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I'm gonna be over here, voting Green and eating popcorn as half the country tears itself apart for entertainment while the rest of the populace either doesn't vote or gives the other candidate their anti-vote (I'm voting Hillary because I hate her less than Trump, I'm voting Trump because I hate Hillary). It will be disturbingly entertaining.
Fuck this country.
The thing that Trump has seriously working against him is that presidential elections have a tendency to see significant turn out from people other than old white bigots.
I'll stick with my prediction that he loses 40 states, and the Dems take the Senate.
BRING UP THE HAIR.
Trump lies a lot more than many other politicians. Compare:
she has 2205, he has 1401. you need 2383 to win. she needs 178, he needs 982. 1159 remain. so, he needs 84% of the remaining delegates.
Presidential elections don't have to continue to be about a narrowly focused barrage of attention by the media, candidates, pollsters, strategists, organizers, and ads in the handful of unrepresentative swing states that dominate and determine the general election, while most of the country is politically irrelevant.
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in every presidential election. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps of pre-determined outcomes. There would no longer be a handful of 'battleground' states (where the two major political parties happen to have similar levels of support among voters) where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in 38+ predictable states that have just been 'spectators' and ignored after the conventions.
The National Popular Vote bill would take effect when enacted by states with a majority of the electoral votes—270 of 538.
All of the presidential electors from the enacting states will be supporters of the presidential candidate receiving the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC)—thereby guaranteeing that candidate with an Electoral College majority.
The bill has passed 34 state legislative chambers in 23 rural, small, medium, large, red, blue, and purple states with 261 electoral votes. The bill has been enacted by 11 small, medium, and large jurisdictions with 165 electoral votes – 61% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
Last quarter alone, Clinton raised over $15mm for down ticket Democratic races. Please, tell us again how much Sanders has raised for those same down-ticket candidates? Go ahead, we'll wait.
Start with the solidly blue states, which have voted Dem in the last six elections: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI. In other words, states with a lot of Dems and independents. Those voters hate Trump: he's at -70 and -27 favorability, respectively. So Trump isn't going to flip any blue states. Total electoral votes: 242.
Total needed to win the presidency: 271. Clinton just needs to find 29 electoral votes among the states that aren't solidly in her corner. We can presume she won't flip any of the red states: AL, AK, ID, KS, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TX, UT, or WY. But that's only 102 electoral votes. That leaves 191 "contestable" electoral votes, and Clinton just needs to win 15% of them. By the same token, Trump needs to win 85% of the contestable states. So there are many, many more ways Clinton can win than Trump.
For instance, if Clinton takes FL (split 50/50 over last six elections): she wins. If she takes IA, NH, NM (who went blue 5/6 times) and Ohio (blue 4/6 times): she wins. If she takes IA, NH, NM, plus NV (4 out of 6) and CO (3 out of 6): she wins. And so on. Trump basically has to run the table on Clinton-- including states that *usually* go blue-- to win. A less hated man could do it. But Trump is wildly hated outside the GOP and even hated by some within his own party. Not gonna happen.
But that doesn't even matter that much. More and more money has been getting dumped into politics and fewer and fewer people show up to vote. You need money to play, but the way the money is spent is just making people stay home more and more. A candidate who inspires independents is going to bring more people to the polls than trainloads of dollars will, and right now the GOP has the candidate who inspires (the meat head) independents.