Donald Trump doesn't believe that climate change is real, but some unusual weather events in New Hampshire might just convince him if they play a role in him losing the primary next week.

If you called any of your relatives back east over the last few weeks, they might've mentioned some unseasonably warm conditions. It's been lovely and warm in New Hampshire, which means that campaigns with strong ground forces have had a real advantage with their door-knocking and sign-erecting and baby-kissing. That's Cruz, Rubio, and Bush, all of whom have strong get-out-the-vote machines.

But search for "Manchester NH weather" right now and you'll get a "Winter Storm Warning" alert. That's bad news for candidates who have just parachuted in at the last minute ... like, whoops, Donald J. Trump.

The weather's already taken a slight toll on Trump's campaign. He cancelled a rally for today, apparently because he's been flying home to New York come nights and couldn't get a flight back to New Hampshire during the storm. (The other candidates all stay in the state overnight, since it is fucking mental to do that much flying around the state you're in to campaign. None of them cancelled any events during the storm.)

New Hampshire's starting to notice that Donald doesn't seem to like them very much. "I think that’s pretty noticeable that he comes in and he leaves," complained a state GOP official.

Tough luck, Donald! So hard to predict what the weather's going to do these days. Do you think you might want to give a little more thought to how climate change might be a real thing, rather than, as you continue to express, a hoax created for the benefit of China?

Now just to be clear — it still looks really, really, really good for Trump in New Hampshire. Nate Silver has him at a 63 percent chance of winning.

But his lead's getting wobbly. As Iowa proved, Trump's weirdo campaign is as difficult to predict as the weather, so his statistical leads might not translate into the results we expect. And Rubio in particular just got a big jolt of support in the state, so he might catch up to Trump by Tuesday — especially if Trump can't manage to motivate voters at the last second. And Rubio has a healthy lead on Ted Cruz, so there's a chance — a slim one, but still — that he could come out on top.

And Trump seems to know it. "I don’t know if I’m going to win but I have a good chance," he said yesterday — quite a tone shift from the asshole who just assumes he can waltz in and run the world.