With Republicans like Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel and Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar, and--truly shocking--Democrat John Kerry blasting the war (two Americans were beheaded early this week), the focus of the election has rightfully come back to Bush's incompetence in Iraq, as opposed to his delinquency in Vietnam. And so, we're lowering the Bush reelection threat one notch from "severe" to "high." The threat might have actually slipped two notches if it hadn't been for goofball Dan "Courage" Rather. --JF

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