regarding the sufficiency of facile arguments as sociological assessment of current crime trends in the observed and cited community.

13, you have no rebuttal, you'd be laughed out of a courtroom for your lack of evidence. Prove to me that blacks dont commit more crime than any other race.

I delivered my ballot to a polling place last Tuesday and it's still not counted.

Jesus Christ! I was hoping this could be yet another thread where I could nerd out with numbers, and you dumb fucks went and ruined it.

PoliStatNerding has jumped the fucking shark. Thanks a lot, assholes.

@Naive and Basehead. This was litigated in the Ninth Circuit (the second highest court in the land) in January of this year, and you are both simply wrong. After 14 years of litigation, the Ninth Circuit concluded as follows:

Plaintiffs have demonstrated that the discriminatory impact of Washington’s felon disenfranchisement is attributable to racial discrimination in Washington’s criminal justice system; thus, that Washington’s felon disenfranchisement law violates
§ 2 of the [Voting Rights Act].

@30:

Black males ages 14 - 55 make up only about 3% of Seattle.

14 of the 28 homicides in Seattle in 2008 were committed by black males in the above-mentioned age group.

12 of the 21 homicides in Seattle in 2009 were committed by black males in the above-mentioned age group.

At least half of the 17 homicides in Seattle so far in 2010 were committed by black males in the above-mentioned age group.

-------

SO!!!! For that "litigation" to be correct, you would have to believe that white racists are somehow FORCING or CONVINCING a bunch of STUPID BLACK MALES to KILL EACH OTHER.

@29

"Jesus Christ! I was hoping this could be yet another thread where I could ignore the facts of reality, but you realists went and ruined it."

@27: Yes, regurgitating limited-scope evidence that is favorable to your point of view and values is totally in line with the justice system in this country. Bravo kiddo, you're well on your way to becoming America's Next Top Jurist.

@25: This isn't a question of the veracity of your claims, it's a question of the necessity and meaning of your claims and what point, aside from a values judgement of the relative safety of Seattle (although comparisons with other similar cities is notoriously absent!), you hope to make.

In short, do you have a point? And if you have a point, why should people give a fuck?

You certainly aren't making a very convincing case in either guise or any case here.

@31: I'm pretty sure you couldn't convince light out of a lightbulb, but nice try at making it ALL ABOUTTTTTTT YOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU BAAAAAAWWWWWWWWWWWWW ALL CAPS ALL CAPS SERIOUSNESS ALL CAPS

@33 "(although comparisons with other similar cities is notoriously absent!)"

OH WHOOPS SORRY

LET ME ENLIGHTEN YOUR NAIVE SHELTERED LIBTARDED SELF:

------------------------
New York City?

http://projects.nytimes.com/crime/homici…

New York Times - New York City Interactive Homicide Map:

Blacks = 60% of the killers, 60% of the victims

Whites = 7% of the killers, 8% of the victims

Blacks = 26% of NYC population

Whites = 35% of NYC population
--------------------------------------

DALLAS, TEXAS?

http://www.dallascityhall.com/committee_…

Homicides in Dallas Texas - 2008

Race of Suspect - # of Homicides - Percentage
White - 9 = 6%
Black - 72 = 47%
Hispanic - 24 = 16%
Unknown - 49 = 32%

Therefore, even if the every single one of the 49 "unknown" murderers were whites, the black murderers would still outnumber them!!!!!

To really put it in the proper perspective:

http://www.city-data.com/city/Dallas-Tex…

Dallas Population Racial Data:

Hispanic - 547,781 (44.6%)
White - 355,922 (29.0%)
Black - 274,087 (22.3%)
------------------------------

LOS ANGELES?

anyone that can read with a junior high level of reading comprehension can easily see that blacks (and latinos, don't forget THEM) commit the vast amount of homicides in LA, it provides the races of the killers and victims whenever possible:

http://projects.latimes.com/homicide/blo…

WANT SOME MORE?????!!!???

@34 SEE NUMBER 35!!!!

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpar…

The color of murder and gun violence in New York

By Jonathan Capehart
Nov. 10, 2010

"In short, 95.1 percent of all murder victims and 95.9 percent of all shooting victims in New York City are black or Hispanic. And 90.2 percent of those arrested for murder and 96.7 percent of those arrested for shooting someone are black and Hispanic. I don't even know where to begin to describe the horror I still feel looking at those numbers. But the word "hunted" comes to mind."