Speaking of World-Ending Calamities That Didn't Happen...


I don't follow the connection between McGinn and Inslee at all. Or the gov's race with the mayor's race. What is your point? How are they similar?
I still adhere to the narrative that says that Inslee rode the R-74 wave into office.

That, and he's just so darned handsome.
#1 The connection is that "nobody really knows what is going to happen in politics." It's a good Hail Mary if you need one.
#3 Tell that to Nate Silver.
Come on guys, make it 12 people running,

You can do it!
McGinn has the police guild in the bag. That should at least result a few votes from the handful of Guild members who live in the city.
The two races are completely different. The Inslee-McKenna race was a two-way partisan contest that depended on people's party membership/identification. The mayors race is a multi-candidate Democratic clusterfuck in which the main issue will be competence--something Mike hasn't demonstrated yet. Mike is unlikely to survive the primary and his three major rivals can likely beat him in a head to head race.
7 is correct, and I would add that the governorship was McKenna's to lose; McGinn has, completely on his own, made the Mayor's race his own to just survive the primary.
@7 & 8 - folks don't generally understand how McGinn won the first time. He actually copied a lot of Greg Nickles strategy from Nickles first race (which he very, very narrowly won). Nickles (and McGinn) pay attention to voters in South Seattle. They are less concerned with the wealthier neighborhoods surrounding Lake Union. The wealthy districts, and corporate lapdogs of the Seattle Times, have more money. But it's still one vote per person.

Also, remember that the primary is going to involve *three* spineless politicians who lacked the balls to run against Nickles last time - and they are essentially chasing the same votes. McGinn cruises through the primary. Not saying he's going to win again, but anyone paying attention to how you actually win a race has a lot of respect for McGinn. His last campaign was brilliantly managed - he was outspent 10-1 in the primary and 8-1 in the general. Chew on that.
9: First time contenders have the luxury of not having any record to defend. McGinn, like Nickles, has to explain the last four years, and unlike Nickles, McGinn is now running against some better-known names.
Just goes to show that no one reads the Seattle Times and their continual dogging of Inslee and McGinn and their endorsements of opponents. In the general election, the media's constant berating of Obama and explaining all issues with false equivalencies made people mad and Silver correct. It is the voters that count.
I'm not sure being the Police Guild candidate is a good thing right now. I'm sort of positively disposed to McGinn in a bunch of areas, but, if true, that is probably too much for me.