All of These Pundits Were Wrong About Trump


Makes you wonder what the chances are that Trump ends up beating Hillary in November? My guess...better than we think.

Be scared people...very scared.
@1: Yep.
@1 Name the states from Obama's 2012 election map that Trump can flip.

The people who said Trump couldn't win the nomination were all saying the polls were wrong. People who are now saying he won't win the general are saying the polls are right. This is a crucial difference.

Which is not to say its impossible. The Democrats have a structural advantage in Presidential elections. Clinton doesn't have much talent as a politician and she's blown a gimme before, in 2008. But her greatest weakness is her dire negatives and the GOP went and nominated a guy with even worse negatives. You gotta figure she's got the inside track.
@1, Greater than zero, but not much. Republicans couldn't go to hard on him because they need his voters, and they couldn't attack his platform because the only thing that distinguishes it from any given "mainstream" Republican is the crude and vulgar way he expressed it. Unsustainable tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy, hating Muslims and Mexicans, and treating women like garbage are all bad looks in the general election but it's red meat for conservative voters. Democrats have none of these problems. He will be flayed alive.
The establishment Dems aren't doing us any favors with their kamikaze mission to install a Clinton/Goldmine Sacks kleptocracy.

They're dangerously out of touch with the inchoate frustration and impotent rage felt by most Americans towards the thieving eCONomic and political 1% oligarchy that Hillary Clinton epitomizes. This anger is fueling the fascist Trump movement and will not be quelled by the usual campaign bullshit platitudes.
@4: Rust Belt.
it's all ogre now
Name the states: Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, that's 40 EV. Still not the full 64 he'd need to flip, but there were other close states, and a lone terrorist shooting up a Berlin disco could give him a boost any time.

Can we put in place a "let it burn!" ban?
I was worried, but then raindrop said to worry, so now I'm not.
@7, @9
Right now, Clinton flips AZ, MO, NC, & UT and Trump flips none.
I guess this makes sense as a general point about the media, but not so much with Nate Silver and Their entire reason for existence is interpreting polls and predicting who is going to win.
@10: - Good. I've always been concerned about your blood pressure.
It's really fucking rich for reporters here at the Stranger to point at others and laugh at being wrong.

Also, when someone says "there is a low chance of something happening" and it happens, it doesn't mean they're wrong.