It sure seemed like a victory for local low-income housing advocates. Conservative Council Members Margaret Pageler and Richard McIver actually went along with lefties Nick Licata and Peter Steinbrueck in a July 17 committee vote supporting activist demands for the Rainier Vista low-income housing project.

Unfortunately, it may be a short-lived victory. The city council canceled a July 23 full council vote, where it seemed likely to formalize the promising committee vote. The postponement of that vote has activists fearful that Pageler and McIver are now wavering.

At issue is the rezoning of Rainier Vista at MLK Jr. Way South and South Edmunds Street in Rainier Valley. Two years ago, the Feds gave Seattle $35 million to change Rainier Vista from a 480-unit low-income housing project (where the average single income is $9,000 to $10,000 a year) into a mixed-use community, with only 350 low-income units. The rest of the new units there will be market rate or well above low-income standards.

To the chagrin of housing advocates, the loss of 130 low-income units will be "covered" by giving vouchers and credits to nonprofit developers building elsewhere. Not only does that upend the lives of current Rainier Vista residents, but as Seattle Displacement Coalition spokesperson John Fox points out, the nonprofit developers are simply being asked to build units they had already planned to build in the first place. The result: a net loss in Seattle's low-income housing over the long haul. "You're simply robbing Peter to pay Paul," Fox says.

Moreover, as evidenced by the displacement that rocked residents at a similar housing makeover at Holly Park in 1997, the off-site replacement units don't even have to be in Seattle.

Steinbrueck, Licata, and Judy Nicastro--along with 170 of Rainier Vista's residents, the King County Democrats, and the 37th District Democrats--all formally rejected the Rainier Vista plan in 1999. Having lost that battle, folks like John Fox are hoping for the next best thing: using the required rezone process to extract as many concessions as possible from the Seattle Housing Authority, which is heading up the Rainier Vista revamp. Concessions could include requiring the project to drum up new funding sources for replacement housing, which, Fox says, would minimize the sham of counting already-slated construction as valid replacement construction.

Judging from last week's committee meeting, a five-to-four majority seemed to be in place to vote for a meaningful rezone. (Licata, Steinbrueck, Nicastro, Pageler, and McIver were all set to vote for what is known as Contract Rezone--as opposed to the more ephemeral and weak-kneed Legislative Rezone.)

However, the Seattle Housing Authority, which advocates the questionable Legislative Rezone, is reportedly lobbying McIver and Pageler to change their votes.

josh@thestranger.com