Poll Says the Mayor's Race Is Over

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Murray could really screw up. Maybe someone should start a rumor that he's secretly straight and really lives in Pasco.

SeattleWeedTours on October 8, 2013 at 9:27 AM

Daaamn. "19-29 year olds favored Murray 53 to 20 percent"?!?

I can't help hoping this makes McGinn really go for it, though. Play up the underdog aspect, be Rocky. Better to burn out than fade away!

TomJohnsonJr on October 8, 2013 at 9:33 AM

Are the debates being streamed online? Otherwise I don't know anyone who will watch them.

wxPDX on October 8, 2013 at 9:34 AM

Murray's going to be a limp dishrag of a mayor. The plutocrats are going to call all of the shots and once again Seattle will scratch their heads wondering what went wrong. And we can postpone reforming the police for another four years.

Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn on October 8, 2013 at 9:50 AM

Dominic is wrong.

The Murray camp has Murray up 12. On the mayor's side, our calling shows us down 7. We have three debates, tv ads and the best ground game in the history of Seattle. This will be close.

I don't know why Dominic insists on a breathless exclamation everytime he sees an autodial poll. These polls skew older. There are very few cell phone users. They miss people who move frequently.

The poll is bullshit.

JohnWyble on October 8, 2013 at 9:50 AM

Murray's so confident he threw away the bike vote:

http://www.ballardnewstribune.com/2013/1…

I agree with #4, above.

LMcGuff on October 8, 2013 at 9:54 AM

Cool! I hate McGinn. When it came to serious SPD problems, he phoned it in each and every time. Had to be dragged, kicking and screaming into settlement. Basically cared more about transportation than anything else and as such, couldn't effectively multitask.

Kinison on October 8, 2013 at 9:57 AM

@5 Wyble, you do tons of autodial polls yourself, probably more than any D consultant in the state. If you're saying that autodial polls are fundamentally flawed, you're writing off a TON of polling that you yourself have used for campaign strategy and have leaked to the media. It's your job to call this poll bullshit but at least do it in a way that's internally consistent.

c'mon girlfriend on October 8, 2013 at 10:01 AM

Of course, Dominic predicting for three months that Murray would win is definitely a major factor here. Get over yourself, man.

moddie on October 8, 2013 at 10:05 AM

@5: Yeah... of course you'd spin the poll differently, that's what McGinn's paying you for. Your opinion here is otherwise meaningless, though.

pheeeew!crack!boom! on October 8, 2013 at 10:05 AM

Looks like younger voters not older voters skew Murray, well, all voters do, but younger voters more: 19-29 year olds favored Murray 53 to 20 percent. And McGinn has a 49 percent disapproval rating (highest among young voters at 60 percent).

Wyble - You either need to spin this poll or McGinn needs to find a new campaign manager. The last incumbent to get their ass kicked in Seattle like this was Tom Carr.

WhattheHell on October 8, 2013 at 10:06 AM

I don't understand Seattleites. This is a town that rabidly supported Obama for the sake of "change" (Let's elect a politician who doesn't play dirty and isn't in bed with corporations.) That same enthusiasm put McGinn in office and he has been terrific. Now Seattle wants to replace its for-the-people mayor with an old-school politician who knows how to play the system and make deals. I don't get it. McGinn might not get every little thing done at the speed of light, but maybe that's because he's not in bed with big business.

mitten on October 8, 2013 at 10:06 AM

Ditto on @12.

But Murray did just mess up with the bike folks - not a deal-breaker but makes you wonder about what kind of mayor he would be. I mean that area of the B-G trail has been studied for years - what's Murray going to do differently?

westello on October 8, 2013 at 10:09 AM

@6

Big business told Murray "no missing link" and Murray said, "Yes, sir. You hired me, you give the orders."

Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn on October 8, 2013 at 10:09 AM

@12 I couldn't agree with you more. Thank you.

pangloss on October 8, 2013 at 10:14 AM

@12 is right. Give Murray a couple of years and you're all going to be bitching about him. He's going to be a nightmare.

very bad homo on October 8, 2013 at 10:18 AM

@12

I don't understand Seattleites either. Nor do I understand anyone in the world.

But the early songs by Bjork I still find infectious:
"If you ever get close to a human and human behavior
Be ready, be ready to get confused and be in my head after
There's definitely, definitely, definitely no logic to human behavior
But yet so, yet so irresistible and me and my fear can
And there is no map uncertain...."

dnt trust me on October 8, 2013 at 10:22 AM

#5) I do a lot of autodial polls. I think they are still useful outside of urban areas and in low turnout races. However, the number of cell phone users who don't have landline phones as tipped to the point that these polls have a big conservative bias.

This has happened very quickly over the last couple years. I still think these polls have utility but I think they are off-base in a urban general election.

JohnWyble on October 8, 2013 at 10:22 AM

Man, you guys are sore losers even before your Long Island carpet bagger (along with the Mumbling Mumbaiian) is sent packing back to Greenwood by Seattle's smart voters.

You should all wait until you get reamed at the polls before you act saddle sore, it's very unbecoming.

on October 8, 2013 at 10:29 AM

Time for McGinn cheerleaders to set up an 'unskewed' poll website I guess.

on October 8, 2013 at 10:30 AM

@16, if journos (and commenters) aren't bitching about our electeds as soon as we put them in office, there's something wrong with us. As Mencken said, journalist should be to politician as dog is to lamp-post.

TomJohnsonJr on October 8, 2013 at 10:31 AM

You can hardly compare the fringe rantings of the Stranger (or the Stranger's commenters!) to the vast pull of Seattle's one and only daily newspaper. The Times had it in for McGinn from the day they ever heard his name and the media drumbeat takes its toll year after year. The TV news isn't much better, and besides the TV, what have you got?

And the Seattle Times will do their bit to prop Murray up as long as he follows orders. The only thing he has to worry about is an even more pliable candidate with a decent shot of winning. Otherwise the media will cover his ass.

Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn on October 8, 2013 at 10:36 AM

@22

waah, waah, waah....

on October 8, 2013 at 10:42 AM

@12 How does his abject failure to handle SPD reform - the single most important civil rights and social justice issue facing Seattle - jibe with your "mayor of the people" label? Do the communities made to feel like second-class citizens in their own city just not count in your calculation?

I don't know if Murray will be any better, but McGinn has already shown us he doesn't have what it takes. I'm not going to reward that kind of failure on my ballot.

Hernandez on October 8, 2013 at 10:49 AM

@13 Murray knows the bike folks are never, ever going to support him. He might pooh-pooh even more Seattle cycling plans leading up to the election in an effort to court anti-cyclists.

mitten on October 8, 2013 at 10:50 AM

@24 I agree that SPD reform is absolutely critical. But, again, I do not think sweeping one very good politician out the door in hopes that the next one will be better on one single issue—as critical issue as it certainly is—is smart or responsible. That goes double if we "don't know if Murray will be any better" on that one single issue. Politics should not be a serious of willy-nilly decisions (see the Republicans).

To boot, SPD reform isn't an issue specifically linked to McGinn. SPD was damaged prior to McGinn's election. Obama was elected into a complete mess and we decided he needed four more years to prove his worth. The same is true of McGinn's leadership on the SPD issue.

mitten on October 8, 2013 at 11:00 AM

In the end, money and polls don't matter--real people and real votes matter--polls have been wrong before. Look at the pew poll that showed Romney ahead. Campaigns change daily, ED MURRAY is an old school establishment politico, he and his camp throw out these poll #s every time he blunders (like he did yesterday in showing his absolute ignorance on the missing link issue.) There MO is to deflect and deny. DEFLECT because Murray is weak on the issues and DENY because he's in the pocket of special interests (which I am sure is what is driving his wishy washy bike statements.) The guy is paying consultants out the wazoo (Greer to teach him how to give speeches when he's been in the legislature for 18 years) and polling to test his "divisive" vs. "togetherness" meme. Hopefully the people can see through his bullshit, but for Dom to make definitive statements now is buying into the hype Murray's sleazy campaign tactics are selling.

betty77 on October 8, 2013 at 11:08 AM

So, in short, they phoned old people who vote in primaries.

Like me - I got polled.

Will in Seattle on October 8, 2013 at 11:15 AM

Another @12 +1. Well said.

DOUG. on October 8, 2013 at 11:16 AM

Politics should not be a serious (sic) of willy-nilly decisions

Why not? How much better off would this country be if incumbents didn't get carte-blanche to do whatever the fuck they want because the voters keep sending them back regardless of what they're actually doing in office? What this country needs is a much greater willingness to throw the motherfuckers out on a regular basis.

I'm leaning McGinn, but not happily. If Murray seems even slightly better than McGinn on SPD reform (and that's not going to take much; McGinn's stonewalling is fucking shameful), he has my vote.

keshmeshi on October 8, 2013 at 11:36 AM

@25 There are a lot of bicyclists (like myself) who actually believed until yesterday that Murray would not be all that bad, and bought his effectiveness argument to some degree. McGinn has a strong preference for safety projects in the city; Murray would likely be less supportive but more likely overall to get a funding measure passed. Unfortunately, Murray decided to light a fire by writing off people who bike (more than just daily commuters - thousands and thousands of adults and children).

kurisu on October 8, 2013 at 11:36 AM

@5, looking forward to seeing your data that supports your "bullshit" comment. Pulling a number out of the sky, and calling "bullshit" isn't a particularly compelling argument to a poll where I can see the questions being asked, and the breakout of respondents.

MrBaker on October 8, 2013 at 11:43 AM

#31 You might have thought Murray wouldn't be "all that bad" but you know perfectly well that you were going to vote for McGinn anyway.

avocado on October 8, 2013 at 11:47 AM

McGinn's camp likes to play peek-a-boo with reality when the polls they have so often cited for validation go against them. I am hoping they'll show more composure when the votes are counted.

Zander on October 8, 2013 at 12:23 PM

You guys are funny, the bicycle vote is a fart in the wind.

Lew Siffer on October 8, 2013 at 12:40 PM

@35 Yes, but it smells like shit so hard to ignore.

on October 8, 2013 at 12:47 PM

We're not allowed to vote for police chief, but we're certainly allowed to vote for (or against) the guy who hires (or doesn't) the next police chief.

How does a man-of-the-people build a trolley to service Amazon and the new Capitol Hill high-rises while ignoring the city's overwhelming homelessness problem? How many of our new street kids used to live in Capitol Hill's old housing stock?

I suppose they could just ride the trolley back and forth all night.

SeattleWeedTours on October 8, 2013 at 1:01 PM

I'm surprised Murray's campaign is not talking about McGinn's Viaduct lies. I voted for McGinn - only after he explicitly said he would not challenge the Council's viaduct position. And then the first thing he did was try to pull the plug on the tunnel. His promise couldn't have been any more clear (and essential to his winning- and seems the first example of his say anything to win nature). And his instant action on it such a clear violation of his promise -http://crosscut.com/2010/07/28/alaskan-w… (and then there was advisor conflict: http://thesunbreak.com/2010/02/05/embatt…

retrogrouch on October 8, 2013 at 1:02 PM

"How many of our new street kids used to live in Capitol Hill's old housing stock?"

None.

on October 8, 2013 at 1:13 PM

@23

Good point. I can see why a man like Ed Murray so inspires your admiration.

Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn on October 8, 2013 at 2:14 PM

I can't wait for all the miles and miles of empty bike lanes to begin disappearing...

MarkyMark on October 8, 2013 at 2:27 PM

@12: Note the story: "PubliCola notes that the poll over-sampled older voters, who may skew towards Murray, but I don't think that makes a difference with a chasm like this."

Who the hell in Seattle has a land line? Seriously.

McGinn still has a pretty decent shot among the vast majority of Seattle, I trust polls less and less these days.

on October 8, 2013 at 3:26 PM

When I think of what Norm Rice did for this city and then think about McGinn, the only thing that comes to mind is sharrows. That, and his petulance. Oh, and the tracks he paved over on Alaskan Way to add more parking spaces for cars. Thanks, Mayor Transit!

kk in seattle on October 8, 2013 at 3:48 PM

@4: That's it in a nutshell. I'm mystified - granted, that happens not infrequently, but I don't get this race.

Boring Dad is Boring on October 8, 2013 at 5:46 PM

@4: "Seattle will scratch their heads wondering what went wrong."

No they won't. This is no monoculture "decision". This what happens when generations stop getting land-lines and you skip over a significant portion of Seattle.

undead ayn rand on October 9, 2013 at 7:46 AM

Poll Says the Mayor's Race Is Over

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