2016 Jul 25, 2016 at 11:52 am

Nate Silver Predicts If the Election Were Held Today, Donald Trump Would Win

Christopher Frizzelle
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Comments

1
OH, PA, FL all pale red.

so he got a bounce. bounces happen.
Max Solomon on July 25, 2016 at 11:54 AM Report this
3
Bull to the shit. Trump will be lucky to get 200 delegates.
JonnoN on July 25, 2016 at 11:59 AM Report this
4
@2 -- I see your point, my headline's misleading. Fixing it.
Christopher Frizzelle on July 25, 2016 at 11:59 AM Stranger Staff
5
If the best his convention bounce can get him is +.3 in the popular, that's a seriously good reason to un-shit your pants.
LukeJosef on July 25, 2016 at 12:01 PM Report this
6
oh ffs, this always happens after the convention, it happened with romney and he was never going to win. give it a week.
Joestork on July 25, 2016 at 12:01 PM Report this
7
Here is some reassurance.
http://www.vox.com/2016/7/25/12270288/do…

Also, we will see how Russiangate plays out.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-hac…
cgd on July 25, 2016 at 12:01 PM Report this
7
There there Christopher don't get all frazzled this prediction is based on current polling right after the Republican convention, it doesn't mean shit. Nor will the one that comes out right after the Democratic convention. Nor the one after that. It is trends in polling after Labor day that will start to matter. Till then it is all just fart gas.
Machiavelli was framed on July 25, 2016 at 12:01 PM Report this
9
Better double check your source: 538 predicts 57% chance of winning but with a 0.3% margin of victory (and a boatload of disclaimers).
melli on July 25, 2016 at 12:36 PM Report this
10
@3: You mean electoral votes, not delegates.
raindrop on July 25, 2016 at 12:44 PM Report this
11
"57% chance to win the electoral college" is the quote, not that he would win by 15%.
unpaid reader on July 25, 2016 at 12:51 PM Report this
12
Well good fucking that that the election isn't held a few days after the republican convention and before the democratic convention.

Seriously, is this your first fucking election? Do you not understand what a convention bump is? The same fucking thing happens every cycle including in 2008. Were you even aware of politics back then?

Christ, take your fucking meds, quit wetting the bed and take a political science class.
Solk512 on July 25, 2016 at 1:00 PM Report this
13
@4: Fuck me sideways, it doesn't take you half long to fix a headline, does it? One hour later and it's still wrong.
venomlash on July 25, 2016 at 1:08 PM Report this
14
Despite what the DNC wanted/didn't want, Hillary got more primary votes and more superdelegate votes. I doubt if Wasserman Schultz was able to influence the vote of Jane Smith in California, or Joe Smith in Colorado.
sarah91 on July 25, 2016 at 1:15 PM Report this
15
Doomed. We're doomed.
Gurldoggie on July 25, 2016 at 1:31 PM Report this
16
@4: Your headline is not "misleading", it's wrong. It's almost as if you have no clue what you're writing about.
DOUG. on July 25, 2016 at 1:51 PM Report this
17
@16 - Something can be wrong and misleading. They are not mutually exclusive. This headline, for example is wrong. It is also misleading.
brent.b on July 25, 2016 at 2:14 PM Report this
18
Only Bernie can beat Trump. I warned Nate.
Will in Seattle on July 25, 2016 at 2:26 PM Report this
19
In an election year that has been choke full of anti-establishment politics the anti-establishment candidate is ahead? Color me shocked!!!

At this point in our political climate we are beyond if we end up with a freak like Trump but when we end up with it.
Cato the Younger Younger on July 25, 2016 at 2:40 PM Report this
19
Majority of voters are dumb... Sad, but true. Let's just hope Trump is better at convincing them than the political establishment is!
MeIavecchia on July 25, 2016 at 2:40 PM Report this
20
@19 that the voters are dumb? The Democrats are are really good at talking down to voters while the GOP is good at fucking them over.

But let's be honest: polling around the conventions is pointless. Let's look at Nate's numbers mid August and see if we should kill ourselves.
Cato the Younger Younger on July 25, 2016 at 2:42 PM Report this
21
Yes, there's always a bump, but this is a bump that brings things really close. This wasn't supposed to be that close of an election, because Trump is so terrible. But it is now close, and that is genuinely scary.
Jude Fawley on July 25, 2016 at 2:43 PM Report this
22
@19: yep, lots of voters are dumb. not all, but a lot.

it's more accurate to say: their decision-making is irrational; knowing Trump's a bully and con man, but at the same time thinking he's "honest and trustworthy" and on their side. blaming Obama for an economy that's "not good enough" when we're at historic low unemployment levels. believing Clinton is personally responsible for the deaths at Benghazi.

irrational.
Max Solomon on July 25, 2016 at 3:05 PM Report this
23
Well, as an older person here, I've seen many elections.

However, this one does give me pause at this precise point in time. See Michael Moore's five reasons Trump will win.

I like to believe that while there are people who have to hold their nose as they vote for some candidates, I'd hope that there are far, far fewer who vote out of spite. (See Brexit as three million people asked for a do-over and there was no shortage of people willing to say they voted wrongly.)

As for this report I disagree - I think either someone will win by a landslide or it will be very, very close.
westello on July 25, 2016 at 3:18 PM Report this
24
Okay, everyone, I changed the headline again, because I still had it wrong.
Christopher Frizzelle on July 25, 2016 at 3:32 PM Stranger Staff
25
It's July. By the time real-deal time rolls around anyone with half a brain will realize they don't want a zero-experience narcissist nutjob who might become America's Erdogan at worst. Unless Clinton continues fucking up her campaign.
The CHZA on July 25, 2016 at 6:50 PM Report this
26
@25: fun dayn moyl in got's oyem.

she hasn't even started her campaign. she's got zillions in the bank, a staff of 1,000s of sarcastic assholes, she'll make him look like an a unserious, ignorant, clown in the debate(s?), and she harbors no illusions about bipartisanship.

i don't expect she'll convince my dad, however.
Max Solomon on July 25, 2016 at 7:05 PM Report this
27
Trump could win.

Don't write him off with wishful thinking about post-convention bumps.
abc on July 26, 2016 at 12:11 AM Report this

Please wait...

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