You mean if Santorum loses bigtime tomorrow, then we gloat all day. If he prevails, well, then it's just an anomaly of the odd process; try not to give it any weight.

@1: No, I mean preference polls are less predictive of caucus results than they are of primary results, due to the nature of the process.

That said, Santorum can't win the nomination. I wish he could, but he can't. He has neither the money nor the organization to do much outside of Iowa, so a win there will be about as meaningful as Huckabee's was four year's ago.

If Santorum truly ends up surging from behind, we can all look forward to a fun campaign season. Rick will see it as a sign from his imaginary god, as will comedy writers across the nation. And there's no threat of his winning a general election, so everyone can join in the fun!

"Bachmann and Gingrich mop up after 'come from behind' Santorum surge". Damn, fun-lovin' residents of Iowa, get ON with your bad selves!

Fair enough.

With so many at Slog so eager to see S's inevitable failure, this post just sounded a bit like preemptive sour grapes.

Except that even Iowans know that no one gives a shit who wins their actual delegates.

That and the caucus is pretty much just a primary with speeches before hand.

Notsean, most of us would love for Santorum to win the nomination. He has absolutely no chance of winning the elections, and we get to make fun of the stupid shit he spouts from his smarmy little orifice.

Troll dear, our front yard post lamp's light bulb burned out on Saturday. Tomorrow will mark day 3 of your intentionally and conspicuously failing to come replace it.

No one thought Shrub had any chance to win the election either. America is even stupider now than it was then.

@2: Goldy, I think it’s too smug to say that if Santorum won the nomination that he’d be defeated with 100% certainty. While It’s highly probable that you’re right, any Republican nominee still has a significant chance of winning the presidency. That’s too close for comfort as a far as I’m concerned, so I’m hoping that Santorum gets buried in Iowa.

ummmm.. will iowans go for shit like this ?
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/01/02/sa…

Per Nate Silver: "Reminder: Republicans do NOT have a 15% viability threshold in IA as Democratic caucuses do, so 2nd place choices do not matter."

Excluding years where Republican nominee was running unopposed, the Iowa Republican caucuses have picked the eventual nominee only 50% of the time, and have passed twice (Reagan, George HW Bush) on the man that actually became president.

Yes - they didn't even choose Reagan. In 1980.

Meanwhile, for candidates running opposed, the New Hampshire Republican primaries (which has 7 more elections under its belt) has a 3/4 success rate in getting the nominee right, and only once passed on the eventual president. (GW Bush.)

So why again are we paying attention to these Jesus-freak farmers?

@12 - I'm sure there are a lot of non-religious-extremist Republicans that would hold their noses (damn it - so hard to avoid puns with this guy) and vote for Santorum, but his views are far too extreme for most Independents who actually see a distinction between their religion and their government. And you can't win an election without them.

the only thing that would surprise me is a non-republican winning. otherwise, zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. fuck em.

@12 '..any Republican nominee still has a significant chance of winning the presidency. ..'
so far, that's the most depressing sentence i've read so far this year.

All my Democrat friends in Iowa are caucusing for Rick Perry.

What do you mean, "it's a caucus not a primary"? Some states use primaries to pick delegates, some use caucuses. Both methods send delegates to the nominating convention. These are just as binding as primaries. Don't worry????

@11 Many thought Reagan didn't have a chance either. Though, it probably has more to do with propaganda than stupidity.

@20: No, caucuses and primaries a very different, and in two important ways.

First, primaries assign delegates based on the popular vote according to some predetermined formula, whereas in Iowa, the delegates selected at each stage of the caucus (precinct, county, district) are unbound, and can and do switch at the subsequent convention.

Second, primaries are conducted during a daylong election, with little or no interaction between voters, whereas at a precinct caucus neighbors gather to discuss and persuade and haggle. If you are Christian righty Bachmann supporter who hates Romney, for example, and you discover that there are 6 votes for Bachmann, 9 for Santorum, and 10 for Romney—meaning Romney gets the delegate—you might be persuaded to vote for Santorum instead, just to get a delegate for your second choice. Those are the kind of discussions that go on at caucuses, even though in Iowa, the vote is still usually conducted by secret ballot.

For what it's worth: I like caucuses way more than primaries. It's a political, educational and a dust up. They often have some fire to them. My first caucus was hosted by a very committed Bush 1 supporter in 1980. Participating in that discussion where John Anderson (my guy at the time) won was a pleasure. Watching Reagan get the nomination and then presidency was way less fun. I've since thought better of Bush 1 but then my standards have been dropping as I age. By 2008 I was enthusiastic just because we could choose between candidates who routinely spoke in complete sentences.

Four years ago, the media branded Iowa as all-important; now, with Ron Paul in a position to possibly win the caucus I guess it doesn't matter...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pla…

@24: it does matter. It matters when any of these idiotic crazies could get national attention, much less win a state. I thought we'd left the days of Orval Faubus behind but apparently not.

Actually the Iowa caucuses are non-binding! That right folks - the votes today do not mean a damn thing!

Of the not-mitts only Paul has a national organization any more. Santorum is dead meat in NH anyway, while Paul will do well it probably is Romney. The Carolina primary probably breaks for a religious wingnut over Romney. Then comes Florida, unless the entire party moves to a single not-mitt, Willard will win there & the race will be over by Super Tuesday.

Phoebe in Wallingford @12
Sadly you are right. The Republican candidate probably has 50 million votes even if it is a total loon. The election comes down to swaying the 10 million voters who won't decide till they get to the booth. 10 million people who have not really been paying attention, who have no idea what either party has done or actually proposes to do. 10 million people who can probably go into great detail about what Snookie has been up to or who is getting the most votes on Dancing with Dunces or American Idiot but have no clue what a Glass–Steagall is or what marginal tax rate actually means.

So, yes, we are probably fucked.

Goldy has this story so wrong it's not even funny. Almost every detail is incorrect. What kind of moron would post something like this?

Willard will win in the end. Don't we all know that?

@28:

Goldy has this story so wrong it's not even funny. Almost every detail is incorrect. What kind of moron would post something like this?

I don't particularly like being corrected (who does?), but I'm willing to man up when I have some fact demonstrably wrong. So could you please explain to me what I have wrong in this story? If I've misrepresented the way Iowa's caucuses work, please provide details.

Happy to oblige.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/201…

The only reason Ron Paul is not 20+ points ahead of everyone is that the whore media has been doing everything in their power to bury any and all coverage of him. The real shame is that all the idiots and morons out there are allowing the dying dinosaur media tell them who to vote for! Even with all of their (whore media) attempts at dismissal, Ron Paul is still in the top two, what does that tell you? If they weren't so hell bent on America's destruction for their own personal gain, Ron Paul would absolutely obliterate Osama. WAKE UP AMERICA!!!! Quit being led around by your noses, and quit flopping in the breeze. The time has come to make a stand for what is right, and TAKE our country back!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I find it simply unbelievable that there are so many flip-floppin' suckerbob morons in this world. They think they can keep electing establishment turds and get different results. If we do not elect Ron Paul then we can kiss ours and our childrens futures adios, it's really that simple. As much as I dislike Osama, he'll get my vote if my choice is between him and Romney or Gingrich. They are are just (if not more) as self-serving and unpatriotic as he is. QUIT letting the whore media tell you who can win and who can't, that's our decision, not theirs. Stay out of our business!! WAKE UP AMERICA!!!! Time to take our country back.

@33: Um... how does any of that contradict anything I wrote? It merely goes into more detail.