Everyone's obsessing about the House and Senate, House and Senate, House and Senate. All well and good—control of Congress matters quite a bit in D.C.—but what about that little house and senate down in Olympia? Who will control its chambers after November 2? And: What will it all mean?
In one respect, the answers to these questions are similar to all the answers you're hearing right now about the national power struggle. When it comes to the state capital in Olympia, it's pretty much certain that Democrats will retain control of the state senate chambers, though most likely with a margin slimmer than their current supermajority. It's another story, however, in the state house, where Democrats also have a current supermajority. "The house could be the one to go, just like at the national level," said state senator Jeanne Kohl-Welles of Seattle's 36th District (Queen Anne, Ballard, and Magnolia). State representative Jamie Pedersen, of Seattle's 43rd District (Capitol Hill, the University of Washington, and downtown), agrees. "In terms of the house, I would say that the majority is very much up in the air," he said.
Only state Democratic Party chair Dwight Pelz, who is paid to have a more optimistic view, has, well, a more optimistic view. "We expect to lose some seats in the house and some seats in the senate," Pelz said. "But we will retain control of both bodies." (Luke Esser, chair of the Washington State Republican Party, did not respond to a request for his predictions.)
The math for building a majority in the Washington State Legislature is a bit different than the math for building one in the U.S. Congress, so it's worth revisiting as Election Day approaches. This state has 49 legislative districts, with one state senator and two state representatives given to each. That means 49 politicians serve in the state senate, while 98 serve in the state house. Right now, the Democratic supermajorities look like this: 31 Democrats running the state senate and 61 Democrats running the state house.
Though this election season may be tough on a number of Eastside Democrats whose recent ascendance in swingy suburban districts helped build that senate supermajority—state senators Eric Oemig (D-Kirkland), Rodney Tom (D-Bellevue), and Randy Gordon (D-Mercer Island) come up a lot when the conversation turns to incumbents facing tough reelection races—it's hard to see how Republicans would get all seven of the additional senate seats they need in order to recapture that chamber.
On the house side, Republicans need 13 seats to climb back into the majority, and given the political climate and the larger number of house races under way this year, that's seen as more doable. Just like at the national level, frustration with the economy is the number one driver of a "throw the bums out" current of voter frustration in this state, and that helps the aims of majority-craving Republicans.
Senator Kohl-Welles said that if voters look closely at the issues, they'll find that Democrats offer a better path forward on the economy. "I just cannot fathom, if people really looked into it all carefully, that they would think the Republicans would be better for them," she said. But it's obvious that voters don't agree with this assessment.
An October 15 Washington Poll found voters in this state were evenly split on who should control the legislature, with 35 percent saying it should be Republicans, 35 percent saying it should be Democrats, and a full 18 percent saying it "makes no difference." That last number hints at some of the interesting new political realities that could result from Republican gains—whether they come in the form of a state house takeover or not—this fall.
Start with this premise, affirmed by the recent Washington Poll: Democratic superÂmajorities have not produced a huge fan base in Washington State for strong Democratic rule in Olympia.
Liberals on the left are mad that Democrats haven't used their power to push hard on progressive issues such as reforming Washington's notoriously regressive tax structure. Conservatives on the right feel like all the supermajorities have done is raise their taxes.
As a result, large numbers of Democrats and Republicans may be looking to find something important to actually agree on next session. This could have the effect of elevating moderate Democrats in the so-called Roadkill Caucus (so-called because they say they usually get run over by the right and left) to kingmaker status, because it will be difficult or impossible to get a legislation-passing majority without their buy-in.
Those are people like conservative Democratic senators Tim Sheldon of Potlatch and Steve Hobbs of Lake Stevens (a founding member of the caucus). "We're going to have to work across the aisle more than we did in the past," Hobbs said recently by phone, while standing on a corner waving campaign signs. "Which I think is a good thing. There will be more of a voice of the moderates, thankfully."
That is, if these moderates—whom progressives often see as obstructionists (or, worse, turncoats) on issues ranging from marijuana-law reform to tax-loophole reform—retain their seats. The eight senators and 17 house members in the Democratic Roadkill Caucus are moderates, in part, because they hail from swing districts, and it's in precisely those districts that Democrats are most vulnerable this year. If enough Roadkill Caucus members end up as political roadkill on November 2, well, so much for the kingmaker theory.
In that case, it'll just be that many more Republicans that Democrats have to negotiate with, which could provide its own kind of political fireworks—and stalemates. Senator Kohl-Welles said that whatever new dynamics appear because of Republican gains, the new realities "will be very pronounced in the budget discussions, particularly if there's any consideration of new revenue."
And there no doubt will be consideration of new revenue (aka taxes), given that, just as in this year's session, the major business of the next legislative session is going to be dealing with the same political downer that's at the center of this election: the Great Recession and the resulting mammoth budget shortfalls for state government. 
