People ARE moving. Mostly do to expense.

Well. I moved. Or we're still in process. But we moved out of the US. So I suppose that's not what they mean.

Regardless I wonder where this other exodus is to?

Most Red cities of comparable size to Seattle (what few Red cities there are) have HIGHER violent crime rates. Dallas. Houston. Jacksonville. Anchorage. Oklahoma City. Almost any Red State southern major city.

That leaves small cities like Boise, Missoula, or Spokane. And guess what. Boise has very low violent crime considering. Spokane's is not that much lower. But Boise is no longer cheap.

Anyway. Crime is trending up in those cities while the longer trends for Seattle is trending down. At least before the Pandemic. So this shell game of shuffling around for a few years in search of rightwing paradise only imports gentrification that much faster.

And trends will only continue as populations increase if policies do not adapt. Because the only tactic Red cities have for lowering "crime" (as in property crime and the crime of homelessness; let's face that is what they mean) is exporting it to other cities. And that's not sustainable.

Charles, I know you love to ramble on about obscure economists no one cares about, but in doing so, you missed a good opportunity to illustrate your points. Why not look a little further back in time, to when the CD was the home of the city's Jewish population? You could examine why that changed, and what it tells us about current issues relating to displacement and gentrification. I always thought the old temples in the CD that have been repurposed as Baptist churches, performing arts centers, and so on were a remarkable illustration of those concepts.

I can say from my experience, both from work and from being a Seattle resident, that the town is getting more crowded. Everybody and their brother who has a house is putting in an accessory dwelling unit and those with any extra yard are putting in a detached accessory dwelling unit (and that's not even counting all the "townhouses" going in where the zoning allows). And since ADU's and DADU's can now be sold independently, they are going for truly insane amounts of money. Much more than we paid for Maison Vel-DuRay.

My fear has always been that Seattle would turn into a town for the wealthy, with a permanent poverty level class that would be treated largely as an indulgence, and I think that's what's happening. The only exception are the homeless, which even liberal Seattleites are losing patience with.

@1 - Red states and cities exporting their homeless to Seattle is plenty sustainable. At least for them And they don't give a fuck what it does to the homeless or the places to which they are exported. Forcing liberal states/cities to foot the bill for the poor is right in line with the general freeloading nature of Red states.

All segments of the political spectrum might have their reasons for wanting an exodus. I would think that the left/progressive demographic would want an exodus to drive down rent and the cost of buying house.

You are right Charles in that there is no mass exodus from Seattle; at least as population is concerned. On the other hand, businesses are leaving or just closing up all together. When that happens the city will lose its tax base and ultimately go bankrupt. The reason is mass lawlessness; safety and order slip away more and more every day. I believe that Nordstroms will close up downtown, maybe even Starbucks as well. Amazon is cutting back their presence as well; most former downtown office workers don't want to return either.

It's really a shame what Seattle has let itself become. With the BLM riots, which really were not about black lives but rather a seized opportunity by the socialist anarchists to try and bring down the government. The CHAZ is perfect example; the anarchists actually declared it to be a separate sovereign state and was a total mess. It used to be cool to say you lived in seattle, even cooler if you live up on Capital Hill but not anymore. Seattle has lost it's verve and will never be the same again; downtown will be a mini Detroit when Boeing starts leaving.

As much as we want to think that some of us are emotion driven and some of us are data driven, it’s mostly emotion up and down the spectrum. The Seattle left somehow thought prolonged school closures were the best for our children; the right magically thinks buying more guns will fix mass shootings. We’ve abandoned transcendence in the name of partisan tribalism, so it’s all finger pointing and name calling from there.

Charles - your attribution of Marx's opposition to the "should" and his alleged disregard for cultural aspects of social life is a vast misrepresentation of his work. Focus on the "is" should be understood as an important examination of the material conditions and relations of production, rather than SOLELY a dismissal of culture and human agency. Your association of idealism with mood, particularly in the Kierkegaardian sense, is... well, frankly bullshit, and I think you know it.

Low-key ostracization drove away people afraid of the other.
They moved to Boise.

Kierkegaard loaded the moving truck.

Bertha dear, put a sock in it. Parts of downtown have some issues, but if you look at just about every neighborhood business district, they are thriving. As homes get smaller, restaurants and other public spaces will become increasingly important

A big part of downtown's problems have to do with Macy's complete incompetence. A seven story department store was a completely unrealistic expectation, but a three story department store with a entrance directly on the transit hub should have been a gold mine (I point you to The Hudson Bay Company in downtown Vancouver as evidence of that. They are redeveloping their historic building into an office and retail complex, and maintaining 350,000 square feet of retail). Unfortunately, Macy's is no longer ran by merchants. The bean counters took the money and ran, as they have done in so many lucrative markets.

As for Boeing, I've long thought that they were in a Long Goodbye mode, but I don't think they'll ever completely leave the region, for this is where the skilled labor (engineers and mechanics) prefer to live.

Oh, and as for Nordstrom: Long before Covid or CHAZ or BLM or any of the other right-wing bed-wetting topics came along, they were gutting themselves in the hopes of making themselves attractive to potential purchasers. They're closing their downtown San Francisco operations (both full-line store and rack), and they probably would close downtown if it weren't for the optics of it.

So, in a post intended to point fingers at “the right,” we get one quote from (wait for it) a Seattle-based flight attendant. Super fascist gang, those people are, everybody knows this.

@10: The Stranger now defines “the right” as everyone who is not CM Sawant. Their complaints are the source of all problems. The Stranger continuing to push the dead policy of defund is not the problem; “the right” talking about it is the problem. Encampments full of thieves are not the problem; “the right” talking about them is the problem. Businesses closing due to rampant street crime is not a problem; “the right” saying this is A Bad Thing is the problem. At the end of this graveyard spiral, the slightest dissent will be labeled capital treason, and all dissenters dealt with accordingly. (In the fantasy version; in reality, the Stranger’s favorite politicians are all quitting or losing, after which the Stranger will scream and whine impotently, blaming everyone else for all problems.)

The remainder of this post is all obscure Marxist metaphysics, quoted by Charles as proof that he reads, which are (as noted @8) mostly bullshit, and totally irrelevant to reality anyway.

@2: Nicely done! I see what you’re doing there.

The Seattle Times -- that bastion of urbanism -- just published a story on how Seattle is now officially the fastest growing big city*. Sometimes the facts just speak for themselves, and conservatives can't do shit about it. Anyway, the right has been attacking cities since Nixon. This probably happened before Tricky Dick, but the "Southern Strategy" was obviously a "race strategy", which has morphed into a suburban strategy (with just enough racism to fire up the base). Trump tries his best to carry the (stars and bars) flag. Sometimes that dog don't hunt. People in the suburbs call bullshit. They aren't afraid of people of color, and often are people of color. Other times, there is just enough misinformation that people assume the worst. Sure, my particular city is doing fine, but other cities suck, because of them damn liberals. The same thing applies to school. The teaching of "woke" history is often quite appropriate (high schools are capable of learning that the civil war really was about slavery) but all it takes is rumors of kindergarten kids being brainwashed to hate America, and you win Florida. Sometimes The Right tries different things in an attempt to divide America (it is all they got, since they continue to lose on all the important issues) but they are all just variations on the same theme.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/seattle-is-once-again-the-fastest-growing-big-city-census-data-shows/

Another thought: The right yearns for the days of White Flight. They hope it is based more on urban fear, and less on racism, but the same basic idea. The city becomes untenable, and people flock to the suburbs to escape it. This has played a huge part in the rise of right, which is the era we are living in. The last truly effective left-wing president was Lyndon Johnson. In that time we have a couple of very effective reactionary presidents (Reagan, George W. Bush) and a nationalist (Trump). At the same time, Congress has moved to the right in dramatic fashion. None of this would have happened without the rise of the suburbs, and White Flight.

As the cities become more like cities around the world, this political tactic becomes more difficult. The suburbs are not made up of people who fear the city, but people who can't afford it. They want things that only the left can offer (health care, free day care, etc.). The problem The Left have is that despite the great interest in living in the city, they have largely closed the gates. There is a world wide movement to the city, but most cities in Europe and Asia simply build more places to live. Or they build up their inner suburbs (like outside of Paris) which become great and affordable places to live, even if they lack the charm of the old city. But in the U. S., they don't do any of this. As a result, cities like New York and San Fransisco are still too damn expensive, even in the rough times. As a result, they shrink (or at the very least, don't grow as fast as they should). It is a bizarre situation, really. A major city like New York, with sky high rents, is losing people. There is great demand, yet people are leaving. This can only be explained by zoning -- something that has crippled this country for quite some time.

@11 Yep.

@8 Boeing started leaving years ago. When I come home to Seattle I laugh because I see all of the right's fear mongering about crime run amok and people shitting on the sidewalks and anarchy and whatnot and it's just not true. Let's just admit it's a ploy to punish the poor and give more money to right-leaning institutions like the cops.

As environmental catastrophe looms and places like Phoenix and Las Vegas continue to grow at insanely unsustainable rates, Seattle will remain a place that (smart) people want to move to because, despite its problems, it's not in (as) immediate danger of running out of water.

@16 If you don't think people shitting on the sidewalk is happening, you need to spend more time downtown.

It's rare that I don't encounter shit on the sidewalk (or, surprisingly often, inexplicably smeared on a wall) when I visit my office on 4th. This is especially true early in the morning before the daily cleansing of the doorways and sidewalks by the Downtown Association and property managers. It's one thing to contend this is not that big a deal, but pretending it's not happening is disingenuous.

When you have thousands of people with untreated substance abuse and mental health problems living outdoors with little to no access to sanitary facilities, you are gonna end up with some turds on the ground.

Catalina, I'm not sure how to respond to you without you getting all riled up and angry towards me but the reason downtown is failing is because of rampant crime. People are blatantly walking into stores and taking what they want and leaving without paying; paying customers are afraid to go there for fear of being accosted and robbed of their purchases when they leave. That is why Nordstrom left downtown San Francisco. It is the same in Seattle; people do not feel safe. Two sundays ago the Seattle Times ran a feature article about how Seattle now lacks any sort of night life, again people don't feel safe.

Boeing will still have a presence in Seattle but their plane assembly will be gradually shifted out of state. Product assembly does not require that much in the way of training and extensive college level education. I don't say that to denigrate the workers; I've done a lot of assembly work myself but it's not that difficult to learn. Seattle is coming close to killing the goose that laid the the golden egg.

Bertha dear, don't project your emotions onto me. I'm not riled up and angry. Just bemused.

Boeing has shifted assembly out of state for decades. They opened a huge facility in Wichita in (maybe?) the 70's, and closed it a few years back. Recently, they've been beefing up their facilities in Moses Lake. It makes sense that they might refine their real estate holdings in the region, as land becomes more valuable and taxes more onerous. As for the level of skill it takes for assembly, Boeing itself found out that the Puget Sound region has far more skilled workers than the factories in bumpkinville

As for crime yes, shoplifting is a problem but it's not limited to downtown. You see it quite clearly down in the Rainier Valley, when the supermarkets have installed controlled entrance gates, but to single that out as the reason Nordstrom pulled out of San Francisco is to gloss over the very real fact that Nordstrom is aggressively cutting costs. In March they announced that they were closing their Canadian operations, and I don't see anyone blaming that on crime.

Breaking windows seems to be a thing the kids are doing these days, but that's not limited to Seattle. I've seen it in the suburbs and even in places like Ephrata.

Downtown reminds me of the downtown of the early 90's, after Frederick's and I Magnin went belly up, and scores of small business dried up as a result of both that and the effects of the cut-and-cover construction method of the metro tunnel, which decimated both Third Avenue and Pine Street. We had a moral panic about crime then as well, especially after some teens pushed a tourist down some steps and she made it her goal to villainize Seattle as a hotbed of anti-social behavior.

As for poor old Detroit, Our Dear Anthroprise Me is correct. I'll just add that it was also the victim of decades of systemic racism on the part of both government housing policies and organized labor.

@#1 - "Most Red cities of comparable size to Seattle (what few Red cities there are) have HIGHER violent crime rates. Dallas. Houston."

What on Earth are you on about? There has been only one Republican mayor in Dallas since 1995 (Tom Leppert, mayor from 2007 - 2011), and the city council has been solidly Democratic for years also. The last time Houston had a Republican mayor was in 1978–1982 (Jim McConn), and Houston's city council has been solidly Democratic for years also.

As far as violent crime goes, guess what both Dallas and Houston also have lots and lots more of than Seattle does? Go on, I bet you'll never be able to guess the correct answer.

"guess what both Dallas and Houston also have lots and lots more of than Seattle does?:

Republicans? Guns? Untreated tertiary Syphilis?

@22
Red states also tend to arrest, hold and prosecute criminals rather than turning them loose with little or no bail.

Asaxman5537 dear, red states also tend to use private prisons that are profit centers.

Interesting. I'm suspicious of "should"s not because they're "unscientific" but because normally when someone is shoulding what they're actually saying is "somebody else should solve this problem". Not always, but frequently. I'm suspicious of the "unscientific" critique, because physics envy is not healthy. Yes, physicists have accomplished amazing, previously unbelievable things (for both good and ill) with the power of their method, but their method works so well because it is tailored to their subject matter. Trying to transplant the method onto a different subject will not have the same results, and has the potential to cause great harm (see: the field of economics).

I did not realize that CD is mostly white now. I don't live in CD but I live near there, and I've seen signs branding it "Africatown". I've also seen a fair number of white people walking around, so I assumed that it was a mostly black district just starting the process of white-ification. Seems like I was wrong. That makes me sad. I'm white, so the rest of this paragraph is speculative, but it's always seemed t me that ID is helpful to the Asian-American community. It gives people who feel alienated by their ethnicity a place that feels accepting and "homey". Obviously this is not the ideal solution - the very idea of ethnicity (distinct from culture) is bullshit, and we should be aiming for a society that has no concept of race. But that is not the society that we live in, and we will not achieve a raceless society by shutting our eyes and ears to the ways in which the actually existing concept of race impacts us. Just like we can't achieve a classless society by ignoring the existence of income and wealth inequality. I thought that having an actual Africatown which is recognized as such would give black people the same kind of experience that Asian people have in ID, but it seems that is no longer possible.

Also a similar comment on your discussion of CH not being as queer a district in the linked article. I feel more comfortable in CH than, say, Downtown. I am mostly masculine-appearing and you probably wouldn't look twice if you saw me on the street, but if you spend a minute talking to me you'll probably notice some gender non-conforming qualities. When I've gone to stores downtown, I've gotten some actively hostile remarks. I'm thinking in particular about a Target clerk who unlocked some razors to me, and said something surface-level nice but mean-spirited about me when I went to a differently gendered razor than they expected. I've never had a similar experience on Broadway, in fact I've noticed some people being self-concious when unsure about which pronouns they should use for me. Not that I want people to be uncomfortable, but the difference between "actively hostile" and "uncertain and worried" is stark. I basically don't go downtown any more because I've had a few bad experiences, and have noticed that I tend to overreact to even small & innocent things. Which is partly on me, but I just don't have to deal with that when I go to Broadway, so I go to Broadway. It's nicer there.

@3 Catalina Vel-DuRay I still believe we can do the right thing.