Nice to see you call out the dynamic scoring (price elasticity) effect. Keep it up!
Given the closeness of indian reservations to population centers in Washington, I suspect that effect will be large. Granting right off the bat that I am pulling numbers out of my ass, I wouldn't be surprised to see the effect reduce your projected revenues by more than 50%.
Shit, son, as pointed out, well above $6/pack. Last I checked (quitting is awesome!), Marlboro lights were $8.50 at my local mini-mart, and closer to $10 at most mini marts on the Hill.
The same could be accomplished by merely doubling the number of smokers. Cut funding to anti-smoking programs, reduce legislated restrictions on public tobacco use, and so forth. This has the advantage of being scalable, as increasing taxes is likely to drive people to quit, restrict their usage, or go to other markets for their tobacco use, which just deprives the state of money. A basic indifference curve shows that increased prices can often reduce profit, as people will merely adjust their buying behavior to avoid increased expense by instead spending that money on something else. People might smoke less and, say, drink more. So, in order for this plan to work, we'd have to also tax alternatives to smoking.
Of course, we already highly tax our alcohol compared to other states. We have some of the highest taxes on gas and cigarettes. But, we still have a budget shortfall. I'm not sure increased taxation that can be avoided by different buying behavior is going to be the solution.
Why stop at cigarettes? Raise the sales taxes on everything until it costs as much as everything in Manhattan. Wait... Manhattan, hell, lets make everything costs what it does in Tokyo. What could go wrong?
Has anyone considered that disproportionately taxing cigarettes to cover a general budget shortfall might be unethical? Taxes on smoking should cover the relative social costs of smoking, but if you gouge smokers you're no different than big tobacco: "lets take advantage of people who are addicted to a commodity". Smokers often don't do so by choice, they're addicted. Sure some folks quit for good, but its extremely difficult. Not to mention, smokers are disproportionally poor and from minority groups. Don't be an asshole.
@5 - And that is exactly what will happen. Canada's been struggling with finding that sweet spot between taxation and bolstering the black market for decades. http://www.fraserinstitute.org/research-…
You guys must listen to a lot of Alanis Morissette in that office...first, on the day after FatterGate, you post a Philly cheese steak review. Then you do a post on taxing cigarettes, because, you know, they're so bad for your health, and people who smoke won't live as long, and it's totally okay to write a post about that...huh.
Tax the fuck out of it. As a participant in America's silent markets I welcome potential economic growth.
Man is a an animal that will always use the available components of his environment to enrich himself.
At some point laws no longer do anything but create opportunity for people with the gumption to break them. It's been a couple decades since I sold trunks full of untaxed tobacco on paydays at construction sites but I did it and I did it under far smaller profit margins.
Don't kid yourself. There is a shit ton of untaxed tobacco from the south peddled on the island at great profit. Open up a new outpost in Seattle, why don't you? Make it cost effective to bring some $32 a carton inventory from Kentucky. This way the state gets it's tax money from the squares and the rest of us get over.
A couple of months of go, the stranger: "Hey guys, you know what we hate, regressive taxes. Only evil bastards support our regressive taxes in washington"
Now, The Stranger: "Hey guys, you know what we hate, smokers, lets tax the hell out of them even though this would be increasing the regressive taxes on the poor in the state. Don't worry, it's not the poor that smoking, right guys? Right? Poor people won't be hit by this at all. Everyone know only fat cats in their ivory towers smoke."
@11 we already do. WA voters just voted, overwhelmingly, to continue the state run monopoly on booze, which keeps the ridiculous markups that are basically the state taxing us twice for the same bottle.
I can't believe The Stranger is promoting a regressive tax. You sound like the fucking republican teabag party.
If you raise the taxes that much, people who can afford to will simply order them out-of-state or drive somewhere where it's cheaper to get them (Manhattanites do it all the time). Those who CAN'T afford to, you know, the people you claim to be fighting for, will either resort to theft or will go dirt-fucking-broke paying for the one thing that gives them pleasure in their lives.
How about we tax the fuck fuck out of Mexican coca-cola and sushi? You guys would go apeshit if that happened.
Christ, Dominic, I seriously cannot believe you are in favor of a teabagger-esque: Let's-fuck-over-the-people-I-personally-find-distasteful tax like this.
Hey Washington...your state is fucking broke. Your state is on the verge on bankruptcy. Good thing there's already legislation on the cusp of passing both the house and senate that will make it legal for state's to declare bankruptcy. Time to pay the piper.
@26 You missed the point, which was that Dom finds it rather easy to increase taxes on tobacco smokers (since he isn't, and I suspect has never been one) but when the same regressive tax is turned on a vice that he actually participates in, he wouldn't dare to suggest such a thing.
This is fucking stupid. In any other state I'd be all for it but we're already the state with the most regressive tax code. The poor are punished enough.
How the hell did this turn into a pity party for the poor? We're not talking about a tax on food staples, or raising bus fares, or a general sales tax increase--we're talking about cigarettes. Listening to some of you, you'd think the state needs a program to help people at the poverty line get their cigs.
@38 - However, in the years that I have lived here, a pack of smokes has gone from less than $2 to over $10 - when the price of your drink at the bar has gone up 400%, we can add some more taxes on the smokers. Until then, this idea is pure bullshit.
It's pointless to even have this discussion if you're going to outright ignore the health aspect. Propping up state government on the backs of people who are addicted to a deadly substance is both stupid and immoral.
Raising the price of cigarettes actually makes people QUIT smoking. Smoking is the leading cause of preventable death in King County. The poor are even more price sensitive/more likely to quit when prices go up...so wouldn't raising taxes on cigarettes actually disproportionally HELP the poor?
Sure, no problem. Just raise the tax on every bottle of booze and every 6-pack of beer to equal the tax on a pack of cigarettes. Because you drinkers need to be anally raped for exercising your choices too.
Holden you're quite the loose cannon. No doubt next week you'll change your stance on this, like you did on the tunnel. Or are you just trying to stir up trouble?
Given the closeness of indian reservations to population centers in Washington, I suspect that effect will be large. Granting right off the bat that I am pulling numbers out of my ass, I wouldn't be surprised to see the effect reduce your projected revenues by more than 50%.
O RLY?
Of course, we already highly tax our alcohol compared to other states. We have some of the highest taxes on gas and cigarettes. But, we still have a budget shortfall. I'm not sure increased taxation that can be avoided by different buying behavior is going to be the solution.
*crickets*
Also, if cigarettes get taxed, tax booze, fast food, candy and bacon.
-Not a smoker
http://www.fraserinstitute.org/research-…
Man is a an animal that will always use the available components of his environment to enrich himself.
At some point laws no longer do anything but create opportunity for people with the gumption to break them. It's been a couple decades since I sold trunks full of untaxed tobacco on paydays at construction sites but I did it and I did it under far smaller profit margins.
Don't kid yourself. There is a shit ton of untaxed tobacco from the south peddled on the island at great profit. Open up a new outpost in Seattle, why don't you? Make it cost effective to bring some $32 a carton inventory from Kentucky. This way the state gets it's tax money from the squares and the rest of us get over.
Now, The Stranger: "Hey guys, you know what we hate, smokers, lets tax the hell out of them even though this would be increasing the regressive taxes on the poor in the state. Don't worry, it's not the poor that smoking, right guys? Right? Poor people won't be hit by this at all. Everyone know only fat cats in their ivory towers smoke."
Ugh.
I can't believe The Stranger is promoting a regressive tax. You sound like the fucking republican teabag party.
If you raise the taxes that much, people who can afford to will simply order them out-of-state or drive somewhere where it's cheaper to get them (Manhattanites do it all the time). Those who CAN'T afford to, you know, the people you claim to be fighting for, will either resort to theft or will go dirt-fucking-broke paying for the one thing that gives them pleasure in their lives.
How about we tax the fuck fuck out of Mexican coca-cola and sushi? You guys would go apeshit if that happened.
Christ, Dominic, I seriously cannot believe you are in favor of a teabagger-esque: Let's-fuck-over-the-people-I-personally-find-distasteful tax like this.
Oh, and for the record, I'm NOT a smoker.
Disclaimer: Former smoker, still a drinker.
Is it better to cut the funding of programs that help low income folks, or "tax the fuck" out of low income folks?
Holden you're quite the loose cannon. No doubt next week you'll change your stance on this, like you did on the tunnel. Or are you just trying to stir up trouble?