Locke attributed his decision to family concerns, but his support among key Democratic constituencies, including big labor, teachers, and progressives, was tepid at best. In private, many Dems, particularly in Seattle, were rolling their eyes at the prospect of Locke running again, and the governor has been dogged by a reputation in party circles as a dithering, risk-averse do-nothing, albeit one heavily favored to win reelection. While he undercut the "disappearing governor" image with his forceful support of a painful no-new-taxes budget and undeniably popular, if economically dubious, massive corporate welfare subsidies to Boeing in the recent legislative session, his centrist positioning further alienated party activists.
Locke's decision was followed almost immediately by Attorney General Christine Gregoire's announcement that she was throwing her hat in the ring. Gregoire is close to Locke, enjoys strong name recognition, is likely to draw strong Democratic machine support, and as a woman is thought to have an advantage with Washington State voters. Best known for negotiating the national tobacco settlement, Gregoire will make an excellent candidate, according to state Democratic Party chair Paul Berendt.
So far Gregoire's only announced competition for the Democratic nomination is former state supreme court justice Phil Talmadge, who is positioning himself as a left-leaning, anti-Olympia Establishment progressive. Talmadge blasts Locke and Gregoire as sellouts bent on sacrificing traditional Democratic constituencies on the altar of electoral advantage: Locke's budget was "the best Republican budget a governor could pass. It was atrocious," he contends, while Gregoire "is now going to have to explain herself on issues." Berendt's suggestion that Talmadge might do better to run for Gregoire's office is met with a flat rejection. "No. Absolutely, fundamentally no," Talmadge says when asked if he might consider such an idea.
Several other Democratic big guns are seriously considering getting into the mix. King County Executive Ron Sims says he will decide by next week whether to run. A charming speaker with prodigious political performance skills, Sims carries the political albatross of Sound Transit around his neck, which would hurt him outside Seattle, while his ham-fisted attempts to subvert the monorail initiative have damaged him with urban grassroots activists. Suburban congressman Jay Inslee also issued a statement saying he is leaning toward running. Inslee is a pro-environment corporate-accountability liberal who has also proven his appeal with centrist voters. Snohomish County Executive Bob Drewel, another Sound Transit Democrat, is also said to be considering taking a run at the brass ring.
All of this frou-frah is an indication of the Democratic Party's strength and its deep talent pool, Berendt contends. "Democrats are simply more confident they can win than Republicans are," he says. Several big-name Republicans have already passed on a gubernatorial bid. Democrats have held the governorship continuously since 1984.
But Washington Republican Party chair Chris Vance says he was gleeful upon learning of Locke's announcement. Locke, as a proven fundraiser and vote-getter, was the Democrats' "best candidate," he says. "I think he was driven out of the race by the left wing of the Democratic Party." Vance predicts a brutal Democratic primary battle that will bloody the eventual nominee while drawing the party left. "I'm hoping they all follow Howard Dean right off the cliff," he says.
Conversely, Republicans are likely to unify early behind one candidate. Vance touts three possibilities, all of whom he says boast strong moderate credentials: Bob Herbold, a semi-retired Microsoft executive, King County Council Member and Sound Transit critic Rob McKenna, or state senator Dino Rossi.
McKenna says Herbold is the first choice of the Republican Party and thinks Herbold will run after being urged to take the plunge by Karl Rove. Herbold has said he will announce his decision in upcoming weeks; only if he chooses not to run will McKenna or Rossi get in the race. As for his own ambitions, McKenna says he is far more likely to run for attorney general in 2004.
